CBS News
CBS News poll: Gender gap, enthusiasm, economy make for tight Harris-Trump race on Democratic convention eve
When Kamala Harris became the Democratic presidential nominee, the party saw a major surge in enthusiasm from its voters. It pulled the party into an effectively even race with Donald Trump and Republicans, and it has continued to motivate Democrats to vote today.
She and Trump are even across the battleground states that will decide the Electoral College, and now Harris has a 3-point edge nationally.
The late-changing campaign has also opened an historic dynamic, a race within the race to define both Harris and the key issues.
Trump, for his part, keeps a lot of his advantages: he leads with people who say the economy is a major factor, and he leads with voters who say they aren’t doing as well financially.
Yet voters tell us it’s about more issues than that — abortion, the state of democracy, the border among them — and the contest is marked by a pronounced gender gap between men and women and very different views of which candidate would help them.
Heading into the convention, many voters are still learning about Harris, creating a crucial test for the party this week. A third says they don’t yet know what she stands for. Most voters think her views are similar — but not entirely the same — as Joe Biden’s. And she’s somewhat — but not entirely — seen as connected to Mr. Biden’s economy.
Democrats have continued to close the gap with Republicans in expressing their intention to vote; today, they are effectively even with Republicans in saying so.
Behind the gender-gap election
The gender gap has grown a little more and is approaching 2020 levels now. But it’s more than a vote break. It underpins very different priorities and perceptions.
First, women are more likely than men to see Harris as someone who “fights for people like you” a lot. And women are likelier to see Harris than Trump as fighting for people like them.
Second, views on gender equality efforts connect to voting.
People who think efforts at promoting gender equality between men and women are going too far in America today are voting overwhelmingly for Trump. That’s especially the case for men who think so.
Those who think efforts to promote equally aren’t going far enough or are about right are for Harris.
Third, women help Harris on the economy more than they did Mr. Biden.
Though still trailing Trump on the issue, Harris is doing 8 points better than Mr. Biden was in June among women who say the economy is a major factor for them. She’s effectively even with Trump now among this group. She is also 7 points better from where Mr. Biden was in June among women who say inflation is a major factor.
Abortion: Deja-vu from ’22?
For rank-and-file Democrats, abortion and the state of democracy outpace the economy as major factors in their vote.
Pro-abortion rights voters may feel even better about Harris than about Mr. Biden, at least in terms of vote. She gets a higher vote share than he was getting among women who want abortion to be legal.
And 71% of voters think Harris will try to pass a national law protecting abortion.
Three-quarters of voters want mifepristone available. Nine in 10 believe Harris would make or keep it so, while seven in 10 say Trump will try to restrict access to it.
But Democrats are far more likely than independents or Republicans to call abortion a major factor.
Fewer voters overall say abortion is a “major factor” in their vote than say the economy is.
So a key metric to watch in this campaign is whether that view expands more beyond the party’s ranks.
The race to define Harris (And how much separation from Biden does she need?)
People know Trump, agree with him or not. Nearly nine in 10 voters say they know what he stands for.
But it’s a little less so for Harris, as she’s just become the nominee. Around a third say they don’t know what she stands for yet.
This adds another key to watch at the convention as Democrats try to define her message before the Trump campaign does.
People who think her policy views are entirely the same as Mr. Biden’s, who are mostly Republicans, are voting for Trump.
But Harris does better among voters who think her views are mostly but not entirely the same as Mr. Biden’s. This clearly goes for Democrats, but it goes for independents too.
How tied is she to Biden’s economy?
The economy has long been seen as bad, but Harris’ role as vice president is only somewhat tied to it.
Most voters across party lines say Harris’ decisions as vice president have impacted the U.S. economy at least some, but few say they have had “a lot” of impact.
Meanwhile, Trump leads in perceptions of being able to make food and grocery prices go down. This was measured largely prior to Harris laying out inflation plans in a Friday speech. However that sentiment looks to be driven more by general confidence than by any particular policy.
When we follow up with voters who think Trump winning means lower grocery prices for them and ask why, most say it’s mainly because of a “general confidence” they have in Trump rather than specific policies they’ve heard him propose.
Whether Trump can keep or expand that gap, or Harris can start to close it, could be another key item to watch at the convention and in the coming weeks.
How tied is she to the border?
Trump remains overwhelmingly seen by voters as having policies that would reduce border crossings.
Trump also leads among those who say the border is a major factor in their vote. In fact it is the largest lead he has among any issue group, even higher than inflation. (That’s partially because Republicans overwhelmingly call it a factor.)
Harris is somewhat, but not entirely, tied to U.S. border policy: a third think her decisions as vice president had “a lot” to do with the current situation. While this is largely driven by Republicans, this is higher than the number of voters that connect her decisions as vice president to the economy.
But border crossing attempts are reportedly down, and the percentage of voters calling the border a crisis, while still high, is down slightly from the spring.
For all that, so much of this contest is already locked in. Very few voters express openness to considering another candidate — more evidence this will probably be decided by turnout.
So, for Democrats, the convention will in part be about maintaining that enthusiasm among the base.
Updated state-level estimates from CBS News’ statistical model show close races in all seven battlegrounds — they are all well within the margin of error, with both Harris and Trump in position to win if the election were today.
Here’s how the issues shape up relating to vote choice. Voters can identify multiple items as factors in their decision.
And that all leads into the Democrats’ convention as a guide to what to watch, as they — and Republicans countering it — compete in the contest within the contest to define what 2024 will ultimately be about.
