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Democrats start out ahead in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin 2024 Senate races — CBS News Battleground Tracker poll
As Democrats play defense in U.S. Senate races this year, two battleground-state incumbents start out ahead in their reelection campaigns. Bob Casey in Pennsylvania and Tammy Baldwin in Wisconsin are currently leading their lesser-known Republican challengers by seven points.
Both Casey and Baldwin enjoyed large margins of victory in 2018, but their reelection bids look more competitive at the moment in what is a more challenging environment. We find plenty of undecided voters and good reasons for the races to tighten as the campaigns heat up this fall.
Why things might change
These estimates are snapshots of the race early in the election cycle. With several months to go before voting starts, there is plenty of time for movement.
So here’s why things could change: For one, the Republicans in the race are not well known to voters. It was under a week ago that David McCormick officially became the GOP nominee in Pennsylvania. He also ran for Senate in 2022, but lost to Mehmet Oz in the GOP primary. Eric Hovde in Wisconsin is currently much less familiar to voters than Baldwin, but the primary there isn’t until August, giving him plenty of time to get on voters’ radars and make his case.
Despite enjoying higher name recognition than their challengers, both Casey and Baldwin are under 50% in the current preferences of likely voters. That leaves some work for them to do to persuade enough undecided voters to get them over the top. And they would be doing so in a different environment than the one six years ago. Back then, widespread anger toward Donald Trump propelled huge turnout and a blue wave. Today, many voters are unhappy with President Biden’s job performance, and the presidential race is very competitive in these states right now.
And importantly, when you look at their recent votes for president and Congress, the undecided in these Senate races are by and large Republican voters — not surprising since they may not yet be familiar with their party’s nominee. They’re mostly voting for Trump at the top of the ticket. So there are lots of voters up for grabs who otherwise lean Republican.
Given the decline in ticket splitting, our baseline expectation should be that these undecided voters will pick GOP candidates down ballot. In fact, only 5% of likely voters in Pennsylvania and 4% in Wisconsin are currently choosing different parties for president and Senate, slightly benefiting the Democratic senators at the moment. If undecided voters were choosing the same party for president and Senate, the margin in both races would tighten to under five points.
These CBS News/YouGov surveys were conducted between April 19-25, 2024. They are based on representative samples of 1,306 registered voters in Pennsylvania and 1,245 in Wisconsin. Margins of error for likely voters are ±3.1 points in Pennsylvania and ±3.3 points in Wisconsin.
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Barry Enderwick is eating his way through history, one sandwich at a time. Every day from his home in San Jose, California, Enderwick posts a cooking video from a recipe that time forgot. From the 1905 British book “Salads, Sandwiches and Savouries,” Enderwick prepared the New York Sandwich.
The recipe called for 24 oysters, minced and mixed with mayonnaise, seasoned with lemon juice and pepper, and spread over buttered day-old French bread.
Rescuing recipes from the dustbin of history doesn’t always lead to culinary success. Sampling his New York Sandwich, Enderwick decried it as “a textural wasteland. No, thank you.” Into the trash bin it went!
But Enderwick’s efforts have yielded his own cookbook, a collection of some of the strangest – and sometimes unexpectedly delicious – historical recipes you’ve never heard of.
Harvard Common Press
He even has a traveling stage show: “Sandwiches of History Live.”
From the condiments to the sliced bread, this former Netflix executive has become something of a sandwich celebrity. “You can put just about anything in-between two slices of bread,” he said. “And it’s portable! In general, a sandwich is pretty easy fare. And so, they just have universal appeal.”
Though the sandwich gets its name famously from the Fourth Earl of Sandwich, the earliest sandwich Enderwick has eaten dates from 200 B.C.E. China, a seared beef sandwich called Rou Jia Mo.
He declared it delicious. “Between the onions, and all those spices and the soy sauce … oh my God! Oh man, this is so good!”
While Elvis was famous for his peanut butter and banana concoction, Enderwick says there’s another celebrity who should be more famous for his sandwich: Gene Kelly, who he says had “the greatest man sandwich in the world, which was basically mashed potatoes on bread. And it was delicious.”
Whether it’s a peanut and sardine sandwich (from “Blondie’s Cook Book” from 1947), or the parmesian radish sandwich (from 1909’s “The Up-To-Date Sandwich Book”), Enderwick tries to get a taste of who we were – good or gross – one recipe at a time.
RECIPE: A sophisticated club sandwich
Blogger Barry Enderwick, of Sandwiches of History, offers “Sunday Morning” viewers a 1958 recipe for a club sandwich that, he says, shouldn’t work, but actually does, really well!
MORE: “Sunday Morning” 2024 “Food Issue” recipe index
Delicious menu suggestions from top chefs, cookbook authors, food writers, restaurateurs, and the editors of Food & Wine magazine.
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Story produced by Anthony Laudato. Editor: Chad Cardin.
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