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Investors are putting their money on the “Trump trade.” Here’s what that means.
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As former President Donald Trump stretches his lead at the polls over President Joe Biden, investors are already laying bets on what Trump’s return to power could mean for the U.S. economy, stock prices, and individual industries and companies. Wall Street has dubbed such market moves the “Trump trade.”
A Trump presidency would bring “important macro and market implications, with the key impacts likely revolving around trade policy and tariffs,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report. For example, Trump’s plan to impose universal tariffs on U.S. imports would likely benefit companies that mostly do business here at home, as opposed to global players, according to the investment bank.
The so-called Trump trade “has to do with those companies viewed as being the primary beneficiaries of a Trump presidency and the agenda he has laid out so far,” JJ Kinahan, CEO of IG North America, told CBS MoneyWatch. “This is speculation — as we both know, what’s said and what ends up happening can be two different things.”
What’s driving up stocks?
Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B Riley Wealth, also sounded a cautionary note. “The things that get said and proposed on the campaign trail are often difficult to put into place once you get to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue,” he said.
Hogan also advises against making stock predictions based on an election more than 100 days away. “Even if I could tell the results right now, I still couldn’t tell you what is going to do well,” he said.
“The economy drives earnings, and earnings drive stocks,” said Hogan, who attributes the market’s upward drift this year to S&P 500 earnings and expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut its benchmark interest rate in September.
“The assumption that we would continue with tax cuts and lower interest rates — which we were going to have anyway — is behind the recent run higher in small-cap stocks,” he added.
Investors also think Trump’s return to the White House would mean less regulation, a potential tailwind for heavily regulated sectors such as banking and energy.
At the same time, economists warn that Trump’s plan to erect stiff new tariffs and deport immigrants would likely cause a flare-up in inflation.
Which industries could benefit?
In his acceptance speech Thursday night, Trump underlined his intention to crank up production of fossil fuels, with Kinahan noting the Republican nominee’s repeated refrain of “drill, baby, drill.” That would make energy giants such as Exxon among the biggest gainers under a Trump administration eager to pump oil despite the growing fallout from climate change.
Another area that investors think has upside in a second Trump presidency is cryptocurrencies. Trump, once a critic of digital currencies, has more recently sounded bullish on cryptos, while his running mate, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, has long been a proponent.
On Friday, shares of crypto-related stocks rose even as the overall market fell, with digital currency platforms Coinbase up nearly 8%, Marathon Digital advancing 5% and Riot Platforms ahead 6.5%.
Private prison stocks including Geo Group also have risen on Trump’s talk of “rounding up immigrants and putting them into detention,” Hogan said.
Trump moving markets
As investors size up the shifting electoral odds, Trump’s public pronouncements are already moving financial markets. Trump’s recent comments about jacking up tariffs on China and requiring Taiwan to pay for U.S. military protection this week triggered a sell-off in semiconductor, AI and other large tech companies, with even star performers like Nvidia taking a tumble.
“People forget that the 2018 tariffs put the U.S. manufacturing sector into a recession, and we’ve been in another one for the past two years,” Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Financial Group said this week in an email. “Another tariff battle is a bad thing. Another economic fight with the second largest economy is a bad thing.”
Still, the market’s knee-jerk reaction is likely to be short-lived, according to Wedbush analysts, who expect the tech sector to continue climbing in 2025.
“Our longstanding view navigating Trump politics and the tech sector is the political rhetoric during this political climate and Beltway races will be loud but, ultimately just like our view since 2016, the bark will be way worse than the bite on the U.S./China Cold Tech War fears,” they wrote.
CBS News
Pope Francis, 87, appears spritely after health troubles as epic Asia trip gets underway with Indonesia visit
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Jakarta, Indonesia — Pope Francis appeared in good health and good humor Wednesday on the first full day of what will be a marathon trip for the 87-year-old leader of the Catholic Church to Southeast Asia and Oceania. Over 12 days, Francis is scheduled to travel more than 20,000 miles and visit four countries — Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor and Singapore.
It is scheduled to be the longest and most challenging trip of Francis’ 11-year papacy. He has suffered health issues over the past few years and now uses a wheelchair.
The Vatican said no special precautions were being taken for this trip, but, as usual, Francis was traveling with a doctor and two nurses.
Speaking with CBS Evening News anchor and managing editor Norah O’Donnell in May, Francis said the idea of stepping down had never occurred to him, and he described his health as “fine” despite a recent bout with the flu and two rounds of intestinal surgery. The pope has also had only one full lung since undergoing surgery as a young man in Argentina, leaving him susceptible to respiratory illness.
In his first speech in Indonesia, the world’s most populous Muslim country, Francis condemned religious extremism, saying it distorted religion by using deception and violence.
“There are times when faith can be manipulated to foment divisions and increase hatred,” the pope told Indonesian politicians and religious leaders gathered at the presidential palace in Jakarta. He urged them to fight religious intolerance through dialogue.
“In this way,” he said, “prejudices can be eliminated, and a climate of mutual respect and trust can grow.”
Religious freedom is protected by the Indonesian constitution and the country prides itself on its diversity and tolerance, but Islamic fundamentalism has made inroads, and there have been incidents of religious violence in recent years.