This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a representative sample of 3,258 registered voters nationwide interviewed between August 14-16, 2024. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, as well as past vote. Respondents were selected to be representative of registered voters nationwide. The margin of error for registered voters is ±2.1 points.
Strapped into the SpaceX Crew Dragon capsule Endeavour, three NASA astronauts and a Russian cosmonaut returned to Earth early Friday, splashing down in the Gulf of Mexico to close out an extended 235-day expedition to the International Space Station.
After a high-speed re-entry above Central America and a steep descent to the Gulf, Crew 8 commander Matthew Dominick, co-pilot Michael Barratt, astronaut Jeanette Epps and cosmonaut Alexander Grebenkin settled to a gentle, on-target splashdown south of Pensacola, Florida, at 3:29 a.m. EDT.
NASA TV
A SpaceX team stationed nearby was on the scene within minutes to stabilize the capsule, make sure no toxic propellant fumes were present and then to haul it aboard a nearby recovery ship where NASA flight surgeons and support personnel were standing by to carry the returning station fliers out of the crew cabin.
Despite two hours of exercise per day throughout their stay in orbit, returning station astronauts need about a month or more to regain their “land legs” after months in the weightless environment of space.
As such, Dominick, Barratt, Epps and Grebenkin were expected to be carried out of the Crew Dragon and placed on stretchers before being rolled inside the ship for initial medical checks and calls to family and friends. All four appeared in good spirits, smiling and waving as they were rolled inside.
Mission duration was 235 days three hours and 35 minutes, during which the spacecraft circled the globe 3,776 times covering 100 million miles since launch from the Kennedy Space Center on March 3.
NASA
The crew originally expected to return to Earth in September. But the flight slipped into early October in the wake of a decision to delay the launch of their Crew 9 replacements because of problems with Boeing’s Starliner crew ferry ship.
NASA eventually ruled out bringing Starliner commander Barry “Butch” Wilmore and co-pilot Sunita Williams back to Earth aboard the Boeing spacecraft. Instead, the Starliner came down without its crew on September 7 and Crew 9 was launched with just two passengers — Nick Hague and cosmonaut Alexander Gobrunov — on Sept. 28.
That freed up two seats aboard the Crew Dragon for Wilmore and Williams to use when they come home next February with Hague and Gorbunov.
Sorting all that out pushed the Crew 8 departure into October. NASA and SpaceX then were repeatedly held up by high winds and rough seas at the approved splashdown sites, much of it related to hurricanes Helene and Milton.
But this week, conditions in the Gulf finally met NASA’s safety guidelines and the crew was cleared to undock and head for home.
With Crew 8 safely back on Earth, the Crew 9 crew will board their own Crew Dragon capsule early Sunday, Nov. 3, undock from the Harmony module’s forward port and then redock at its space-facing port.
The next day, an ISS-bound SpaceX cargo ship is scheduled for launch from the Kennedy Space Center. After an automated rendezvous, the ship will dock at the just vacated forward port on Nov. 5, election day in the United States.
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A 15-year-old boy was charged Thursday with murder in the shooting deaths of his parents and three of his siblings at a home in Fall City, Washington, according to court documents obtained by CBS News.
The teen, whose name is being withheld because he is a juvenile, was charged with five counts of aggravated murder in the slayings of his parents, Mark and Sarah Humiston, two brothers, ages 9 and 13, and his 7-year-old sister, per King County court records.
He was also charged with one count of attempted murder for shooting and wounding his 11-year-old sister, the documents read.
That girl was in “satisfactory condition” at Harborview Medical Center in Seattle, hospital spokesperson Susan Gregg told the Associated Press Tuesday.
Autopsies performed by the King County Medical Examiner’s Office determined that all five victims died of gunshot wounds. The handgun used in the shooting was believed to belong to the victim’s father, the court records state.
According to the charging documents, just before 5 a.m. Monday, the suspect called 911 with a false story in which he claimed that his 13-year-old brother “just shot my whole family and committed suicide too” at the family’s home in Fall City, which is a community located near Seattle.
However, at about the same time as that call, 911 dispatchers received a second call from a neighbor who lives about a quarter-mile away. That neighbor said the suspect’s 11-year-old sister had ran to his house and was bleeding from what appeared to be a gunshot wound, the documents said.
The girl said her entire family had been fatally shot and identified her 15-year-old brother as the shooter. The girl told dispatchers she was also shot by her brother and “then described holding her breath and playing dead,” the documents read. The girl later told detectives that she had escaped through a bedroom window.
Deputies responded to the Humiston home, where they found the suspect in the driveway and took him into custody, court records show. The five victims were found dead inside the home.
In a hospital interview with detectives later that day, the suspect’s surviving sister said that she identified the firearm used in the shooting as “her father’s silver Glock handgun,” court documents state.
She said that her father kept the pistol in a small lockbox that “he would sometimes put by the front door so he could bring it to work,” the documents read. She told detectives that the suspect was “the only one who knew the combination to the Glock lockbox.”
Investigators determined that the suspect “systematically murdered” his parents and siblings and “then staged the scene prior to the arrival of first responders to make it appear” that the murders had been committed by his 11-year-old brother, documents read.
The court documents did not speculate on a motive.
The suspect is scheduled to be arraigned Friday afternoon. The King County Prosecuting Attorney’s Office said in a news release Thursday that the suspect is in custody at the Clark Child and Family Justice Center, which is a juvenile facility.
The teen is currently being charged as a juvenile, and prosecutors said a judge will determine whether his case “will be moved to adult court.”
In a statement Tuesday, public defenders representing the suspect said that “our client is a 15-year-old boy who enjoys mountain biking and fishing and has no criminal history.”
