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CBS News poll analysis: Before Biden’s exit, Harris ran slightly ahead of him in hypothetical Trump matchup

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Just before President Biden stepped aside as the Democratic Party’s nominee, a CBS News poll tested a hypothetical match-up between GOP nominee and former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. 

Harris trailed Trump by three points in the vote preferences of likely voters, including leaners (those who didn’t pick them first but leaned toward one of them) — that’s slightly narrower than the five-point margin by which Mr. Biden trailed the former president. 

Hypotheticals are not real life, of course, and these numbers may shift as Harris garners more attention as the potential Democratic nominee. She has an opportunity to differentiate herself from the president as a candidate, and at the same time, she is likely to come under more intense scrutiny and criticism. Both mean that voters’ preferences might change as we move from the realm of the hypothetical into this new phase of the campaign. With that caveat, here’s a closer look at how Harris performed in a national match-up against Trump last week. 

The Democratic base

CBS News‘ polling of the 2024 race suggests that Mr. Biden struggled with key parts of his 2020 coalition, including voters of color and younger voters less than enthusiastic about his candidacy. One of the reasons he trailed Trump fairly consistently was losing ground among these groups, relative to his 2020 support levels.

While Harris ran better than Mr. Biden among younger voters and voters of color, the differences were marginal — typically just a few percentage points. As with Mr. Biden, Harris’ support levels among Black voters, Hispanic voters, and women voters were lower than his 2020 performance with these groups.

Moreover, younger voters have been much less likely than older voters to say they’ll definitely vote this year. The story has been similar with Black voters relative to White voters. If Harris becomes the nominee, she would likely need to boost her support level or turnout (or both) among these important segments of the Democratic base.

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Other voter groups

Biden won independents nationally in 2020, but Harris trailed Trump among them in our last poll (Biden did too).

In more recent elections, Democrats have made inroads with groups like White voters with college degrees. Harris had an edge over Trump with this group that was similar to Biden’s edge in 2020. 

And while groups like men and seniors tend to vote Republican, Trump’s lead over Harris with these groups is wider than his 2020 margin, so Harris might look to make some inroads here. 

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What about the job Harris has done as Vice President? 

Harris’ approval has largely tracked with President Biden’s, hovering around 40%, perhaps an indication that they were viewed as a “ticket” in many ways.

Earlier this month, 42% of registered voters nationwide approved of the job she was doing as vice president.

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This analysis is based on two CBS News/YouGov surveys conducted with representative samples of registered voters nationwide. The first includes 2,826 registered voters interviewed between June 28-July 2, 2024, and the second includes 2,247 registered voters interviewed between July 16-18, 2024. Both samples were weighted by gender, age, race, and education, based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as past vote.

Toplines, 6/28-7/2

Toplines 7/16-7/18



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Israel airstrikes rock parts of Lebanon as Hezbollah launch rockets at air base near Haifa

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The escalating fighting between Israel and Hezbollah continued Saturday as both sides traded strikes as the war in Gaza nears one year.

The Israel Defense Forces said its air force struck Hezbollah fighters inside a mosque in southern Lebanon that they said was used as a command center to “plan and execute terrorist attacks against IDF troops and the State of Israel.”

The mosque was adjacent to Salah Ghandour Hospital in the town of Bint Jbeil. The hospital said in a statement that Israeli forces had shelled it after being warned to evacuate. The shelling “resulted in nine members of the medical and nursing staff being injured, most of them seriously,” while most of the medical staff were evacuated. On Thursday, the World Health Organization said 28 health workers in Lebanon had been killed in the past 24 hours.

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A man photographs the rubble of a building leveled by an Israeli airstrike that targeted Beirut’s southern suburbs.

ANWAR AMRO/AFP via Getty Images


At the same time, 12 Israeli airstrikes hit Beirut’s southern suburbs, including one that badly damaged a large hall Hezbollah used to hold ceremonies, Lebanon’s state news agency said.