Divisione Produzione Fotografica/Getty
Francis also met Wednesday with Indonesian Catholic priests and nuns at the cathedral in Jakarta, offering words of encouragement and support.
On Thursday, Francis is scheduled to celebrate mass in Jakarta with the country’s Catholics, a tiny but vibrant minority of barely 3% of the population. The Asia Pacific region is one of the few areas of the world where Catholicism is growing, both in terms of baptized faithful and in vocations.
The pope is also expected to meet Thursday with Indonesia’s top Muslim leader, and the two will sign a joint declaration on humanitarian and environmental issues, and religious tolerance.
CBS News
Eye Opener: DOJ unseals charges against Hamas leaders for October 7 attack
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How to prepare for lower mortgage interest rates, according to experts
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Summer is traditionally home-buying season, but a Gallup poll released this past May found that 76% of Americans said it was a bad time to make a purchase. High mortgage interest rates and high home prices made the market unattractive for would-be owners.
There’s some good news on the horizon for those hoping to get a rung on the property ladder, though. Fall may bring more than just a dip in temperature. Slowing inflation has the Federal Reserve eyeing a rate cut at its September meeting and while the Fed doesn’t control mortgage rates, a reduction in the overnight rate at which banks borrow may drive down home loan costs.
Anticipation of an upcoming rate cut has already pushed rates to their lowest levels since April 2023, but most experts believe there’s still more room to fall. If that’s the case, borrowers should start preparing now so they’re ready to act.
Start by seeing how low of a mortgage interest rate you could secure here now.
How to prepare for lower mortgage interest rates, according to experts
Here are four effective ways the experts we spoke to recommended preparing for lower mortgage interest rates.
Consider whether to act before a rate drop
With rate cuts likely imminent, it may seem crazy to move forward on a home purchase before that happens. However, there’s an argument to be made that this counterintuitive move could be the right one and that you shouldn’t wait for mortgage rates to fall before you buy.
“Yes, you would have a lower payment on the same mortgage with lower interest rates, but this is not the only factor to consider,” according to Domenick D’Andrea, a financial advisor and co-founder of DanDarah Wealth Management. D’Andrea is one of many voices warning that a rate cut could send home prices soaring.
“Overall inventory is still tight and when rates do drop, we may see a lot of buyers enter the market,” according to Fred Bolstad, Head of Retail Home Lending at U.S. Bank. Increased demand could result in sharply rising prices, which could price some buyers out until supply catches up.
“My advice is that if you find your dream home, buy it if it’s within your means and look to refinance in the future,” D’Andrea recommended. It’s always possible to refinance your mortgage if you have solid financial credentials, but if rising demand after a rate drop sends prices skyrocketing, buying at today’s lower costs will no longer be a viable choice.
Start exploring your top mortgage options online now.
Work on becoming a well-qualified borrower
Prevailing rates impact what you’ll pay for a home loan, but so do your financial credentials. Taking steps to become a better future customer can help you prepare for a rate drop in the coming months.
“Home buyers anticipating lower mortgage rates in the fall can use this time to strengthen their financial position,” recommended Douglas A. Boneparth, CFP Financial Advisor and President of Bone Fide Wealth, LLC. “Focus on your credit score by paying down existing debts and ensuring all payments are made on time. A higher credit score can help secure better rates when the time comes.”
When deciding whether you can borrow and what rate you’ll pay, mortgage lenders consider credit history and debt-to-income ratio among other financial credentials. Making positive changes to these metrics will help you get a lower mortgage rate now and take advantage of the most competitive rates in the future.
Stay informed about the mortgage market
It’s impossible to predict future rates with 100% certainty, but if you’re waiting on the sidelines to buy a home until rates drop, it’s a good idea to pay careful attention to market conditions. Certain metrics can help you decide when it’s time to move forward.
“Buyers should stay informed about the housing market and mortgage trends,” Boneparth suggested. “Monitoring rate forecasts and economic indicators can help them make more strategic decisions on timing their purchase.”
It’s already possible to find mortgages under 7% and Freddie Mac provides regular updates on average mortgage rates to help you decide when it’s time to act.
Reach out to mortgage lenders and consider pre-approval
Finally, it’s a good idea to get some paperwork started if you’re hoping to move forward when a rate drop happens.
“Getting pre-approved for a mortgage now can give buyers an edge by showing sellers that they are serious and financially prepared,” Boneparth suggested.
Pre-approval requires providing financial credentials to a lender who will evaluate them and determine how much you can borrow. You don’t have to lock in your mortgage rate right away when you get pre-approved, but you’ll be ready to move quickly if a competitive offer becomes available.
“If you have a relationship with a mortgage loan officer, stay in contact and talk through scenarios to better understand what aligns with your financial goals,” Bolstad suggested. “Having pre-approval in hand will be advantageous. And if there are actions you need to take to become buyer-ready, a mortgage loan officer can help develop a plan.”
By evaluating current borrowing opportunities, improving financial credentials and connecting with a mortgage lender to explore options, borrowers waiting for rates to drop can ensure they get the best possible deal once long-anticipated rate cuts arrive.
Have more questions about when to act? Learn more about your options online today.