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Will mortgage rates fall this spring? Here’s what the experts think
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Mortgage rates fell to low levels during the pandemic, dropping below 3% as real estate prices soared. But subsequent issues with inflation ultimately caused the Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark interest rate, which led consumer interest rates to climb over time. In turn, today’s average 30-year mortgage rate is much higher than it was during the pandemic at 6.88% (as of April 1, 2024).
Meanwhile, home prices have continued to climb and issues with low inventory are still common in many markets. Against this backdrop, many prospective homebuyers are watching and waiting to see if mortgage rates fall, which could help make homebuying more affordable overall. But what do experts think could happen with mortgage rates this spring? Here’s what you should know.
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Will mortgage rates fall this spring? Here’s what the experts think.
Many experts expect that mortgage rates won’t experience many, if any, drops this spring. Rather, experts expect that rate cuts could happen in the second half of the year instead.
Why mortgage rates might not budge much this spring
While mortgage rates don’t exactly depend on the Fed’s rate decisions, the Fed does have a big influence on the direction they take. And until issues with persistent inflation show more signs of easing, mortgage rates might not drop much.
“While we’re all eager for mortgage rates to head south this spring, I’m inclined to think it’s unlikely, especially with the Federal Reserve maintaining its ‘hold and observe’ strategy for now,” says Matt Dunbar, SVP of Southeast Region at Churchill Mortgage. “Despite their recent communications regarding future rate cuts, expecting a substantial drop in mortgage rates in the short term might be overly optimistic.”
That said, mortgage rates could start to fall toward the end of the spring, given the Fed’s meeting schedule.
“I don’t expect mortgage rates to fall until around the June 12th Fed meeting. The Fed isn’t expected to cut rates during their May meeting, which means any real drop in interest rates would not happen until late spring/early summer at the earliest,” says Will Matheson, co-founder and managing partner at Matheson Capital.
Even then, the initial Fed rate cut is expected to be 25 basis points, so that might not have a dramatic effect on mortgage interest rates.
“I expect rates to start falling during the second half of this year, when the Fed is projected to start cutting rates. By the end of the year, I expect mortgage rates to be down by 0.75-1.00 percentage points,” says Matheson.
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Expect ebbs and flows
Although the Fed isn’t expected to cut rates until at least June, mortgage rates could fluctuate up or down before then, based on the available data. However, buyers might not want to draw too many conclusions from these fluctuations.
“I don’t think mortgage rates are going to fall significantly this spring. Sure, we’ve seen some rates fall over the past few days, but mortgage rates tend to ebb and flow, and I don’t think we’re at a steady decline yet,” says Seamus Nally, CEO of TurboTenant.
“All signs point to rates dropping by the end of the year though, likely somewhere around 6%. Everyone is expecting the Federal Reserve to cut the benchmark interest rate in the latter half of the year, and once that happens, that is when I expect mortgage rates to start making a solid decline,” he adds.
Keep an eye on the data
While small fluctuations in mortgage rates might not indicate much, the mortgage market could get a head start before the Fed cuts interest rates. However, that depends on what data comes in.
“Based on incoming economic and CPI data, we could see some easing into the mid-to-low sixes, though surprises in data could potentially nudge rates in the opposite direction,” says Dunbar.
After the spring season ends, what happens with mortgage rates will again depend on how the economy’s doing and how the Fed interprets economic data.
“In the future, whether rates might drop depends largely on how the Federal Reserve perceives the economy’s progress toward its inflation and growth targets,” says Dunbar.
The bottom line
Overall, expert mortgage rate predictions typically don’t expect there to be much of a reduction in mortgage rates this spring, but perhaps a larger drop will happen later this year. But it’s worth noting that because much remains uncertain, it’s tough to get the market timing right. In turn, homebuyers might want to focus on getting the best deal on a home that fits their needs rather than trying to time the mortgage market. And if you do decide to buy a home now, there may be ways to get a lower mortgage rate, such as improving your credit score, putting down a larger down payment or getting seller concessions.
One of 43 monkeys bred for medical research that escaped a compound in South Carolina has been recovered unharmed, officials said Saturday.
Many of the others are still located a few yards from the property, jumping back and forth over the facility’s fence, police said in a statement.
The Rhesus macaques made a break for it Wednesday after an employee at the Alpha Genesis facility in Yemassee didn’t fully lock a door as she fed and checked on them, officials said.
The monkeys on Friday were exploring the outer fence of the Alpha Genesis compound and were cooing at the monkeys inside. The primates continued to interact with their companions inside the facility on Saturday, which is a positive sign, the police statement said.
Yemassee Police Department
Alpha Genesis CEO Greg Westergaard relayed that efforts to recover all the animals will persist throughout the weekend and for as long as it takes, the statement said.
Westergaard told CBS News on Thursday that a caretaker inadvertently failed to secure a door at the enclosure, allowing the monkeys to roam free.
“It’s really like follow-the-leader. You see one go and the others go,” he said. “It was a group of 50 and 7 stayed behind and 43 bolted out the door.”
Westergaard acknowledged that it would be a long process to get them back and that they didn’t want to chase the monkeys because that would spook them and make them run away.
“We’ve got them very close,” he told CBS News. “This is all like what we want to see.”
The monkeys are about the size of a cat. They are all females weighing about 7 pounds.
Alpha Genesis, federal health officials and police all said the monkeys pose no risk to public health. The facility breeds the monkeys to sell to medical and other researchers.
