CBS News
Trump maintains edge over Biden in battleground states on eve of GOP convention, CBS News poll finds
Donald Trump and the Republican Party will begin their convention week with a narrow but consistent advantage across the battleground states, which would translate into Trump being better positioned to win in the Electoral College right now.
Things essentially haven’t changed since the immediate aftermath of the debate, when sentiment shifted slightly toward Trump, so this remains a fairly stable contest in that regard.
These polls and estimates were completed before the shooting at the Trump rally Saturday in Pennsylvania.
These state-level estimates are derived from CBS News’ statistical model, based on this survey of voters across the seven battleground states.
As has been the case for months, Trump benefits from the larger percentage of Republicans who say they’re likely to vote than Democrats to say they’ll turn out this year.
Across the battlegrounds, Mr. Biden continues to trail overwhelmingly among voters who do not think he has the cognitive and mental health to serve.
Despite positive macroeconomic measures and news about the U.S. economy, just half of voters say their own financial situation is good, and Trump benefits from winning the votes of people who say their incomes have not kept up with inflation.
National picture: Biden and the Democrats
Meanwhile, in our separate national survey that takes a look at Democrats and a look ahead to what Republicans want at the convention:
This week, neither the continued discussion over whether Mr. Biden should step aside as the party’s nominee, nor his pushback against the idea, has moved the needle on that topic much either way.
Almost half of Democrats say he should — only slightly higher than it was right after the debate.
When Democratic voters are asked to turn into campaign strategists, there’s no consensus about how a hypothetical Kamala Harris candidacy might fare in terms of her electoral fortunes.
But views on it are strongly related to views about Mr. Biden: those who think Harris would do better against Trump do think Mr. Biden ought to step down.
Trump and his VP
In another sign of how this is Donald Trump’s party: after cruising through the primaries, there is greater satisfaction among rank-and-file Republicans with having Trump as the nominee today than there was when he first won the nomination in 2016. Twice as many Republicans are excited about it today than they were then.
With Trump expected to soon reveal his choice of a running mate, Republican voters would generally be satisfied — but not necessarily enthusiastic — about some reportedly being considered. Many voters aren’t sure either way, which is not surprising before a convention.
(Nikki Haley, who is reportedly not on that list, would draw the most dissatisfaction and would especially disappoint MAGA Republicans.)
Their nominee’s prospects may be looking up, but Republicans voice continuing suspicion about the electoral process.
Fully half the party already says they should challenge the results if Trump does not win this year.
As they have since the last election, a large majority of Republicans do not believe Biden was legitimately elected in 2020, and most believe there was widespread fraud in the vote.
Overall, attention to the campaign remains up after the debate, with about six in 10 registered voters saying they’re thinking “a lot” about the 2024 race these days.
Data and results above are based on the following:
Battleground states survey: This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a representative sample of 1,093 registered voters living in battleground states interviewed between July 5-12, 2024. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, and education, based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as past vote. The margin of error for the total sample is ±3.4 points. Battlegrounds: AZ GA MI NC NV PA WI.
State-level estimates of vote choice: The CBS statistical model applies multilevel regression with post-stratification to produce estimates of two-way support in each battleground state, incorporating survey responses, voter files, and U.S. Census data, as well as past vote in states.
National survey: This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a representative sample of 2,004 registered voters nationwide interviewed between July 10-13 , 2024. The data includes an oversample in self-identified Republicans. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, and education, based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as past vote. The margin of error for the total sample is ±2.8 points.
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The Biden administration is beginning to retaliate against China for its sweeping hack of U.S. telecommunications companies earlier this year.
Last week the Commerce Department issued a notice to China Telecom Americas, the U.S. subsidiary of one of China’s largest communications firms, alleging in a preliminary finding that its presence in American telecom networks and cloud services poses a national security risk. The company has 30 days to respond, although the Commerce Department has not said what action it plans to take next.
The New York Times was the first to report the action, which is a direct response to China’s infiltration of telecom networks earlier this year. The China-backed hacking group known as Salt Typhoon penetrated the networks of numerous companies including Verizon, AT&T and Lumen Technologies, a U.S. official familiar with the matter told to CBS News in October.
It’s unclear what the impact on China Telecom would be, since the FCC has already limited China Telecom Americas’ ability to operate in U.S. communications infrastructure. In October 2021, the FCC revoked its license to provide phone services in the US.
The FCC found that China Telecom “is subject to exploitation, influence, and control by the Chinese government and is highly likely to be forced to comply with Chinese government requests without sufficient legal procedures subject to independent judicial oversight.”
China Telecom Americas has not responded to requests for comment.
U.S. law enforcement and intelligence officials are continuing to try to learn more about the scope of the hack, which targeted U.S. surveillance capabilities used for operations including wiretaps. U.S. intelligence officials routinely seek court authorization to use telecom systems like those targeted in the breach to collect information for law enforcement or national security probes.
One fear is that the cyberattacks could have allowed the hackers to access information about ongoing U.S. investigations — including those tied to China — through the collection of sensitive data and techniques.
China’s incursions into U.S. critical infrastructure — including water treatment plants and the electrical grid — have lawmakers on Capitol Hill and the incoming Trump administration warning of a more aggressive retaliatory posture going forward.
Rep. Mike Waltz, designated by President-elect Trump to be national security adviser, told Margaret Brennan on “Face the Nation” Sunday, “We need to start going on offense and start imposing, I think, higher costs and consequences to private actors and nation state actors that continue to steal our data, that continue to spy on us.”
Last month, Rep. Jim Himes, Democrat of Connecticut and the ranking on the House Intelligence Committee, issued a similar warning.
“We’re not just going to name and shame,” he said on “Face the Nation.” “We are going to go into their networks and give as good as we got.”
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