Flu activity remains elevated in most of the country, but the latest data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows “a single week of decrease” for the first time in months. Despite the dip, experts say not to let your guard down just yet.

After several weeks of increases, the agency’s weekly influenza report Friday showed some key indicators are down, but health officials say an “upsurge” is expected. 

“Folks try not to seek care during the holiday season, so we see these divots in the surveillance graphs each year, but it is very probable that during the next weeks, we’ll see an upsurge of cases,” said Dr. Eduardo Azziz-Baumgartner of the CDC’s Influenza Division.  

Dr. Céline Gounder, a CBS News medical contributor and editor-at-large for public health at KFF Health News, says it’s pretty typical to see two dips in flu numbers — one that comes after the Thanksgiving holiday and another after Christmas and New Years. 

“Just because we’ve seen cases go down a little bit in the last week doesn’t mean we don’t still have another bump in cases yet to come,” she says. “Later in January, February is very often the peak of the influenza season, so just because we’ve see a recent drop in flu cases doesn’t mean that there aren’t more to come. In fact, I think we’re probably in a lull between increases resulting from Thanksgiving, and then afterwards Christmas and New Years.”

So far this season, the CDC says the flu has caused at least 14 million illnesses 150,000 hospitalizations, and 9,400 deaths. An additional 13 pediatric deaths were reported this week, bringing the total number to 40 this season.

The increase in deaths among kids from flu is concerning, Gounder says, adding many people don’t realize that, after the elderly, children are the group at highest risk for complications and even death from respiratory illnesses.

“Unfortunately, I think a lot of people coming out of the COVID pandemic are fatigued and tired of talking about vaccinations, getting vaccinated, but kids under 5 are very much at risk for hospitalization and even death from respiratory illnesses, including influenza COVID and RSV, and this is because they have less mature immune systems and smaller airways,” she said. 

So while death from respiratory illnesses is relatively rare among young kids, Gounder says, “it’s really important to keep up to date with vaccinations in those youngest,” as it can “dramatically reduce the risk of these terrible consequences.”

The CDC’s Azziz-Baumgartner noted that the flu vaccine is beneficial for anyone looking for protection. 

“Anyone who hasn’t gotten vaccinated against influenza should go get their vaccines so that they’re protected,” he said.