Connect with us

CBS News

Here’s what investors are saying about Biden dropping out — and what it means for your 401(k)

Avatar

Published

on


President Biden’s announcement that he is dropping out of the race for the White House and endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris to be the Democratic candidate has prompted investors and economists to reassess the campaign’s impact on everything from the stock market to the so-called “Trump trade.”

So far, U.S. markets are taking Biden’s announcement to leave the campaign in stride, with the the broad-based S&P 500 index and the tech-focused Nasdaq both rising in Monday trading, partly as Wall Street had already priced in the likelihood of Biden stepping down. But in the near-term, investors caution there could be more volatility in U.S. markets, especially if the race tightens with a new Democratic candidate.

Prior to Biden’s Sunday decision, former President Trump had gained an edge in the polls, securing his largest national lead over Biden in the campaign until that point. That tailwind helped spark the Trump trade, which describes a strategy to invest in the assets and stocks that investors believe could profit under a Republican White House, ranging from cryptocurrencies to energy stocks.

But now, Wall Street is sizing up the new landscape and examining the economic policies and views of Harris, who has gained support from leading Democrats to replace Biden atop the ticket. A new Democratic presidential candidate could ultimately result in a tighter race than had been predicted prior to Biden’s decision, which could spark more volatility across U.S. markets as investors try to gauge which party — and their economic policies — will win out in November, investors said. 

“U.S. politics will be far more unpredictable for at least the next three months than investors had expected — and this heightened uncertainty is bound to be bearish for most assets, especially those priced for perfection, with valuations that assume predictability in a world where we should expect the unexpected,” said Anatole Kaletsky, co-founder and chief economist of investment advisory firm Gavekal, in a research note.

Stock market impact

In other words, some investors are cautioning that the S&P 500, which has surged 22% in the last 12 months, might face downward pressure due to the fresh unpredictability in the presidential race. 

“Biden stepping down is a whole new level of political uncertainty. This may be the catalyst for market volatility that is overdue,” noted Gina Bolvin, president of Bolvin Wealth Management Group, in an email.

Even so, Wall Street’s shrug on Monday morning underscores that investors typically rely on key economic data — such as inflation reports and corporate earnings — in deciding where and when to invest, rather than political races. By many measures, the U.S. economy is expected to remain strong in 2024, with Goldman Sachs on Sunday forecasting GDP growth of 2.5% in the second half of 2024, which would put the U.S. on pace to match 2023’s growth. 

The Fed is also widely expected to start cutting interest rates at its September meeting, a step that could help ease borrowing costs for homebuyers and businesses, potentially also spurring investment and spending.

“[I]nvestors should remember that U.S. political outcomes are far from the largest driver of financial market returns, or even sector performance,” said Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, in an email. “Economic data and Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations remain at least as important.”

Trump trade

To be sure, many institutional investors are still giving Trump the inside track, regardless of if he runs against Harris or another Democratic opponent. Election odds have dipped slightly for Trump, while Harris’ odds have jumped 11 percentage points, although she’s still trailing Trump, according to prediction market Polymarket.

The new odds have shifted some of investors’ focus away from the Trump trade, which appears to be fading in the aftermath of Biden’s decision. For instance, with Trump viewed as favorable toward cryptocurrencies, bitcoin had surged more than 50% this year so far. But on Monday, bitcoin prices slid 1.5%, while other cryptocurrencies also lost ground. 

In recent weeks, “We have seen some rotation toward ‘red’ sectors and away from ‘blue’ ones … as recent momentum has favored the Republican Party,” UBS’ Marcelli noted. “That could at least partially reverse in the coming days as markets parse the latest developments.”

What are Harris’ economic views?

Meanwhile, Wall Street is also focusing on Harris’ economic views, assessing what her candidacy and a potential White House win could mean for the economy and U.S. markets. She’s likely to continue with Biden’s policies, including his focus on addressing climate change and scrutinizing anticompetitive practices from big corporations, economists said.

Another Democratic administration “would likely continue to support initiatives benefiting green energy, efficiency and electric vehicle makers,” Marcelli noted. 

One major area where Biden and Harris do differ is on trade policy, according to BTIG’s Isaac Boltansky in a Monday research report. 

“In fact, following our survey of policy proposals and numerous contact conversations, the only area of slight departure we could find was on trade policy,” Boltansky wrote.