Alpha Genesis provides primates for research worldwide at its compound in Yemassee, about 50 miles (80 kilometers) northeast of Savannah, Georgia, according to its website.
A 31-year-old American tourist was killed while on vacation in Hungary’s capital, and the suspect, a 37-year-old Irish man, has been arrested, Hungarian police said Saturday.
The victim, Mackenzie Michalski was reported missing on Nov. 5 after she was last seen at a nightclub in central Budapest.
A Facebook group called “Find Mackenzie Michalski,” created on November 7, said Michalski, went by “Kenzie.” The group confirmed her death in a statement on Friday, thanking U.S. and Hungarian authorities for “their prompt attention, diligence, care, and consideration.”
Police launched a missing person investigation and reviewed security footage from local nightclubs where they observed Michalski with a man later identified as the suspect in several of the clubs the night of her disappearance.
Police detained the man, an Irish citizen, on the evening of Nov. 7. Investigators said that Michalski and the suspect met at a nightclub and danced before leaving for the man’s rented apartment. The man killed Michalski while they were engaged in an “intimate encounter,” police said.
The suspect, whom police identified by the initials L.T.M., later confessed to the killing but said it had been an accident. Police said that he had attempted to cover up his crime by cleaning the apartment and hiding Michalski’s body in a wardrobe before purchasing a suitcase and placing her body inside.
He then rented a car and drove to Lake Balaton, around 90 miles southwest of Budapest, where he disposed of the body in a wooden area outside the town of Szigliget.
Video released by police showed the suspect guiding authorities to the location where he had left the body. Police said the suspect had made internet searches before being apprehended on how to dispose of a body, police procedures in missing person cases, whether pigs really eat dead bodies and the presence of wild boars in the Lake Balaton area.
He also made an internet search inquiring about the competence of Budapest police.
Michalski’s parents are currently in Budapest, police told The Associated Press.
Friends posted condolences on the Facebook group of candles. Michalski was a nurse practitioner, the social media post said, who used “her humor, positivity, and limitless empathy to help heal her patients and encourage family and friends alike.”
Two years of record-breaking drought have dealt a heavy blow to what is arguably the Amazon’s most successful sustainable economy: the managed fishery for the giant pirarucu.
In Brazil´s Amazonas state, almost 6,000 riverine dwellers authorized to fish have reported a sharp drop in production and rising costs. They are demanding aid from the federal government and debating how to adapt to climate change.
Last year’s catch totaled 70% of the government-authorized quota of 100,443 fish. This year could see an even steeper decline, since many communities still haven´t been able to fish. The season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30.
Jorge Saenz / AP
Pirarucu managed fishing began in the Amazon 25 years ago in the Mamiraua region and has since expanded. It helped the Amazon’s largest fish escape risk of extinction and is now an important source of income for locals in 10 sustainable conservation units and eight Indigenous territories, where deforestation is close to zero.
Unlike other aquatic species of the Amazon, such as river dolphins, the pirarucu — also known as arapaima — historically have proven resilient to drought and climate change. But low water levels are making it extremely difficult for fishers to transport their catch from remote lakes to major rivers and onto cities.
It’s a mammoth task. The pirarucu, which can weigh up to 200 kilograms (440 pounds), lives in large lakes that during flood season are often connected to major rivers. Fishing typically occurs when water levels begin to recede, making it easier to trap the fish and transport them out in small boats or canoes. In several areas, however, water levels dropped so quickly that this connection was cut off before fishing could begin.
In the São Raimundo community in the Medio Jurua region, fishing is scheduled to start Saturday, a two-month delay — a common situation this season. As a result, Coletivo Pirarucu, an umbrella organization that represents 2,500 riverine and Indigenous families, has requested that the federal government extend fishing season until the end of January.
Even in large rivers navigation has become problematic, raising costs and uncertainty among fishermen. It usually takes three to four days to transport fish from Carauari municipality — a major pirarucu producer — to Manaus, the Amazon´s largest city. During the peak of the drought, the trip increased to 10 days, and the freight price has doubled.
Tough as pirarucu are, they are not immune to climate change, according to researcher Adalberto Luis Val from the National Institute for Amazonian Research. He says rising temperatures and severe droughts are exacerbating the “death trio” for all fish: warmer water, more CO2 and less oxygen.
The pirarucu has evolved to breathe air but is far from invincible.
“No fish can regulate body temperature,” Val said. “Then there’s water scarcity. As its level drops, you start to get a high amount of suspended material, leading to sludge buildup. It sticks to the gill area, blocking the processes that occur there.”
Fearing deteriorating conditions in the following decades, Coletivo Pirarucu contends that the fishermen should be entitled to compensation for losses caused by climate change. “This crisis not only challenges the resilience of communities but also highlights the urgent need for climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies,” the nonprofit stated in an open letter last week.
In an e-mail response, James Bessa, a federal official overseeing pirarucu management, said that Ibama, Brazil´s environmental agency, is working with other public bodies and local fishing associations to reduce the impact of extreme events like droughts and floods. He said there are plans to start scientific studies and closer monitoring to provide insights into ways to support riverine and Indigenous communities in sustaining their fishing activities.
Adevaldo Dias — a riverine leader who presides over the Chico Mendes Memorial, a nonprofit that assists traditional non-Indigenous communities — argues that adopting additional public policies to help the fishermen is a matter of climate justice.
“The Indigenous and riverine peoples have minimal impact on the environment,” Dias said. “We know that conserving the forest benefits both us and those outside it. And when extreme climate events occur, they are the most vulnerable.”
