CBS News
FBI quarterly report shows 15% drop in violent crime compared to last year
The latest preliminary quarterly crime figures from the FBI show dramatic decreases: a 26% drop in murders, robberies down by nearly 18% and violent crime overall down 15% in the first quarter of 2024, compared to last year in the same period.
The FBI released only percentages Monday, however, and not the underlying figures, because at this point just 72% of law enforcement agencies have provided their crime data. The bureau will disclose more complete figures once 80% have participated.
Jeff Asher, co-founder of AH Datalytics, which tracks and analyzes criminal justice data, noted that three months of unaudited crime data could be considered “often accurate, if imprecise.” However, he characterized the overall direction as showing a “very large decline in murder and sizable declines in violent and property crime,” in an interview with CBS News’ John Dickerson on Monday.
Asher pointed out that 2020 saw a roughly 30% increase in murders, followed by another smaller increase in 2021. In 2022, there was a “small decrease,” and last year, he estimated there was “an 8% to 12% decline in murder.”
“We’ll almost certainly have a third straight year of declining murder — we should be roughly at or below where we were in 2019 in terms of murder,” Asher said.
He estimated that overall there was probably “a sizable decline” in violent crime in 2023, and if that also proves to be the case in 2024, “we’re talking about … some of the lowest violent crime rates that we’ve seen since the early 1970s.”
Attorney General Merrick Garland said that he understood over three years ago addressing the spike in violent crime that occurred early in the pandemic “would be one of the greatest challenges we would face at the Justice Department.”
“That is why we have poured every available resource into working with our law enforcement and community partners to drive down violent crime,” Garland said in a statement Monday. “But we know there is so much more work to do, and that the progress we have seen can still easily slip away.” He promised that the department would continue to find and prosecute “the principal drivers of gun violence,” invest in programs to enable more police officers to be hired and support community violence intervention programs.
Perceptions about crime are likely to play a role in this year’s elections, which did not escape President Biden, who hailed the latest FBI report and in a statement Monday claimed credit for working with communities in “putting more cops on the beat, holding violent criminals accountable, and getting illegal guns off the street.”
“As a result, Americans are safer today than when I took office,” he said — an inherent criticism of his predecessor and 2024 opponent, former President Donald Trump.
In April, Trump was asked about an earlier FBI report showing crime rates declined in 2023. He refused to accept that the report was accurate.
“The FBI fudged the numbers and other people fudged numbers. There is no way that crime went down over the last year. There’s no way because you have migrant crime,” he told Time. “Are they adding migrant crime? Or do they consider that a different form of crime?”
Asked whether he thought “local police departments,” the source of the data, “are wrong,” he replied, “I don’t believe it’s from the local police. What I saw was the FBI was giving false numbers.” But he offered no proof to back up his contention.
Asher said it’s likely that murder rates will largely be “some of the lowest we’ve reported in 60 years,” though he added, “you’re still talking about 18,000 or 19,000 murder victims” nationwide.
“It’s still an issue that needs to be solved,” he said. “And a lot of work needs to be done, even if trends are very positive.”
Andres Triay contributed to this report.
CBS News
Biden’s top hostage envoy Roger Carstens in Syria to ask for help in finding Austin Tice
Roger Carstens, the Biden administration’s top official for freeing Americans held overseas, on Friday arrived in Damascus, Syria, for a high-risk mission: making the first known face-to-face contact with the caretaker government and asking for help finding missing American journalist Austin Tice.
Tice was kidnapped in Syria 12 years ago during the civil war and brutal reign of now-deposed Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad. For years, U.S. officials have said they do not know with certainty whether Tice is still alive, where he is being held or by whom.
The State Department’s top diplomat for the Middle East, Barbara Leaf, assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs, accompanied Carstens to Damascus as a gesture of broader outreach to Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, known as HTS, the rebel group that recently overthrew Assad’s regime and is emerging as a leading power.
Near East Senior Adviser Daniel Rubinstein was also with the delegation. They are the first American diplomats to visit Damascus in over a decade, according to a State Department spokesperson.
They plan to meet with HTS representatives to discuss transition principles endorsed by the U.S. and regional partners in Aqaba, Jordan, the spokesperson said. Secretary of State Antony Blinken traveled to Aqaba last week to meet with Middle East leaders and discuss the situation in Syria.
