With just a week to go, it’s a tied race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in Pennsylvania — the biggest electoral vote prize of the battleground states in the 2024 election. 

Trump is helped by voters’ negative perceptions of today’s economy and by the fact that more voters think they would be better off financially with him in the White House than Harris. When they look back, far more Pennsylvania voters say things were going well in the U.S. during Trump’s presidency than say that today. 

Harris leads Trump among voters who say the state of democracy and abortion are major factors, and she has an edge on some personal qualities. More think she has the cognitive health to serve as president than think Trump does, and voters are more apt to see Harris’ positions as reasonable and to see Trump’s as extreme.  

And while Harris has not convinced most Pennsylvania voters that she would strengthen U.S. democracy (Trump hasn’t either), slightly more think Trump will weaken it. 

There’s been little movement in the race here since September. 

Issues

Looking back, more Pennsylvania voters say things were going well in the country when Trump was president and those who feel that way are backing him in big numbers.  Trump maintains his advantage on who would make people better off financially and leads Harris big among those who cite the U.S.-Mexico border as a major factor in their vote. 

The state of democracy is a major factor for Pennsylvania voters too, along with other issues, but neither Harris nor Trump have a clear lead on who would strengthen U.S. democracy, should they become president. Slightly more voters think Trump will weaken it than say that about Harris, and that is particularly so among those who call democracy a major factor in their vote. 

Personal qualities

But Trump’s positions, more than Harris’, are seen as extreme by more Pennsylvania voters, and those who hold that view are overwhelmingly backing Harris. 

More broadly, more voters like the way Harris handles herself personally than the way Trump does. (Although neither candidate is liked personally by a majority of voters).

And this does help Harris to a degree. Nearly all the voters who like Harris are voting for her. 

For Trump, though, there are a quarter of voters who dislike the way he handles himself personally but are voting for him anyway, so not liking the way Trump behaves is not a disqualifier for many. Only 5% of voters who dislike Harris are backing her. 

Voter groups

In this neck-and-neck race, Harris is performing well with many of the same groups President Biden excelled with in 2020, and Trump is retaining much of the support of those key groups who backed him. 

White voters without a college (more than 4 in 10 voters here ) continue to be some of Trump’s strongest backers. Most think they will be better off financially with his policies than with Harris’ and are backing him by a wide margin. 

Harris leads Trump among White voters with a college degree, who comprise just over a third of the electorate, a group that has been trending more Democratic in recent elections. 

This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a statewide representative sample of 1,273 registered voters in Pennsylvania  interviewed between October 22-28, 2024. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education and geographic region, based on U.S. Census data and voter files, as well as to past vote. The margin of error for registered voters is ±3.6 points.

Toplines

Washington — The Supreme Court on Tuesday rejected two separate bids by Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., to have his name removed from the presidential ballots in Michigan and Wisconsin.

In two brief orders, the justices denied the requests from Kennedy to order election officials in Michigan and Wisconsin to take his name off their ballots, even as millions of voters in the two battleground states have already voted early either in-person or by mail. Justice Neil Gorsuch dissented from the court’s denial in the Michigan case.

Kennedy suspended his longshot presidential campaign in August and had warned that listing his name on the ballot risked misrepresenting to voters his willingness to serve if elected to the White House. After ending his candidacy, Kennedy threw his support behind former President Donald Trump and began working to have his name taken off the ballots in 10 states.

In New York, though, Kennedy asked the high court to reinstate him to its general election ballot, which the Supreme Court declined to do last month.

In the Wisconsin case, Kennedy asked the Supreme Court to remove him from the ballot by covering his name with stickers after the Wisconsin Elections Commission rejected his request to remove his name. State officials had warned this would be a “herculean task” for county clerks and staff, as it would require stickers to be placed on 4 million paper ballots.

“In Wisconsin, he wants everyone who will listen to vote for Trump,” Kennedy’s lawyers said in the request for emergency relief. “To aid that message, he sought to have his name removed from the ballot well before the Wisconsin Elections Commission voted to put him on the ballot and before the major parties even had to submit a candidate.” 