Harris, for example, voted against the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) when she served in the Senate. That 2020 trade deal, signed into law by former President Donald Trump, replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), with Harris opposing it due to climate concerns. She also opposed the Trans-Pacific Partnership, or TPP, a 2016 trade deal, due to similar issues. 

That could suggest that Harris might prioritize environmental and climate concerns over trade deals, for instance. But “that’s what matters most as there are few, if any, policy differences between Biden and Harris,” Boltansky noted.



Read the original article

Leave your vote

CBS News

Mezcal producers preserve traditional methods as demand for liquor grows | 60 Minutes

Avatar

Published

on


Mezcal producers preserve traditional methods as demand for liquor grows | 60 Minutes – CBS News


Watch CBS News



Demand for mezcal was low for years, but interest and sales have soared. The vast majority of the spirit is made in Oaxaca, Mexico, where family-owned distilleries dot the landscape.

Be the first to know

Get browser notifications for breaking news, live events, and exclusive reporting.




Read the original article

Leave your vote

Continue Reading

CBS News

Vladimir Kara-Murza says he got warning during Russian prisoner swap | 60 Minutes

Avatar

Published

on


Vladimir Kara-Murza, a fierce critic of Vladimir Putin who was sentenced to 25 years in a Russian prison, was on his way to freedom after he was released during a prisoner swap when an FSB agent shared ominous parting advice. 

“‘Be careful about what you eat. You know how these things happen,'” Kara-Murza said he was told. 

Kara-Murza had already survived two poisonings — first in 2015 and then again in 2017. He was then arrested in 2022 and tried for treason last year after denouncing Putin’s war on Ukraine

Kara-Murza knew the risks that come with speaking out against Putin, but he did it anyway.

“There are causes larger than ourselves. And to me, the cause of a free, peaceful, civilized and democratic Russia is certainly much larger than I could ever be,” he said. 

Surviving poisonings

Kara-Murza had been high on Putin’s list since 2012, when he worked with the late Sen. John McCain on the so-called Magnitsky Act, a U.S. law named for a man murdered by prison guards. The Magnitsky Act allows for the seizure of the overseas assets of foreign officials who abuse human rights, and more than 60 people have been sanctioned. 

Vladimir Kara-Murza
Vladimir Kara-Murza

60 Minutes


Kara-Murza says Kremlin assassins poisoned him in 2015 because of his work on the Magnitsky Act.

He was in a coma for about a month and suffered from multiple organ failure. Doctors in Moscow told his wife he had about a 5% chance of survival. As Kara-Murza was recovering, he had to learn how to walk and eat again. 

“It’s amazing how fast the human body just loses everything, just loses all the strength and you just have to start anew,” he said. 

Two years later, in 2017, he was poisoned again. This time, he went to the U.S., where his wife and three children live, to recover. Kara-Murza is a U.S. permanent resident. 

But once he recovered, he returned to Russia.

“How could I not go back to Russia? I am a Russian politician. A politician has to be in their own country,” Kara-Murza said. “How could I call on my fellow citizens and my fellow Russians to stand up and oppose this dictatorship if I myself was too scared to do it? How is that possible?”

Kara-Murza continues speaking out as Putin cracks down 

Kara-Murza says all of Putin’s opponents are either in exile, in prison, or dead.

Shortly after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, lawmakers passed a law imposing a 15-year prison sentence for those who criticize the war.

“We tried to warn the world. We tried to shout,” Kara-Murza said. “We tried to get the message out that this regime is dangerous, that this man is dangerous.”

After his treason conviction last year, Kara-Murza was hit with the longest sentence ever for a political prisoner. The judge in the case had been among the first Russian officials sanctioned under the Magnitsky Act. 

Kara-Murza thought it was a “job well done” when he heard his sentence. 

“I think that 25-year sentence was, frankly, a recognition that what we did over all those years mattered, that the Magnitsky Act mattered, that public opposition to the war in Ukraine mattered,” he said. “Yes, it means it was a job well done.”

Life behind bars and being freed

Kara-Murza spent two-and-a-half years imprisoned. He was sent to Siberia, and put in solitary confinement. He says he was only able to call his wife once and only allowed to speak with his children twice. 

“And it was a 15-minute call, so five minutes per child,” he said. “And as my wife later told me, she was standing there with a stopwatch to make sure that each of our kids doesn’t get more than five minutes so that everybody could have an opportunity to speak with dad.”

He thought he would never get out, so he views what happened on Aug. 1 as a miracle. 

