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CBS News 2024 presidential election analysis: How many voters are persuadable?
With a close contest between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, including very tight battleground races, just how much room is there for movement before the election? Campaign ads and voter contact efforts aim to reach voters who might be persuaded to change their minds in the coming weeks. So, just how many persuadable voters are out there?
While the precise number depends on the exact definition of “persuadable,” it’s a small sliver of the electorate any way you look at it. That’s because partisan loyalty has been high in recent years. Routinely, over 90% of Democrats and Republicans vote for their party’s nominee. And few voters change which party they support from election to election. For example, according to exit polling, only 4% of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 voters switched to Trump in 2020, and the percentage of Trump 2016 voters crossing over to Joe Biden in 2020 was also in the single digits.
Relatedly, we don’t find many voters who say they’re unsure of their vote choice, even several months before Election Day. Nor are there many backing candidates who say they would even consider someone else.
That said, even a tiny group can be decisive. The last two presidential elections were decided by fewer than five percentage points nationally, and more importantly, by mere fractions of a point in the pivotal states. That makes the small group of potentially persuadable voters worth analyzing. Let’s put some more precise numbers on this group.
Under narrow definition, who might flip between Harris and Trump?
One sensible definition of a “persuadable” voter is someone who’s open to switching their vote. Nationally, 7% of Harris voters say they at least might consider Trump. And 8% of Trump voters say so of Harris. (Most say “Maybe, there’s still time,” as opposed to an outright “Yes, I would.”)
Putting these groups together, just 7% of all likely voters are persuadable — or “flippable” — under this definition. That doesn’t mean they will flip, but they at least signal an openness to it.
While we don’t know who will flip when they cast an ballot, we can use survey data to get a sense of who’s been oscillating between candidates this summer. We have surveyed about a thousand voters at least twice since Mr. Biden dropped out, typically more than 10 days apart. Only 2% of them switched from Harris to Trump or vice versa between interviews.
A broader definition: Who’s unsure or only leaning toward a candidate?
A somewhat broader definition would also include voters who are not sure of their vote initially or only are leaning toward Harris or Trump. That’s because even if they haven’t flipped so far, they are less firm than voters who pick one of these candidates outright. (Voters who said they were initially unsure or voting third party were then asked whether they lean toward Harris or Trump.)
Under this definition, 12% are persuadable — that’s about 1 in 8 likely voters nationwide. This measure is down slightly from July, when Biden was still in the race. And it’s a bit lower than the number in competitive states when Mr. Biden and Trump ran four years ago. The 1-in-8 figure also applies in the battlegrounds — the most competitive states that will see the most campaign activity trying to convince voters this fall.
What do persuadable voters look like?
Persuadable voters, by either definition, are younger and more racially diverse. They tend to identify as politically independent, and they’re somewhat likelier than other voters to use social media platforms like Instagram and TikTok for news.
And importantly, pocketbook concerns may be more salient for them. They are more likely than firmly decided voters to say their vote will mostly be about their personal financial situation, as opposed to their rights and freedoms.
They also aren’t as likely to have turned out in recent elections or say they will be voting this year. That means part of the challenge for campaigns is getting these voters to turn out, which often goes hand in hand with persuasion.
At the moment, they are roughly even on leaned vote, but Harris may have more room to grow: 7 in 10 say they might consider her if they aren’t already, while only half say so of Trump. And while the vast majority say they know what Trump stands for, only half say so about Harris.
Harris’ advantage with this group also represents an improvement from July. Just before Mr. Biden dropped out, most persuadable voters said they would not consider him if they weren’t already.
In fact, some Democratic leaning voters who were undecided last month when Mr. Biden was the presumptive nominee have already shifted to Harris. She is enjoying a higher “floor” of support than Mr. Biden did, with more Democratic voters now locked into their decision. Part of the reason there’s been a decrease in the number of persuadable voters since a month ago is that Biden 2020 voters, including many independents, are more firmly behind Harris than they were Mr. Biden.
This analysis is primarily based on a CBS News/YouGov survey of 3,258 registered voters nationwide fielded August 14-16, 2024. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, as well as past vote. The margin of error for registered voters is ±2.1 points. Battleground states are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Toplines:
Legislation to expand Social Security benefits to millions of Americans passed the U.S. Senate early Saturday and is now headed to the desk of President Joe Biden, who is expected to sign the measure into law.
Senators voted 76-20 for the Social Security Fairness Act, which would eliminate two federal policies that prevent nearly 3 million people, including police officers, firefighters, postal workers, teachers and others with a public pension, from collecting their full Social Security benefits. The legislation has been decades in the making, as the Senate held its first hearings into the policies in 2003.
“The Senate finally corrects a 50-year mistake,” proclaimed Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, a Democrat from New York, after senators approved the legislation at 12:15 a.m. Saturday.
The bill’s passage is “a monumental victory for millions of public service workers who have been denied the full benefits they’ve rightfully earned,” said Shannon Benton, executive director for the Senior Citizens League, which advocates for retirees and which has long pushed for the expansion of Social Security benefits. “This legislation finally restores fairness to the system and ensures the hard work of teachers, first responders and countless public employees is truly recognized.”