Later in the day, more strikes hit the area, from which tens of thousands of people have fled over the past two weeks.

Israeli airstrikes also hit areas in southern and eastern Lebanon, according to state media. At least six people were killed, according to NNA.

Meanwhile, Hezbollah said it launched a series of rockets at an Israeli air base near Haifa, about 30 miles from the Lebanese border. Israeli police said fragments of interceptors fell in several sites but no injuries were reported, according to the Associated Press.

Israel has sharply expanded its strikes on Lebanon in recent weeks after nearly a year of exchanging fire with the Iran-backed Hezbollah — long designated a terrorist organization by the U.S., Israel and many other nations. The IDF has been carrying out nightly bombardment of Beirut’s once densely populated southern suburbs, a stronghold of Hezbollah. Overnight, a military spokesman issued three alerts for residents there to evacuate.

Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon continue
A view of the completely destroyed residential buildings after the Israeli army carried out airstrikes on the Dahiyeh area south of the Lebanese capital Beirut.

Houssam Shbaro/Anadolu via Getty Images


Nearly a week of Israeli ground operations in southern Lebanon, near Israel’s northern border, and two weeks of airstrikes in that region and in southern Beirut — both Hezbollah strongholds — had killed more than 2,000 people, the health ministry said. More than 1 million people have been driven from their homes, including tens of thousands under Israel evacuation orders in almost 100 towns and villages near the border.

Hezbollah started launching those attacks in support of its ideological ally Hamas, which is also backed by Iran, the day after Hamas sparked the ongoing war in Gaza with its Oct. 7, 2023 terrorist attack on Israel. The IDF says Hezbollah militants have fired over 10,000 rockets across the border since Oct. 8, 2023. The vast majority of them have been intercepted by Israel’s advanced missile defense systems.

Israel conducts more ground raids

The Israeli military said on Saturday its special forces were carrying out ground raids against Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon, destroying missiles, launchpads, watchtowers and weapons storage facilities. The military said troops also dismantled tunnel shafts that Hezbollah used to approach the Israeli border.

Some 1.2 million people have been driven from their homes since Israel escalated its strikes in late September aiming to cripple Hezbollah and push it away from the countries’ shared border. On Tuesday, Israel launched what it calls a limited ground operation into southern Lebanon.

Nine Israeli troops have been killed in close fighting in the area in the past few days, which is saturated with arms and explosives, the military said.

Americans attempt to leave Lebanon

The U.S. government has warned Americans not to travel to Lebanon since mid-September and urged any citizens in the country to leave via commercial travel routes. As of Friday night, the U.S. State Department has assisted approximately 500 U.S. citizens, permanent residents and their families to leave Lebanon on flights organized by the agency.

Other nations are also working to evacuate their residents from Lebanon. Germany has evacuated 460 citizens on German military flights, while a Dutch military transport plane carried more than 100 citizens out of Lebanon. There were also citizens of Belgium, Finland and Ireland who were repatriated on that flight.

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A military aircraft, the Multi Role Tanker Transport Aircraft (MRTT), departs from Eindhoven Air Force Base for Beirut to evacuate Dutch people who want to leave Lebanon.

ROB ENGELAAR/ANP/AFP via Getty Images


“It’s great that these people are safely back in the Netherlands. These have been tense times for them,” Christiaan Rebergen, secretary-general of the foreign ministry, said after they landed Friday.

Fighting ongoing in Gaza

Palestinian medical officials say Israeli strikes in northern and central Gaza early Saturday have killed at least nine people, including two children.

One strike hit a group of people in the northern town of Beit Hanoun, killing at least five people, including two children, according to the Health Ministry’s Ambulance and Emergency service.

Another strike hit a house in the northern part of Nuseirat refugee camp, killing at least four people, the Awda hospital said. The strike also left a number of wounded people, it said.

The Israeli military did not have any immediate comment on the strikes but has long accused Hamas of operating from within civilian areas.

