CBS News
Could the Arctic be ice-free within a decade? What the latest science says
The Arctic could be “ice-free” in just a few years, scientists have found. Here’s what that means.
The region, which sits at the northernmost point of the globe, is a unique ecosystem characterized by areas of permanent snow and ice. But, if the Earth continues to face damaging levels of emissions, the Arctic could see “summer days with practically no sea ice as early as the next couple of years,” a new peer-reviewed study out of the University of Colorado Boulder revealed.
“The first ice-free day in the Arctic could occur over 10 years earlier than previous projections,” the study, that was published Tuesday, added.
Sebnem Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
What is an ice-free day?
To scientists, an ice-free day does not mean there is absolutely no ice in the water. Instead, the term is measured by the quantity of ice in the water below a certain threshold.
According to researchers, the ocean is ice-free when it has less than 1 million square kilometers, or 386,000 square miles, of ice. That number represents less than 20% of the region’s minimum ice cover in the 1980s.
When will the Arctic be ice-free?
“The first ice-free day in the Arctic could occur over 10 years earlier than previous projections,” the study found.
Researchers predict that the first ice-free day will take place on a late August or early September day between the 2020s and 2030s under all emissions scenarios.
By the middle of this century, scientists say it’s likely the Arctic will have an ocean without floating ice for a whole month, during a September — when the region experiences its lowest amount of ice coverage.
By the end of the century, the ice-free season could span several months in a year, even in winter months if high emissions become the norm.
What is causing sea ice loss?
Greenhouse gasses, according to study researcher Alexandra Jahn, associate professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at CU Boulder.
When snow and ice cover decrease, the heat absorbed from the sun by the ocean increases. As a result, ice melt and warming in the Arctic gets worse.
What happens if the Arctic loses its ice?
The loss of sea ice can disrupt the Arctic ecosystem in a number of ways, the study outlines.
Arctic animals, like polar bears and seals, could face challenges as they rely on ice for their survival. Additionally, non-native fish of invasive species may migrate to the warmer waters, having an impact on Arctic sea life.
The warming of water could also pose a threat to human communities living near the coastal region — as the ice melts and ocean waves grow larger, the coast could see dangerous erosion.
Can the loss of sea ice be prevented?
Scientists do say there is hope for preserving the Arctic for as long as possible.
“Even if ice-free conditions are unavoidable, we still need to keep our emissions as low as possible to avoid prolonged ice-free conditions,” Jahn said.
If things continue as is, with intermediate emissions, the Arctic may only become ice-free for a few months, from August to October, researchers found. But, if things shift to the highest emissions scenario, the Arctic could be ice-free for up to nine months late this century.
“This would transform the Arctic into a completely different environment,” Jahn said, “From a white summer Arctic to a blue Arctic.”
The study also notes that “the Arctic is resilient and can return quickly if the atmosphere cools down.”
On a rainy day in Paris, Pharrell Williams was at the headquarters of Louis Vuitton living the dream, at an office he prefers to call “a dream space.”
Last February, Williams was appointed the Men’s Creative Director. He oversees a staff of 200, and has already launched four new collections. His most recent, at UNESCO, paid tribute to the variety of the human race.
Giovanni Giannoni/WWD via Getty Images
Asked what is most satisfying watching his designs come down the runway, Williams said, “You’re gonna hate this answer: All of it!” he laughed. “Come on, man. It’s a dream!”
For more than three decades he’s been helping to make some of pop music’s biggest hits, from Nelly’s “Hot in Herre” to Gwen Stefani’s “Hollaback Girl,” while helping to bridge the gap between pop culture and high fashion.
He says the runway is just another way for him to show people who he is: “I always want to evoke a sense of joy, ’cause I feel like the world, there’s a deficit of joy.”
Sanneh asked, “But I imagine you do still have to pay attention to, ‘Are people buying these clothes that I made?'”
“Sure; that’s when you start questioning the success,” Williams said. “But like, man, you gotta enjoy it. If you enjoy it, nine times out of ten, somebody else gonna enjoy it.”