The vote came down to the wire, as the Senate looked to wrap up its current session. Senators rejected four amendments and a budgetary point of order late Friday night that would have derailed the measure, given the small window of time left to pass it.
Vice President-elect JD Vance of Ohio was among the 24 Republican senators to join 49 Democrats to advance the measure in an initial procedural vote that took place Wednesday.
“Social Security is a bedrock of our middle class. You pay into it for 40 quarters, you earned it, it should be there when you retire,” Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat who lost his seat in the November election, told the chamber ahead of Wednesday’s vote. “All these workers are asking for is for what they earned.”
What is the Social Security Fairness Act?
The Social Security Fairness Act would repeal two federal policies — the Windfall Elimination Provision (WEP) and the Government Pension Offset (GPO) — that reduce Social Security payments to nearly 3 million retirees.
That includes those who also collect pensions from state and federal jobs that aren’t covered by Social Security, including teachers, police officers and U.S. postal workers. The bill would also end a second provision that reduces Social Security benefits for those workers’ surviving spouses and family members. The WEP impacts about 2 million Social Security beneficiaries and the GPO nearly 800,000 retirees.
The measure, which passed the House in November, had 62 cosponsors when it was introduced in the Senate last year. Yet the bill’s bipartisan support eroded in recent days, with some Republican lawmakers voicing doubts due to its cost. According to the Congressional Budget Office, the proposed legislation would add a projected $195 billion to federal deficits over a decade.
Without Senate approval, the bill’s fate would have ended with the current session of Congress and would have needed to be re-introduced in the next Congress.
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Saturday is the winter solstice and 2024’s shortest day. Here’s what to know about the official start of winter.
The 2024 winter solstice, the shortest day of the year, happens on Saturday, Dec. 21, in the Northern Hemisphere. The celestial event signifies the first day of winter, astronomically.
What is the winter solstice?
The winter solstice is the day each year that has the shortest period of daylight between sunrise and sunset, and therefore the longest night. It happens when the sun is directly above the Tropic of Capricorn, a line of latitude that circles the globe south of the equator, the National Weather Service explains.
The farther north you are, the shorter the day will be, and in the Arctic Circle, the sun won’t rise at all.
How is the day of the winter solstice determined?
The winter solstice occurs because of the Earth’s tilt as it rotates around the sun.
When the Northern Hemisphere tilts away from the sun, the nights last longer. The longest night happens on the solstice because the hemisphere is in its furthest position from the sun. That occurs each year on Dec. 21 or 22.
This year, it falls on Dec. 21 at 4:21 a.m ET, to be precise.
On the summer solstice, when the northern tilt is closest to the sun, we have the longest day, usually June 20 or 21.
National Weather Service
The solstices are not always exactly on the 21st every year because the earth’s rotation around the sun is 365.25 days, instead of 365 even.
Will days start getting longer after the winter solstice?
Yes. Each day after the solstice, we get one minute more of sunlight. It doesn’t sound like much, but after just two months, or around 60 days, we’ll be seeing about an hour more of sunlight.
When will winter officially be over in 2025?
The meteorological winter ends on March 20, 2025. Then, spring will last until June 20, when the summer solstice arrives.
How is the winter solstice celebrated around the world?
Nations and cultures around the world have celebrated the solstice since ancient times with varying rituals and traditions. The influence of those solstice traditions can still be seen in our celebrations of holidays like Christmas and Hanukkah, Britannica notes.
The ancient Roman Saturnalia festival celebrated the end of the planting season and has close ties with modern-day Christmas. It honored Saturn, the god of harvest and farming. The multiple-day affair had lots of food, games and celebrations. Presents were given to children and the poor, and slaves were allowed to stop working.
Gatherings are held every year at Stonehenge, a monumental circle of massive stones in England that dates back about 5,000 years. The origins of Stonehenge are shrouded in mystery, but it was built to align with the sun on solstice days.
Andrew Matthews/PA Images via Getty Images
The Hopi, a Native American tribe in the northern Arizona area, celebrate the winter solstice with dancing, purification and sometimes gift-giving. A sacred ritual known as the Soyal Ceremony marks the annual milestone.
In Peru, people honor the return of the sun god on the winter solstice. The ancient tradition would be to hold sacrificial ceremonies, but today, people hold mock sacrifices to celebrate. Because Peru is in the Southern Hemisphere, their winter solstice happens in June, when the Northern Hemisphere is marking its summer solstice.
Scandinavia celebrates St. Lucia’s Day, a festival of lights.
The “arrival of winter,” or Dong Zhi, is a Chinese festival where family gathers to celebrate the year so far. Traditional foods include tang yuan, sweet rice balls with a black sesame filling. It’s believed to have its origins in post-harvest celebrations.
Researchers stationed in in Antarctica even have their own traditions, which may include an icy plunge into the polar waters. They celebrate “midwinter” with festive meals, movies and sometimes homemade gifts.