While finding and freeing Tice and other American citizens who disappeared under the Assad regime is the ultimate goal, U.S. officials are downplaying expectations of a breakthrough on this trip. Multiple sources told CBS News that Carstens and Leaf’s intent is to convey U.S. interests to senior HTS leaders, and learn anything they can about Tice.
Rubinstein will lead the U.S. diplomacy in Syria, engaging directly with the Syrian people and key parties in Syria, the State Department spokesperson added.
Diplomatic outreach to HTS comes in a volatile, war-torn region at an uncertain moment. Two sources even compared the potential danger to the expeditionary diplomacy practiced by the late U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens, who led outreach to rebels in Benghazi, Libya, in 2012 and was killed in a terrorist attack on a U.S. diplomatic compound and intelligence post.
U.S. special operations forces known as JSOC provided security for the delegation as they traveled by vehicle across the Jordanian border and on the road to Damascus. The convoy was given assurances by HTS that it would be granted safe passage while in Syria, but there remains a threat of attacks by other terrorist groups, including ISIS.
CBS News withheld publication of this story for security concerns at the State Department’s request.
Sending high-level American diplomats to Damascus represents a significant step in reopening U.S.-Syria relations following the fall of the Assad regime less than two weeks ago. Operations at the U.S. embassy in Damascus have been suspended since 2012, shortly after the Assad regime brutally repressed an uprising that became a 14-year civil war and spawned 13 million Syrians to flee the country in one of the largest humanitarian disasters in the world.
The U.S. formally designated HTS, which had ties to al Qaeda, as a foreign terrorist organization in 2018. Its leader, Mohammed al Jolani, was designated as a terrorist by the US in 2013 and prior to that served time in a US prison in Iraq.
Since toppling Assad, HTS has publicly signaled interest in a new more moderate trajectory. Al Jolani even shed his nom de guerre and now uses his legal name, Ahmed al-Sharaa.
U.S. sanctions on HTS linked to those terrorist designations complicate outreach somewhat, but they haven’t prevented American officials from making direct contact with HTS at the direction of President Biden. Blinken recently confirmed that U.S. officials were in touch with HTS representatives prior to Carstens and Leaf’s visit.
“We’ve heard positive statements coming from Mr. Jolani, the leader of HTS,” Blinken told Bloomberg News on Thursday. “But what everyone is focused on is what’s actually happening on the ground, what are they doing? Are they working to build a transition in Syria that brings everyone in?”
In that same interview, Blinken also seemed to dangle the possibility that the U.S. could help lift sanctions on HTS and its leader imposed by the United Nations, if HTS builds what he called an inclusive nonsectarian government and eventually holds elections. The Biden administration is not expected to lift the U.S. terrorist designation before the end of the president’s term on January 20th.
Pentagon spokesperson Pat Ryder disclosed Thursday that the U.S. currently has approximately 2,000 US troops inside of Syria as part of the mission to defeat ISIS, a far higher number than the 900 troops the Biden administration had previously acknowledged. There are at least five U.S. military bases in the north and south of the country.
The Biden administration is concerned that thousands of ISIS prisoners held at a camp known as al-Hol could be freed. It is currently guarded by the Syrian Democratic forces, Kurdish allies of the U.S. who are wary of the newly-powerful HTS. The situation on the ground is rapidly changing since Russia and Iran withdrew military support from the Assad regime, which has reset the balance of power. Turkey, which has been a sometimes problematic U.S. ally, has been a conduit to HTS and is emerging as a power broker.
A high-risk mission like this is unusual for the typically risk averse Biden administration, which has exercised consistently restrained diplomacy. Blinken approved Carstens and Leaf’s trip and relevant congressional leaders were briefed on it days ago.
“I think it’s important to have direct communication, it’s important to speak as clearly as possible, to listen, to make sure that we understand as best we can where they’re going and where they want to go,” Blinken said Thursday.
At a news conference in Moscow Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he had not yet met with Assad, who fled to Russia when his regime fell earlier this month. Putin added that he would ask Assad about Austin Tice when they do meet.
Tice, a Marine Corps veteran, worked for multiple news organizations including CBS News.
CBS News
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Delivering Tomorrow: talabat’s Evolution in the Middle East
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