CBS News
Now there’s something new to enjoy: “Piece by Piece,” an animated Lego movie about Williams’ life, directed by the award-winning documentarian Morgan Neville. Last month, at the Toronto Film Festival, Williams said he still can’t believe he got to make this film. “I’m from a marginalized community where we often hear the word ‘no’ all the time,” he said. “For whatever reason, [for ‘Piece by Piece’], we got a lot of yeses.”
“This seems like one of your superpowers is getting people to say ‘yes’ to things they might otherwise say ‘no’ to,” said Sanneh.
“It wasn’t that hard; it’s just harder for people who look like me,” Williams replied. “But when we tell it in Lego, now it’s universal. Replace Black with LGBTQIA, or Indian, or Asian, or short, or plus size, or anything. LEGO is the great equalizer.”
To watch a trailer for “Piece by Piece,” click on the video player below:
As a boy growing up in a Virginia Beach apartment complex, Williams, a self-described misfit, saw and heard the world differently than most people, through a condition called synesthesia, by which he “sees” the colors of sound: “For me, sight and sound are still connected, so they send ghost images to each other. It’s a condition, but also at the same time it’s a gift, because I don’t know how I would make music if I couldn’t see it. That’s the way that I conceptualize it.”
With his childhood friend Chad Hugo, he formed a duo called The Neptunes. They were discovered by the music producer Teddy Riley, who saw them perform at a high school talent show. In 1992, around the time of his 19th birthday, Williams helped Riley write a hit single called “Rump Shaker,” recorded by the hip-hop group Wreckx-N-Effect.
Williams said, “If it wasn’t for Teddy Riley, I wouldn’t be sitting here right now. ‘Cause I was in Virginia Beach, Virginia, where there was no music studio or music industry or anything like that.”
The Neptunes produced a string of hits, and then Williams branched out on his own, becoming a real pop star. His voice was everywhere, although Williams himself had mixed feelings about it: “I had a song called ‘Beautiful’ with Snoop, right? Girls heard me singing that; I heard Mickey Mouse! I swear to you, when you just get a moment and you just listen, you’ll never be able to un-hear it again. But that’s what I hear.”
“Sexy Mickey Mouse?” asked Sanneh.
“No, not sexy, just Mickey Mouse. It was wild for me.”
By the early 2000s, Williams says he felt lost: “I had moved away from being a student, and things became too formulaic. And that was troubling to my spirit, and I could no longer feel what I was doing.”
He rebounded by being a bit more open to new ideas – working with Daft Punk on “Get Lucky,” and Robin Thicke on “Blurred Lines.”
“Get Lucky” by Daft Punk featuring Pharrell Williams and Nile Rodgers:
The producers of “Despicable Me 2” asked him to write a song for the soundtrack … something happy. “I would’ve never written a song called ‘Happy,'” he said. “It was commissioned for me to do. And on top of that, I didn’t think I was gonna have any more, like, hit records. The universe was like, ‘Well, not only are you wrong about that, but I’m gonna have three different commissions come from three different places, and these are gonna be the biggest records for you.’ It just humbled me because it was like, I couldn’t be pompous. I couldn’t be arrogant.”
“Happy” by Pharrell Williams:
Naturally, Williams, now 51, created the theme song for the new movie “Piece by Piece”:
He’s put a music studio in his office, so he can make songs while simultaneously working on the next Louis Vuitton collection. But he says he never feels as if he’s on the clock.
Asked if the pressure to create takes some of the joy out of it, Williams replied, “It’s not a pressure; it’s a privilege. You can’t go wrong when your aim is to enjoy what you do. You can’t go wrong.”
For more info:
Story produced by Robbyn McFadden. Editor: Steven Tyler.
Watch CBS News
Be the first to know
Get browser notifications for breaking news, live events, and exclusive reporting.
Watch CBS News
Be the first to know
Get browser notifications for breaking news, live events, and exclusive reporting.