“A large group of officers burst into my cell. I have no idea what’s happening. It’s the middle of the night. It’s dark,” Kara-Murza said. “And they tell me I have 10 minutes to get up and get ready. And at this moment, I’m absolutely certain that I’m gonna be led out and be executed.”

Instead, he was one of eight Russian dissidents released, along with several Germans and three Americans, in exchange for eight Russian criminals and spies. It was the largest prisoner exchange since the Cold War. President Biden’s administration, along with officials in several other countries, had spent months negotiating the prisoner swap. 

After he stepped off a plane in Turkey, a diplomat from the American embassy came over and handed Kara-Murza a phone. President Biden was on the line, along with Kara-Murza’s family. They were calling from the Oval Office. 

“It felt surreal, it felt more emotional than I had ever felt at any point in my life,” Kara-Murza said.

Continuing to speak out against Putin 

60 Minutes correspondent Scott Pelley asked Kara-Murza if he thinks Putin will try to kill him.

“We know what it entails to be in opposition to Vladimir Putin,” Kara-Murza said. “He’s not just a dictator. He’s not just an authoritarian leader. He’s not just a strongman. He is a murderer. That man is a murderer.”

Kara-Murza, who remains in the U.S. with his family, shared his hopes that ordinary Russians standing up to Putin are remembered.

“I hope that when people in the West, that when people in the United States, when people in the free world at large think about Russia, they will remember not only the aggressors and the war criminals who are sitting in the Kremlin, but also those who are standing up to them,” he said. “Because we are Russians too.”



Read the original article

Leave your vote

Continue Reading

CBS News

Florida home hurricane damage reports changed, whistleblowers say | 60 Minutes

Avatar

Published

on


Jeff Rapkin admits that he prayed for the “untimely demise” of the adjuster who examined his home after it was devastated by 2022’s Hurricane Ian. 

Rapkin, a Florida resident and father, said the adjuster told him his house would likely need to be entirely rebuilt. So Rapkin was shocked when Heritage Property and Casualty Insurance, his insurance company, sent him just $15,000, minus their deductible. 

As it turns out, the adjuster, Jordan Lee, was also shocked, as he wrote in his report that he believed the Rapkins were owed $231,368.57. Lee says he later learned dozens of his damage reports had been materially altered. 

“It was basically all of them,” Lee said. 

Assessing homes after Ian

Intense winds and heavy rainfall caused an estimated $113 billion in damages when Hurricane Ian made landfall in September 2022. The Rapkins had weathered more than a half dozen hurricanes inside their home, but Ian was different, Rapkin said.

“It felt like the hurricane was inside the house,” Rapkin said. “We couldn’t keep the windows closed.”

Video shows the steel roof being ripped from their home during the hurricane. Ian left trees on and around their house. The roof was shredded and everything inside the home was soaked. 

Sharyn Alfonsi with Ginny and Jeff Rapkin
Sharyn Alfonsi with Ginny and Jeff Rapkin

60 Minutes


The Rapkins called Heritage after the storm to start the claims process. Heritage sent over Lee, a licensed adjuster since 2017, to assess the damage. After major disasters, most insurance companies use third-party firms that hire adjusters, like Lee, to help them with the thousands of claims. 

Lee says he leaves his cellphone number with homeowners after he assesses a house so that they can call him if they have any questions. His phone started ringing after Ian with angry homeowners on the other end. 

“Cussin’ me out left and right, up and down. You know, ‘how could you do this to us?'” Lee said. “It was really bad, actually. And out of the thousands of claims that I’ve handled, I’ve never had phone calls like that.”

“Allegations of systemic criminal fraud”

Two years later, whistleblowers, who are all licensed adjusters, say that after Hurricane Ian, several insurance carriers used altered reports to deceive customers and lower payouts.

An estimated 50,000 homeowners impacted by Ian are still fighting with their insurance companies to repair or rebuild their homes. The Rapkins filed a lawsuit against Heritage accusing the company of breach of contract and fraud. 

While looking into what went wrong with the Rapkin home, Lee learned a desk adjuster, who had never been to the family home, had deleted entire sections of his report, but left his name and license number on it, making it look like his work. 

It is standard procedure for field adjusters to collaborate with those back in the office to make minor edits, but Lee said that’s not what happened with the Rapkin report.

