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How far will mortgage interest rates fall in November?
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Shortly after the pandemic, the Federal Reserve repeatedly raised interest rates in response to surging inflation. This made it difficult to find affordable home loans — and virtually eliminated any interest homeowners had in mortgage refinancing, at least for those who’d borrowed during the period in which rates were in the 3% to 4% range.
However, new inflation data from late 2024 finally showed inflation was cooling. For would-be homebuyers who’d struggled to find mortgage loans at rates below 7%, this news offered renewed hope that getting a lower-cost home loan could still be an option.
Would-be homeowners and those hoping to refinance their mortgage got their wish. Average rates dropped more than a point leading into the Fed’s September meeting in anticipation of expected rate cuts. And, the Fed delivered, dropping rates by 50 basis points. Sadly, though, this didn’t cause borrowing costs to decline in October. Rates actually bounced back instead.
While this frustrated potential buyers, some experts say you shouldn’t wait for mortgage rates to fall as a rate drop will increase demand and send prices surging. Still, some are waiting to see how rates will trend before they buy. So what’s the best move to make?
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How far will mortgage interest rates fall in November?
For those eager for predictions, here’s what experts think about the chances of declining mortgage rates in November.
Rates could be volatile
November may bring a turbulent mortgage market, so those who are ready to become homeowners should track rates closely and seize on any opportunities to lock in when a rate drop happens.
“Mortgage rates could be volatile in the first half of November as they digest the election and the subsequent Fed meeting,” says Emily Overton, capital markets analyst at Veterans United Home Loans. “This could leave homebuyers certain days to arbitrage better rates if they’re watching day over day.”
Buyers hoping to lock in should pursue getting a pre-approval so they’re ready to act quickly and should contact their lender as soon as rates drop. Rates can change daily and timing the market can be a challenge, but tracking rates can help you catch favorable shifts.
Depending on the lender and loan terms, once the rate is locked in, it will be guaranteed not to change for a set time, such as 30 to 45 days. This not only provides peace of mind about mortgage costs but also makes it possible to take advantage of temporary rate cuts if you have reason to suspect borrowing costs will climb again.
Find out the top mortgage rates you could qualify for here.
Rates will stay above 6.00%
Although there could be some movement in mortgage rates in November, experts say the chances of a big decline aren’t likely — at least not yet.
“Mortgage rates are not expected to fall below 6% in November,” says J.R. George, senior vice president of Trustco Bank.
And most other experts agree with this assessment, for multiple reasons.
“Mortgage rates tend to mirror trends seen in other longer-term rates like 10-year treasuries, which fluctuate not only based on the current policy rate, but expectations for the economy over a longer period,” says Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com. “I expect the benchmark rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage to remain in the low 6% range in November as we saw in September. While rates climbed in October on stronger economic data, I expect more moderate readings on the labor market and inflation that will help bring rates back down.”
Melissa Cohn, regional vice president at William Raveis Mortgage, also believes mortgage rates will stay stable based on economic trends.
“Mortgage rates have bounced higher since hitting their 2024 lows in September. If economic data continues to show that the economy is stronger than thought, then rates will continue to rise in November and not fall at all,” Cohn says.
Good economic news isn’t typically a bad thing, but it could be problematic for those hoping for a chance at an affordable home loan.
“Keep in mind, as a general rule, bad economic news makes mortgage rates go down. Good economic news makes them go up,” says Aaron Gordon, a branch manager and senior mortgage loan officer at Guild Mortgage.
“I don’t believe mortgage rates will truly fall again until 2025,” Gordon says. “There’s too much uncertainty with the election and too many indicators that the economy is doing well. I would plan on 30-year mortgage rates in the 6.375% to 6.875% range through the end of 2024.”
While this is an improvement compared with mortgage rates of 7% or higher during the pandemic, it’s still not what most buyers want to hear.
The bottom line
While it may be disappointing to discover that the Federal Reserve’s upcoming November meeting isn’t likely to send mortgage rates plummeting, there is some good news for would-be homebuyers and those looking to refinance.
J.R. George believes rates will dip lower near the end of the fourth quarter of 2024m while Gordon says the next big rate cut is coming in early 2025. However, as Cohn mentioned above, strong economic news could upend these predictions.
“Another stronger than expected jobs report or stickier than expected inflation data could keep rates closer to the mid-6% range,” Hale says.
Those waiting on the sidelines for lower rates should monitor economic conditions as well as the upcoming Fed meeting on November 6 and 7th. Those factors will determine if rates are likely to go down both in November and beyond.
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The discovery of a 4,000-year-old fortified town hidden in an oasis in modern-day Saudi Arabia reveals how life at the time was slowly changing from a nomadic to an urban existence, archaeologists said on Wednesday.
The remains of the town, dubbed al-Natah, were long concealed by the walled oasis of Khaybar, a green and fertile speck surrounded by desert in the northwest of the Arabian Peninsula.
Then an ancient 14.5 kilometer-long wall was discovered at the site, according to research led by French archaeologist Guillaume Charloux published earlier this year.
For a new study published in the journal PLOS One, a French-Saudi team of researchers have provided “proof that these ramparts are organized around a habitat,” Charloux told AFP.
The large town, which was home to up to 500 residents, was built around 2,400 BC during the early Bronze Age, the researchers said.
Charloux et al., 2024, PLOS One
It was abandoned around a thousand years later. “No one knows why,” Charloux said.
When al-Natah was built, cities were flourishing in the Levant region along the Mediterranean Sea from present-day Syria to Jordan.
Northwest Arabia at the time was thought to have been barren desert, crossed by pastoral nomads and dotted with burial sites.
That was until 15 years ago, when archaeologists discovered ramparts dating back to the Bronze Age in the oasis of Tayma, to Khaybar’s north.
This “first essential discovery” led scientists to look closer at these oases, Charloux said.
“Slow urbanism”
Black volcanic rocks called basalt concealed the walls of al-Natah so well that it “protected the site from illegal excavations,” Charloux said.
But observing the site from above revealed potential paths and the foundations of houses, suggesting where the archaeologists needed to dig.
They discovered foundations “strong enough to easily support at least one- or two-story” homes, Charloux said, emphasizing that there was much more work to be done to understand the site.
But their preliminary findings paint a picture of a 2.6-hectare town with around 50 houses perched on a hill, equipped with a wall of its own.
Tombs inside a necropolis there contained metal weapons like axes and daggers as well as stones such as agate, indicating a relatively advanced society for so long ago.
Pieces of pottery “suggest a relatively egalitarian society,” the study said. They are “very pretty but very simple ceramics,” added Charloux.
The size of the ramparts — which could reach around five meters (16 feet) high — suggests that al-Natah was the seat of some kind of powerful local authority.
These discoveries reveal a process of “slow urbanism” during the transition between nomadic and more settled village life, the study said.
For example, fortified oases could have been in contact with each other in an area still largely populated by pastoral nomadic groups. Such exchanges could have even laid the foundations for the “incense route” which saw spices, frankincense and myrrh traded from southern Arabia to the Mediterranean.
Al-Natah was still small compared to cities in Mesopotamia or Egypt during the period.
But in these vast expanses of desert, it appears there was “another path towards urbanization” than such city-states, one “more modest, much slower, and quite specific to the northwest of Arabia,” Charloux said.
