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The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation tracker shows cooling prices. Here’s the impact on rates.

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An inflation measure closely tracked by the Federal Reserve slowed to its smallest annual increase in three years, prompting some Wall Street economists to forecast an increased likelihood that the central bank could cut rates in September. 

The personal consumption expenditures index, or PCE, rose 2.6% in May on a year-over-year basis, the U.S. Commerce Department said on Friday. That represents its lowest increase since March 2021, according to EY senior economist Lydia Boussour in a Friday report, adding that it signals “cooler consumer spending momentum and easing inflation.”

The Federal Reserve earlier this month scaled back its forecast to just one rate cut in 2024 from its prior expectation for three reductions due to stubborn inflation, which remains higher than the central bank’s 2% annual target. Friday’s PCE numbers could portend an increasing likelihood that the Fed could cut rates at its September meeting, Wall Street economists said. 

“[T]he market is now giving the Fed the green light to consider a rate cut at their September 18th meeting. Currently, the odds for a rate cut at that meeting are approximately 75%,” wrote John Kerschner, head of U.S. securitised products at Janus Henderson Investors, in a Friday email. 

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core inflation rose 0.1% from April to May, the smallest increase since the spring of 2020, when the pandemic erupted and shut down the economy. 

Prices for physical goods actually fell 0.4% from April to May. Gasoline prices, for example, dropped 3.4%, furniture prices 1% and the prices of recreational goods and vehicles 1.6%. On the other hand, prices for services, which include items like restaurant meals and airline fares, ticked up 0.2%.

The Fed has raised its benchmark rate 11 times since 2022 in its drive to curb the hottest inflation in four decades. Inflation has cooled substantially from its peak in 2022, yet average prices remain far above where they were before the pandemic, a source of frustration for many Americans and a potential threat to President Joe Biden’s re-election bid.

—With reporting from the Associated Press.



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7/3: The Daily Report with John Dickerson

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7/3: The Daily Report with John Dickerson – CBS News


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John Dickerson reports on the status of the Biden campaign amid calls for the former president to step aside, the takeaways from a meeting between Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi, and a look at the holiday weekend travel rush.

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Sam Woodward found guilty of murder as a hate crime in death of Blaze Bernstein

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An Orange County, California, jury found 26-year-old Sam Woodward guilty of first-degree murder with a hate crime enhancement Wednesday for the 2018 death of Blaze Bernstein, whose body was found days after he went missing, buried in a shallow grave at a Lake Forest park. 

The jury reached its verdict after deliberating for just one day. 

The judge hushed the courtroom as applause was heard during the reading of the verdict. 

The prosecution had argued for Woodward to be found guilty of first-degree murder as a hate crime. Defense attorneys argued that Woodward should be convicted for voluntary manslaughter and acquitted of hate-crime allegations. 

Jurors also were asked to consider second-degree murder. Closing arguments in the case had begun Friday, two-and-a-half months after the trial began in Santa Ana. 

Following the reading of the guilty verdict, Bernstein’s parents shared their gratitude to the jury, to law enforcement and to the “army of supporters and volunteers” who were with them through the six-and-a-half-year ordeal.

“This was a great relief that justice was served and this despicable human, who murdered our son, will no longer be a threat to the public,” his mother Jeanne Pepper Bernstein said.  “We are grateful to the jury for their service and their long days and weeks they spent in that service. Justice has been served.” 

Sam Woodward was charged with stabbing Bernstein to death a little over six years ago. The Newport Beach man admitted to stabbing Bernstein, a 19-year-old gay, Jewish man, multiple times in 2018, but pleaded not guilty to murder with an enhancement for a hate crime.

Orange County prosecutor Jennifer Walker maintained to jurors that Woodward stabbed Bernstein, his former high school classmate, because he was gay, and buried his body at Borrego Park in Lake Forest.

“To dig a grave in that terrain, and bury and clean up and murder someone in an hour and half..that is not someone who is just going, ‘Oh..something happened and I need to figure it out.’ That is determined,” Walker said.

Bernstein, who was a college sophomore, was home visiting his family on winter break in January 2018 when he went missing after going with Woodward to a park in Lake Forest, California. Woodward picked Bernstein up from his parents’ home after connecting with him on social media.

Bernstein’s parents found his glasses, wallet and credit cards in his bedroom the next day when he missed a dentist appointment and wasn’t responding to texts or calls, prosecutors wrote in a trial brief.

Days later, Bernstein’s body was found buried at the park in a shallow grave.

The case took years to go to trial after questions were raised about Woodward’s mental state and following defense attorney changes. Woodward was deemed competent to stand trial in late 2022.  

Woodward took the stand for several days and confessed to jurors that he stabbed Bernstein multiple times. 

DNA evidence linked Woodward to the killing and his cellphone contained troves of anti-gay, antisemitic and hate group materials, authorities said.

“Now with the verdict in hand, we believe justice has been served and that Blaze’s memory will be honored through this outcome,” Pepper Bernstein said.



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Hurricane Beryl churns past Jamaica

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Hurricane Beryl churns past Jamaica – CBS News


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After causing major destruction in Granada, Beryl was roaring by Jamaica on Wednesday as a Category 4 hurricane. Ahead of its arrival, Jamaica’s prime minister issued a disaster zone declaration as thousands evacuated flood-prone areas. Tom Hanson has the latest.

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