Kennedy said he asked to withdraw his candidacy to reinforce the message that he is suspending his campaign and wants Wisconsin voters to cast their ballots for Trump.

Wisconsin law prohibits the removal of Kennedy’s name from the ballot, saying that “any person who files nomination papers and qualifies to appear on the ballot may not decline nomination.” The only exception is a candidate’s death, when state law allows for stickers to be placed over the candidate’s name.

But Kennedy argued that forcing his name to be listed on the ballot violates the First Amendment by compelling his speech.

“This case involves communication about the presidential election from a former candidate who is being forced on the ballot in violation of his First Amendment rights and whose message of support for former President Trump is being compromised,” his lawyers wrote in their filing to the Supreme Court.

Wisconsin officials, however, said Kennedy’s request would require election officials one week before Election Day to “handcraft and apply millions of stickers” to ballots in order to cover his name.

“The absurdity of this proposal is evident on its face,” they told the Supreme Court in a filing.

Kennedy followed his request to be removed from Wisconsin’s ballot with a similar effort to have his name kept off of Michigan’s.

As in the Wisconsin case, Kennedy told the Supreme Court in a filing that Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson violated his First Amendment rights when she recertified the ballot to list Kennedy as a presidential candidate.

“The secretary, by listing Mr. Kennedy on the ballot, is misrepresenting to voters that Mr. Kennedy is qualified and willing to serve the public if elected,” his lawyers wrote. “Such a representation is not only incorrect, but it is also prejudicial to voters who reasonably expect that the ballot contain accurate information.”

But Michigan officials said the state’s election is already underway, and it would not be possible for Michigan’s 83 counties to reprint and distribute new ballots, which can take up to two weeks to complete. 

“Kennedy’s last-minute maneuver would not merely halt and reverse the ballot-printing process — it would require that process to be started anew a week before Election Day,” they wrote in a filing with the Supreme Court. “But the Michigan Election Law makes no exception for a candidate’s political maneuvers, nor does this court.”

Kennedy sued state officials after Benson refused to remove his name from the list of candidates to be included on the November ballot. A state trial court ruled Michigan law didn’t allow for Kennedy, as a minor party candidate, to withdraw from the ballot, but an appeals court disagreed and ordered his name to be kept off the ballot.

The Michigan Supreme Court then ruled in September that Kennedy couldn’t pull out of the general election in the state.

Benson recertified Kennedy as a presidential candidate on the Michigan ballot.

After the state court proceedings, Kennedy filed a federal lawsuit that alleged his constitutional rights had been violated. But the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 6th Circuit ultimately ruled for Benson, finding that by the time the lower court ruled, at least 45 of Michigan’s counties had started printing ballots.

“Changing the ballot at this late a date would be even more disruptive. The ballots are now printed,” the panel of three 6th Circuit judges found. The court noted that absentee voting began in the state on Sept. 26 and said Kennedy “does not explain how to unring the bell at this juncture without great harm to voting rights and the public’s interest in fair and efficient election administration.”

Kennedy’s efforts to have his name taken off the ballots in the two battleground states are contrary to his argument in New York, where he argued his supporters there had a constitutional right to have his name on the ballot and vote for him “whether he is campaigning for their vote or not.” 

Kennedy was disqualified in the state over his nominating petition listing a friend’s address in the state as his permanent place of residence. The Supreme Court denied his bid to be reinstated on New York’s ballot in September. 

Kennedy suspended his campaign in August and endorsed Trump. After months of fighting to get on the ballot in every state and Washington, D.C., Kennedy said he would seek to have his name removed from the ballots in 10 states he considered competitive because it could be detrimental to Trump’s chances of winning the election against Vice President Kamala Harris. 

He encouraged his supporters to vote for him in states where it did not risk harming Trump, but weeks later also reversed that advice and said all of his supporters should vote for the Republican nominee.