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Mortgage interest rate forecast for summer 2024: Everything experts predict
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Mortgage interest rates have increased so much over the last few years that it has both buyers and sellers worried. “The impact of the higher cost of homeownership has been a notable drop in home buyer demand,” says Dr. Selma Hepp, a chief economist at CoreLogic. “At the same time, higher mortgage rates have disincentivized some potential sellers to sell as they have been unwilling to give up their relatively lower rate and lower mortgage payment.”
While the demand for for-sale homes is still high, higher interest rates have slowed down the homebuying craze that occurred during the pandemic. After all, it’s not easy for potential sellers to list their homes for sale and buy something else if it means paying a higher interest rate than what they were before. And, that trend is having an impact on the market — and homebuyers.
“The combination of slower demand and low supply has reduced home sales activity to the lowest levels since the Great Financial Crisis,” Hepp says. “The typical mortgage payment has increased by over 60% since mortgage rates started increasing in mid-2022.”
But while high mortgage rates have been slowing things down, at least slightly, in recent months, what do experts think could happen this summer with mortgage rates — and, in return, the selling market? Here’s what you should know.
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Mortgage interest rate forecast for summer 2024: Everything experts predict
If you’re keeping an eye on this unusual mortgage rate environment, here’s what experts think could happen this summer.
Rock-bottom rates are a thing of the past
In 2021, we saw mortgage interest rates between 2% and 3% — some of the lowest rates we’ve ever had on record. Even now, mortgage rates hover around 7% for a 30-year conventional mortgage loan. While this isn’t as high as it was last October when rates climbed to almost 8%, rates are still two to three times what they were during 2020 to 2022.
Hepp doesn’t expect mortgage rates to drop that low again anytime soon.
“Three percent for a mortgage is a distant memory,” Hepp says. “It’s doubtful we will see rates that low, barring some major, adverse economic event, such as a recession, which is not expected in the near term.”
Tai Christensen, president of Arrive Home, agrees that 3% mortgage rates aren’t coming back.
“Mortgage rates could eventually drop back down to 3%,” Christensen says. “However, I doubt it will be in our lifetime, and if so, it will not be in the foreseeable future.”
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Summer sizzles or summer fizzles
While spring and summer months tend to be hot for homebuying, higher interest rates could be a hindrance this summer.
“Historically, the spring and summer seasons are the most popular times to purchase homes due to favorable weather conditions and families being settled in their new property prior to the school year starting in the fall,” Christensen says. “However, since these seasons are most popular, buyers may experience increased competition and potentially higher prices.”
The average sale prices of homes sold for the first quarter of 2024 was $513,100, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. And, between the higher mortgage interest rates and higher home prices, there could be less incentive for people to buy.
“High mortgage rates have cooled the housing market,” Hepp says. “While it is not considered hot, there continue to be more buyers than the number of existing homes available for sale, which drives home prices higher.”
Should you buy a home now or wait?
With rates more than double what they were just a couple of years ago, many would-be homebuyers are waiting to take out mortgages right now. But that doesn’t mean you should wait, especially if you’re prepared with the funds, credit score and ideal location for buying a home.
“Mortgage rates are expected to start moving lower by the end of this year,” Hepp says. “However, this is largely dependent on overall inflation and whether the Fed gains confidence in the [persistence] of disinflation. In that case, the Fed would lower the federal funds rate, which would help bring mortgage rates lower as well.”
Buying now might be the right choice if:
- You have a large chunk in a down payment. If it’s 20% or more, you can avoid paying private mortgage insurance.
- You have excellent credit and have shopped around with lenders to get the lowest interest rate available.
- You plan on staying in your home for a while.
- You’re willing to consider a 15-year mortgage, which tends to have lower interest rates than 30-year loans.
- You plan on refinancing your home when rates drop to take advantage of the dip.
The bottom line
Ultimately, buying now isn’t required and for some potential buyers, now isn’t the right time. If you can hold off for a while, you may be able to get a lower mortgage rate and have less competition — but it all depends on what happens with the economic conditions in the future.
“Purchasing during less popular times, like fall or winter, could increase a buyer’s ability to negotiate more favorable terms,” Christensen says.
If you choose to buy now, though, there may be benefits to doing so. And, you aren’t stuck with today’s high mortgage rates forever. You have the option to refinance in the future if rates decline, so if you find the perfect home and are able to make your move now, it may be worth snagging your dream home instead of missing out.
Washington — Two weeks after setting a nationwide deadline for removal of lead pipes, the Biden administration is imposing strict new limits on dust from lead-based paint in older homes and child-care facilities.
A final rule announced Thursday by the Environmental Protection Agency sets limits on lead dust on floors and window sills in pre-1978 residences and child-care facilities to levels so low they can’t be detected.
Paint that contains lead was banned in 1978, but more than 30 million American homes are believed to still contain it, including nearly 4 million homes where children under the age of 6 live. Lead paint can chip off when it deteriorates or is disturbed, especially during home remodeling or renovation.
“There is no safe level of lead,” said Michal Freedhoff, EPA’s assistant administrator for chemical safety and pollution prevention. The new rule will bring the United States “closer to eradicating lead-based paint hazards from homes and child care facilities once and for all,” she said.
The EPA estimates the new rule will reduce the lead exposures of up to 1.2 million people per year, including 178,000 to 326,000 children under age 6.
Lead is a neurotoxin that can irreversibly harm brain development in children, lower IQ, cause behavioral problems and lead to lifelong health effects. It also affects other organs, including the liver and kidneys.