Earlier in the day, the Israeli military had warned residents in parts of central Gaza to evacuate, saying its forces would soon operate there in response to Palestinian militants.

The warnings cover areas along a strategic corridor in central Gaza, which was at the heart of obstacles to a ceasefire deal earlier this summer. The military warned Palestinians in areas of Nuseirat and Bureij refugee camps, located along the Netzarim corridor, to evacuate to an along Gaza’s shore called Muwasi, which the military has designated a humanitarian zone. It’s unclear how many Palestinians are currently living in the areas affected by the order, parts of which were evacuated previously.

Almost 42,000 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza during the almost year-long war, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry, which does not differentiate between civilian and militant deaths.



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1-month-old twins who died with mother believed to be the youngest-known Hurricane Helene victims

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Month-old twin boys are believed to be the youngest known victims of Hurricane Helene. The boys died alongside their mother last week when a large tree fell through the roof of their home in Thomson, Georgia.

Obie Williams, grandfather of the twins, said he could hear babies crying and branches battering the windows when he spoke with his daughter, Kobe Williams, 27, on the phone last week as the storm tore through Georgia.

The single mother had been sitting in bed holding sons Khyzier and Khazmir and chatting on the phone with various family members while the storm raged outside.

Hurricane Helene-Georgia Deaths
This undated photo combo shows from left, Kobe Williams, and her twin sons Khazmir Williams and Khyzier Williams who were killed in their home in Thomson, Ga., by a falling tree during Hurricane Helene on Monday, Sept. 30, 2024. (Obie Lee Williams via AP)

AP


Kobe’s mother, Mary Jones, was staying with her daughter, helping her take care of the babies. She was on the other side of the trailer home when she heard a loud crash as a tree fell through the roof of her daughter’s bedroom.

“Kobe, Kobe, answer me, please,” Jones cried out in desperation, but she received no response.

Kobe and the twins were found dead.

“I’d seen pictures when they were born and pictures every day since, but I hadn’t made it out there yet to meet them,” Obie Williams told The Associated Press days after the storm ravaged eastern Georgia. “Now I’ll never get to meet my grandsons. It’s devastating.”

The babies, born Aug. 20, are the youngest known victims of a storm that had claimed more than 200 lives across Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Virginia and the Carolinas. Among the other young victims are a 7-year-old girl and a 4-year-old boy from about 50 miles (80 kilometers) south in Washington County, Georgia.

“She was so excited to be a mother of those beautiful twin boys,” said Chiquita Jones-Hampton, Kobe’ Jones’ niece. “She was doing such a good job and was so proud to be their mom.”

Jones-Hampton, who considered Kobe a sister, said the family is in shock and heartbroken.

In Obie Williams’ home city of Augusta, 30 miles east of his daughter’s home in Thomson, power lines stretched along the sidewalks, tree branches blocked the roads and utility poles lay cracked and broken. The debris left him trapped in his neighborhood near the South Carolina border for a little over a day after the storm barreled through.

He said one of his sons dodged fallen trees and downed power lines to check on Kobe, and he could barely bear to tell his father what he found.

Many of his 14 other children are still without power in their homes across Georgia. Some have sought refuge in Atlanta, and others have traveled to Augusta to see their father and mourn together, he said.

He described his daughter as a lovable, social and strong woman. She always had a smile and loved to make people laugh, he said.

And she loved to dance, Jones-Hampton said.

“That was my baby,” Williams said. “And everybody loved her.”



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Telecom providers operate emergency communications after Hurricane Helene

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Telecom providers operate emergency communications after Hurricane Helene – CBS News


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When critical infrastructure like utility lines and cell phone towers go down, emergency response teams from telecom providers like AT&T and Verizon step in with an arsenal of equipment ensuring first responders can communicate in a disaster zone. Here’s how that’s helping in the aftermath of Hurricane Helene.

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