California voters will soon decide on a high-profile ballot measure that would increase penalties for certain drug and theft crimes. 

Last week, CBS News California took a closer look at the drug component of Proposition 36 — also known as The Homeless, Drug Addiction and Theft Reduction Act. 

Here, we examine whether retail theft is really on the rise in California and whether the tough-on-crime Proposition 36 would actually help. 

Are California retail crime rates up? Yes and no. 

We analyzed data from the California Department of Justice (DOJ), which shows that statewide retail crime — which includes shoplifting, commercial robberies and burglaries, and organized retail theft — reached its highest levels in two decades in 2023, with about 213,000 reported incidents. 

Shoplifting and commercial robbery in 2023 were both at their highest levels since 1997 — however, there were nearly seven times the number of shoplifting incidents than there were robberies. In 2023, the number of reported non-residential burglaries was slightly higher than in pre-pandemic years but lower than levels seen during the pandemic. 

Statewide, reported shoplifting crimes increased by about 2% from the five years before another controversial ballot measure was passed by California voters to the five years after. Passed in 2014, Proposition 47 made hard drug possession and theft under $950 misdemeanors instead of felonies. 

In 2015, immediately after Proposition 47 was passed, there was a 12% increase in statewide shoplifting, but those numbers ended up decreasing in the years after.

In 2023, reported shoplifting statewide rose 26% from 2019 levels. However, last year’s numbers for both shoplifting and overall retail crime were far lower than those of the 1980s and 1990s, and the trends vary from county to county. 

Compared to pre-pandemic (2015-2019) averages, about half of California counties saw an increase in shoplifting in 2023, while the other half saw a decrease, according to state crime data. 

There were significant jumps in many larger, more populated counties, but some large counties saw decreases. 

According to a Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) study of data from the DOJ, a statewide increase in overall retail theft between 2019-2023 was mostly driven by “11 of the state’s 15 most populous counties but generally decreased in smaller counties.” 

For instance, the PPIC study shows that rises in retail crime in Sacramento County, Alameda County, San Mateo County and Los Angeles County during those five years accounted for more than 90% of the statewide increase over that time. 

Property crime in California, which includes all robberies, burglaries, and thefts regardless of location jumped above the national average for the first time in 2015 and saw a gradual decrease afterward, state and federal crime data show. 

However, the statewide property crime rate has remained above the national average ever since that jump and has separated from the national average more after the pandemic when many countries relaxed criminal justice policies even more. 

“We had individuals in our city who were arrested or cited over 15, 20, 25 times in a period of 24 months,” San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan said. “That culture of a lack of accountability really started to take root.” 

Why is retail crime up? That depends on who you ask.

Mahan and Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho are among a growing number of high-profile elected Democrats who support Proposition 36. 

“I think it cuts to the core of the cycle of serious addiction and retail theft and unsheltered homelessness,” Mahan said.

Ho and Mahan took us to a homeless encampment along the Guadalupe River in downtown San Jose, across from a Target shopping center. They described the area as a microcosm of the need for voters to pass the high-profile ballot measure. That is where we met a homeless man named Richard. 

“Some people that have a drug problem, they choose to go steal something,” he said. 

Richard said it’s not uncommon for some of his unhoused neighbors to steal from nearby stores. Whether they get cited for shoplifting, drug use, or unauthorized camping, he said repeat misdemeanor tickets are not a deterrent. 

“I’m going to keep getting tickets and keep getting tickets,” he said. 

Supporters of Proposition 36 say the ballot measure is needed to fix the unintended consequences of Proposition 47. 

“We took away tools to intervene in cycles of addiction that have an interplay with retail theft, with unsheltered homelessness,” Mahan said. 

Ho noted that misdemeanor petty theft is a cite-and-release offense, which means even repeat offenders generally walk away with a notice to appear in court. 

“We have in Sacramento over 30,000 bench warrants for people that never even show up,” Ho said, echoing what Sacramento County Sheriff Jim Cooper said at a Senate Standing Committee on Public Safety hearing in September. 

While the first two offenses under Proposition 36 would remain misdemeanors, the ballot measure would make a third conviction a felony. 

The No on Proposition 36 campaign points to a decrease in theft clearance rates — arrests for reported crimes — as a key factor in the rise of the statewide retail crime rate. 

Simply put, critics like Cristine Soto DeBerry — who wrote the opposition argument to Proposition 36 — argue that theft is up because “no one is being arrested.” 