As he dug into his hurricane work, Lee saw 44 of his 46 Ian reports had been adjusted to give the policyholder less money. One estimate he wrote for about $488,000 was changed to approximately $13,000. Another was revised from about $239,000 to around $3,000. 

Jordan Lee
Jordan Lee

60 Minutes


Lee and two other adjusters testified to Florida lawmakers on Dec. 13, 2022, about what one watchdog group called “systemic criminal fraud” by the insurance companies.

Ben Mandell, a licensed adjuster for a decade, did not work for Heritage, but said 18 of the 20 reports he wrote for another insurance company after Ian were altered. Mandell said that he and other adjusters were instructed by some of their managers to leave damage off of reports. 

“It was a deliberate scheme to do this,” Mandell said. “And it wasn’t just with one carrier doing this. This was six carriers that we discovered were doing this in the state of Florida, they all got the memo.”

The directive, according to Mandell, was that insurance companies were increasingly unwilling to replace roofs, and would only repair them. Mandell said what he was being asked to do was illegal. 

“It’s illegal because when I go out to make a damage estimate, I have to put what the damage is, not what they want the damage to be,” he said. 

Mandell said he was fired after complaining to his bosses. Now he and five other whistleblowers, including Lee, are being represented by attorney Steve Bush, who himself worked as a public adjuster for more than a decade. They were all either fired or left their jobs because of the alterations made to their reports. 

“Most people will not stand up and fight”

Some insurance companies are hoping customers will roll over and just accept the money insurers offer them, Bush said. He said he believes some insurance companies are unwilling to fork over cash for a roof replacement unless a policyholder sues.

“Most people will not stand up and fight,” Bush said. “I cannot tell you how many people come to me and say, ‘hey, what was I gonna do? I had to replace my roof.'”

Florida’s insurance market has been a risky gamble for years. After a decade of costly storms, several national carriers exited Florida. Smaller, regional carriers have stepped in, but since 2021, at least nine insurance companies in Florida have collapsed and some of the remaining ones have altered damage reports, Bush said. He says he has evidence of carriers manipulating reports in six different states, with the policyholders none the wiser that they’re not getting the money they deserved. 

There’s almost no transparency in the claims process, according to Doug Quinn, executive director of the American Policyholders Association, an advocacy group he started after his home was destroyed by Hurricane Sandy in 2012.

“The victims of insurer fraud are the last people to find out that they were victims of insurer fraud,” Quinn said.

Calling for change, waiting on repairs

Bush turned over what he says is evidence of insurer fraud to state investigators and Florida opened a criminal investigation. But two years after the storm, Florida has made no arrests. 

“If you really want to see change in the industry, put somebody in handcuffs,” Bush said. 

According to Quinn, insurance cases are investigated and prosecuted quickly and aggressively when it’s a policyholder or public adjuster trying to cheat the insurance industry. 

“All we are asking is that cases that are alleged to be perpetrated by the insurance carriers or the vendors that they hire are just as aggressively investigated and prosecuted when fraud is found,” Quinn said. 

Doug Quinn
Doug Quinn

60 Minutes


Quinn said it’s difficult to know how many policyholders may have been given less money than they were owed. 

But two years after Hurricane Ian, every unrepaired home and tarp tells a story. 

At the Rapkins’ home, mold and mother nature are gnawing away at what’s left. The home’s split roof is an open wound for the family, who still have to mow the lawn and make mortgage payments on their rotting home every month. They’re also paying rent on an apartment nearby and $4,000 a year to Heritage for home insurance, even after the premiums went up.

“And can’t get another insurance company, obviously,” Rapkin said.

Rapkin originally believed there may have been an innocent mistake made, but he no longer feels that way.

“This is a con. That’s what this is,” he said. “This is, ‘make them go away at all costs. We’re not paying.'”

Heritage responds

In a statement to 60 Minutes, Heritage said it couldn’t comment on specific policyholders but aims to “pay every eligible claim” and had no intention to deceive. The company says, in its own random sample, about 42% of damage reports were revised downward and 26% were revised upward

Heritage says that since hurricane Ian, it has made “many reforms,” including updating its claims processing software, which it blames for not including the names of desk adjusters who altered reports. 



Read the original article

Leave your vote

Continue Reading

Copyright © 2024 Breaking MN

Log In

Forgot password?

Forgot password?

Enter your account data and we will send you a link to reset your password.

Your password reset link appears to be invalid or expired.

Log in

Privacy Policy

Add to Collection

No Collections

Here you'll find all collections you've created before.