The new rule, which takes effect early next year, targets levels of lead dust generated by paint. Currently, 10 micrograms per square foot is considered hazardous on floors, and a concentration 10 times that high is considered hazardous on window sills. The new rule brings both of those levels down to no detectable lead.
The proposed rule also would reduce what level is allowed when a lead-abatement contractor finishes work on a property where lead has been identified as a problem. These levels would be 5 micrograms per square foot on the floor and 40 micrograms per square foot for sills.
Individuals and firms that perform abatement work must be certified and follow specific work practices. Testing is required afterward to ensure dust-lead levels are below the new standards.
Environmental justice and public health experts called the EPA rule long overdue, noting that lead poisoning disproportionately affects low-income communities and communities of color.
“We can all breathe a little easier now that the EPA has significantly lowered its dust lead standard to protect children,” said Peggy Shepard, co-founder and executive director of WE ACT for Environmental Justice, a New York-based advocacy group.
Shepard, who serves on the White House Environmental Justice Advisory Council, said public health experts have long understood there is no safe level of lead in a child’s blood, yet New York state leads the nation in cases of children with elevated blood levels. Black children in Harlem living below the poverty line are twice as likely to suffer from lead poisoning as poor white children, she said.
The U.S. government has gradually been reducing the standard for what counts as poisonous levels of lead in children’s blood, with the most recent change occurring in 2021. But the EPA rule marks an effort to take more proactive action.
“When you are relying on the blood lead level in children to indicate whether there is lead in the environment, we are basically using the children as canaries in the mine,” said Dr. Philip Landrigan, a Boston College biology professor who directs the school’s Program for Global Public Health and the Common Good.
The National Child Care Association said when the lead rule was proposed last year that it could hurt many financially struggling child-care centers – especially those in low-income neighborhoods, where the facilities tend to be older. Without appropriate federal funding, the rule could push small, local child-care centers to close, the group said.
Earlier this month, the federal Department of Housing and Urban Development announced $420 million in grants to remove lead hazards from homes, including HUD-assisted homes. Additional HUD grants will continue to be available to help with lead paint removal, the White House said.
An Indiana man has been sentenced to life in prison for the 1975 killing of a 17-year-old girl who was found dead in a river after she failed to return home from her job at a church camp.
A Noble County judge sentenced Fred Bandy Jr., 69, on Tuesday to a life term with the possibility of parole in Laurel Jean Mitchell’s August 1975 death. The Goshen man was convicted of first-degree murder this month following a bench trial.
A message was left seeking comment from Bandy’s attorney Wednesday.
He was charged along with John Wayne Lehman, 69, of Auburn, Indiana, last year in Mitchell’s killing. Lehman was sentenced to eight years in prison this month after pleading guilty to conspiracy to commit murder.
Mitchell was found drowned in the Elkhart River on Aug. 7, 1975, the morning after she failed to return home in North Webster, about 140 miles northeast of Indianapolis.
WTTV
Although Mitchell’s cause of death was ruled as drowning, police say the autopsy report suggested that she “had fought for her life,” so police initiated a murder investigation.
Prosecutors charged Bandy and Lehman in Mitchell’s killing in February 2023, nearly a half-century later.
Lehman said in an August deposition that Bandy raped Mitchell and drowned her. Lehman denied participating in the rape or the murder and said his fear of Bandy kept him from trying to stop the crimes, The News-Sun of Kendallville reported.
According to a probable cause affidavit, investigators said they believed Bandy and Lehman “forcibly, deliberately drowned” Mitchell after taking her to the river in Bandy’s car.
A DNA profile was obtained in recent years through testing on Mitchell’s clothing, which was saved along with other evidence collected in 1975. According to the affidavit, Bandy voluntarily provided a DNA sample in December 2022 to state police, and testing determined he was 13 billion times “more likely to be the contributor of the DNA in Laurel J. Mitchell’s clothing than any other unknown person.”
The DNA testing came after three people who were teens at the time of Mitchell’s killing tied Bandy and Lehman to the crime based on incriminating comments they had made about her death, the affidavit states.
CBS affiliate WTTV reported that because Bandy had to be sentenced by 1975 standards, the potential outcomes were either life with the possibility of parole or the death sentence, prosecutors said. The state’s death penalty as of 1975 was later declared unconstitutional, ruling out that option.
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New Zealand airport with 3-minute cap on farewell hugs “surprised how much global interest” there’s been
Wellington — A New Zealand airport has imposed a three-minute limit on farewell hugs, sparking a worldwide debate over how long to cling on for a cuddle. Bosses at the international airport in the southern city of Dunedin say they were surprised by the viral response to their new rule in the car drop-off zone.
“To keep things moving smoothly, we’ve installed new signage, including the ‘Max hug time 3 minutes’ sign,” said airport chief executive Daniel De Bono. “It’s our way of being a little quirky and reminding people that the drop-off zone is for quick farewells.”
“And don’t worry,” added De Bono, “just a 20-second hug is enough to release oxytocin and serotonin, the happy hormones that boost well-being, so three minutes is plenty of time to say goodbye and get your dose of happiness.”
Sarah Soper/AP
People who want a longer hug can use the parking lot, where the first 15 minutes are free, he added.
The hug restriction made headlines worldwide — and prompted a divided online response.
“I’m just glad there’s no minimum hug time. A ‘see ya soon’ suffices,” one woman commented on the airport’s Facebook page.
“Hug Police!? This is just weird! Hugs are proven to have many benefits not to mention mental health,” said another poster.
The small airport, which was used by fewer than 1 million passengers last year, said it had imposed the hug time limit in September, with little initial reaction.
“We have just been surprised how much global interest there has been,” said the airport’s marketing and communications executive, Sarah Soper.