Our CBS News California analysis of state crime data found that clearance rates dropped after Proposition 47 passed. 

The statewide clearance rate for thefts was about 8% in 2023, according to DOJ data. Clearance rates for theft peaked at more than 20% in 1990 and declined steadily until about 2000, where rates hovered around 14-16% until 2014, when Proposition 47 was passed. 

Theft clearance rates then dropped after 2014 and then dropped again to an all-time low of 6% during the pandemic. They’ve been slightly increasing since. 

However, just like the retail crime, clearance rates vary by county, and more counties saw a drop after the COVID-19 pandemic than after the passing of Proposition 47.

Soto DeBerry pointed to law enforcement claims that they often can’t respond to reports of theft due to understaffing. She argues that Proposition 36 won’t change that. 

“What deters people from committing crime is the belief that they will get caught. That’s it,” Soto DeBerry said. 

Supporters of Proposition 36 say that repeat offenders will face a so-called “wobbler,” which can be charged as either a misdemeanor or a felony. They argue that under Proposition 36, repeat offenders would be more likely to be held in jail until they see a judge, which would incentivize officers to make an arrest and create a greater deterrent for serial thieves. 

Proposition 47 or the COVID-19 pandemic?

The struggle to pinpoint the cause of the recent increase in retail crime isn’t only figuring out if it was due to lesser consequences or a lower chance of getting caught. There’s also the challenge of pinpointing changes during different time frames.  

For example, a PPIC study examining crime after Prop 47 and the pandemic found evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic might have had a stronger impact on retail crime than Proposition 47 and that clearance rates are more closely tied to retail crime increases than jail or prison. 

The study found that while jail and prison populations have dropped by a total of 30%, “the impact on crime has been modest and limited.” 

Lower incarceration as a result of Proposition 47 likely only contributed to a roughly 4% rise in auto thefts and car break-ins (neither of which are retail crimes). Meanwhile, Proposition 47 clearance rates led to a 3% rise in burglaries, a 2% rise in auto thefts and a 1% rise in thefts. 

However, the study found that when jail populations and burglary clearance rates fell during the pandemic, “commercial burglaries rose by a combined 5.3%, representing roughly one-third of the increase observed over that time. Some weak evidence also points to a 2021 rise in commercial burglaries tied to low clearance rates.” 

The study did not include the increase in 2023 and it acknowledged that retail crime data is messy and not always complete. Some stores may be reporting fewer thefts to law enforcement, while others may be reporting more. 

“Given the lack of data that accurately, completely, consistently, and credibly captures retail theft incidents, it is impossible to reliably assess the role of Prop 47 on retail theft,” the study read. 

One grocery store worker we spoke with, who we’ll call Laura, is just one of many on the front lines of what has become a constant and well-publicized retail theft battle in the nation’s most populous state.

We agreed to conceal Laura’s true identity to protect her job. She said felt compelled to speak out on behalf of her coworkers, showing us videos of repeated thefts in her store. 

“They know if the police even come, they’re just taken off the property, they turn right back around and come back,” she said of offenders. 

Laura added that viral retail theft videos like these don’t show the reality of retail theft. 

Many stores forbid employees from stopping shoplifters and, in some cases, fire employees who do, like this Safeway employee in the San Francisco Bay Area. 

“Everybody knows that we can’t touch them,” Laura said. 

Laura added that workers can’t report every theft, and when they do call the cops, thieves are often long gone before law enforcement arrives. 

“It’s not just homeless and the drug addicts,” she said. “It is people coming in Teslas, walking out with carts full of groceries.” 

Even California Gov. Gavin Newsom has witnessed retail theft. He described to a group of California mayors on a Zoom call how a Target clerk blamed him for the rash of retail theft after the governor witnessed the incident. 

The governor was a proponent of Proposition 47 and is now against Proposition 36. 

In August, Newsom signed a bill package into law targeting organized retail theft and property crimes. This package featured harsher punishments targeting repeat offenders. In September, Newsom signed another bill specifically targeting smash-and-grab robberies, mandating harsher sentences for incidents that result in major theft and damages.

Laura hopes that stiffer penalties under the governor’s bill package and Proposition 36 will incentivize officers to make more arrests and deter would-be thieves. She said that while it may not put an end to all retail theft, “we have got to do something.”

Julie Watts

Julie Watts is a national-award-winning investigative correspondent for CBS News, covering California. Her investigations, Capitol accountability reports, and solutions-oriented journalism air weekly on CBS stations across California.