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Who is favored to win the 2024 Super Bowl, and which team is the underdog?
Despite their status as defending champions, the Kansas City Chiefs are slight underdogs when they face the San Francisco 49ers in the 2024 Super Bowl in Las Vegas Sunday.
The Niners first opened as 1.5-point favorites, according to most sportsbooks. The line has since shifted even more in their favor, with San Francisco settling in as consensus 2-point favorites by Saturday afternoon.
Oddsmakers have the consensus over/under at 47.5 points. However, according to Pro Football Reference, the Chiefs had the No. 2 ranked defense in the NFL this season, with the Niners right behind them at No. 3, so a low-scoring affair could be in order.
Patrick Mahomes comfortable as the underdog
Playing as an underdog appears to suit Chiefs star quarterback Patrick Mahomes just fine. This last month saw the Chiefs face arguably their toughest challenge yet in the Mahomes era, as the two-time MVP remarkably found himself playing road playoff games for the first time ever in his NFL career.
As road underdogs, the Chiefs first edged the Buffalo Bills in frigid conditions in the divisional round, and then again when they bested the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC title game, with Mahomes throwing two touchdowns to tight end Travis Kelce.
In his career, Mahomes has a stellar 10-1-1 record against the spread as an underdog, according to ESPN.
San Francisco 49ers look to silence doubters
The Niners, however, arrive at Super Bowl LVIII on much shakier ground. Despite earning a No. 1 seed and home field advantage, they struggled mightily against seemingly inferior NFC competition.
They entered their divisional matchup with the seven-seeded Green Bay Packers as 10.5-point favorites. But the Packers took a 21-14 lead into the fourth quarter, and looked poised to pull the upset, before the Niners rattled off 10 unanswered points to clinch a 24-21 comeback win thanks to a Christian McCaffrey touchdown with just over a minute to go.
The narrative going into the NFC title game followed a similar script, with the Niners as 7.5-point favorites over the Detroit Lions. But the Lions dominated early, taking a 24-7 lead into halftime before they collapsed and the Niners rallied with 28 unanswered points to earn a 34-31 win.
If Mahomes embodies experience, San Francisco represents uncertainty. When the Chiefs defeated the Niners 31-20 in Super Bowl LIV four years ago, the Niners were led by quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. He is gone, replaced by Brock Purdy — “Mr. Irrelevant,” the last pick of the 2022 draft. Purdy has had an up-and-down playoffs, throwing just two touchdowns against one interception.
Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan may have the most to prove Sunday. Since taking the reins in San Francisco, he is 0-3 against Chiefs head coach Andy Reid, with the latest loss coming in a 44-23 drubbing by the Chiefs in 2022.
Reid and the Chiefs are seeking their third Super Bowl in just five years and their fourth as a franchise. San Francisco is looking to win its first Super Bowl since 1995 and its sixth overall.
How accurate have Super Bowl predictions been in the past?
In Vegas, the moniker is the house always wins, and that also applies to the Super Bowl. According to the betting data site Covers, since 1991, Nevada sportsbooks have only lost money on the Super Bowl twice. The first instance occurred in 1995, when the Niners crushed the then-San Diego Chargers 49-26. The second famously occurred in 2008, when Eli Manning’s New York Giants upset Tom Brady’s heavily-favored New England Patriots, thwarting their efforts to complete a perfect 19-0 season.
Every year, EA Sports runs a simulation of the Super Bowl on its popular Madden video game. In last year’s simulation, the Philadelphia Eagles defeated the Chiefs 31-17, but that was far off the actual result, in which the Chiefs won a 38-35 nailbiter.
According to Sports Illustrated, since 2004, the EA Sports Madden Super Bowl simulation has accurately predicted the winner 55% of the time. In Super Bowl XLIX in 2015, the simulation was perfect, not only predicting that the Patriots would defeat the Seattle Seahawks, but also getting the score exactly right, 28-24.
In the EA Sports Madden simulation for Sunday’s game, the Chiefs defeated the Niners 30-28.
Super Bowl LVIII will air on CBS and Nickelodeon and stream on Paramount+ on Feb. 11 from Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas. Kickoff is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. ET.
SPRINGFIELD, Ill. — The U.S. Justice Department is demanding records related to the July shooting death of Sonya Massey — an Illinois woman who was killed in her home by a sheriff’s deputy — as it investigates how local authorities treat Black residents and people with behavioral disabilities.
The government made a list of demands in dozens of categories in a letter to the Sangamon County Sheriff’s Office, dated Thursday.
“The Sheriff’s Office, along with involved county agencies, has engaged in discussions and pledged full cooperation with the Department of Justice in its review,” Sangamon County Sheriff Paula Crouch said Friday.
Sonya Massey, a 36-year-old Black woman, was killed July 6 when deputies responded to a call about a possible prowler at her home in Springfield, Illinois. She was shot three times during a confrontation with an officer.
The alleged shooter, Sean Grayson, who is White, was fired. He is charged with murder and other crimes and has pleaded not guilty.
“The Justice Department, among other requests, wants to know if the sheriff’s office has strategies for responding to people in “behavioral health crises,” the government’s letter read. “…The incident raises serious concerns about…interactions with Black people and people with behavioral health disabilities.”
Andy Van Meter, chairman of the Sangamon County Board, said the Justice Department’s review is an important step in strengthening the public’s trust in the sheriff’s office.
At the time of the fatal shooting, the Sangamon County Sheriff’s Office was led by then-Sheriff Jack Campbell, who retired in August and was replaced by Crouch.
Deputy Sean Grayson’s history of misconduct
Grayson has worked for six different law enforcement agencies in Illinois since 2020, CBS News learned. He was also discharged from the Army in February 2016 after serving for about 19 months. He was hired by the Sangamon County Sheriff’s Office in May 2023.
In an interview with CBS News in early August, Campbell said that Grayson “had all the training he needed. He just didn’t use it.”
In a recording released by the Logan County Sheriff’s Office, where Grayson worked from May 2022 to April 2023, a supervising officer is heard warning Grayson for what the senior officer said was his lack of integrity, for lying in his reports, and for what he called “official misconduct.”
Girard Police Chief Wayman Meredith recalled an alleged incident in 2023 when he said an enraged Grayson was pressuring him to call child protective services on a woman outside of Grayson’s mother’s home. He said Grayson was “acting like a bully.”
The recording and Meredith’s description of Grayson’s conduct showed how he quickly became angry and, according to documents, willing to abuse his power as an officer.
Sangamon County Sheriff’s Office history of accusations
According to a review of court records in 2007, Massey’s killing was the only criminal case in recent history against a Sangamon County Sheriff’s Office deputy for actions on duty. Local officials characterized her shooting as an aberration.
However, CBS News obtained thousands of pages of law enforcement files, medical and court records, as well as photo and video evidence that indicated the office had a history of misconduct allegations and accountability failures before Grayson. The records challenged the claim that Massey’s death was, as said by the then-sheriff, an isolated incident by one “rogue individual.”
Local families were confident that Massey’s death was the latest in a pattern of brazen abuse that has gone unchecked for years.
Attorneys for Massey’s family recommended an updated SAFE-T Act that would expand an existing database used to track officer misconduct to include infractions like DUIs and speeding during police chases.
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