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What’s the mortgage interest rate forecast for September 2024?
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Buyers have faced unprecedented challenges in the real estate market since the start of COVID-19. Record low interest rates and low housing supply during the pandemic pushed home prices to record highs, leaving many borrowers facing bidding wars. In the post-pandemic era, surging inflation caused would-be buyers to take another hit, as mortgage rates skyrocketed to their highest level since the year 2000.
Inventory remains low today and mortgage rates remain high, but frustrated buyers may soon see a light at the end of the tunnel. “All indications are the Fed will reduce short-term rates in September, said Fred Bolstad, Head of Retail Home Lending at U.S. Bank.
Many future homeowners are looking toward this important date as the opportunity they’ve been waiting for to access an affordable mortgage. Unfortunately, even if the promised rate cut occurs, some buyers may end up disappointed. Here’s why.
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What’s the mortgage interest rate forecast for September 2024?
While all signs point to the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September, there’s a harsh reality future buyers must come to terms with.
“It is important to keep in mind that the market has already baked in the September rate cuts,” says Sarah Alvarez, vice president of mortgage banking at William Ravies Mortgage.
Ralph DiBugnara, founder of Home Qualified, concurs.
“I do believe in anticipation of this cut, most of the reduction has been built into the market already over the last few weeks,” DiBugnara says.
The rate cut won’t come as a surprise to lenders, which is why rates are already down more than a point since their peak in the fall of 2023. Since lenders have priced in the rate drop, there’s no reason to believe the cost of a home loan is likely to decline sharply if the Fed acts as anticipated.
The Fed’s actions could, however, set the stage for continued mortgage rate drops throughout the fall and into 2025 if the central bank signals it will start to get aggressive at bringing rates back down after repeated increases to fight inflation.
“Everyone will be paying attention to how much they are reduced and what Fed talk indicates about the speed of future rate cuts,” Alvarez says.
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The Federal Reserve’s move isn’t the only factor that could affect mortgage rates
For some borrowers, a smaller-than-anticipated mortgage rate drop could come as a surprise because they don’t fully understand the relationship between the Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate and the mortgage market.
“Mortgage rates are not directly tied to the Fed fund rate,” Alvarez says.
When the Fed lowers rates, that reduces the overnight rate at which banks can borrow from each other. While banks often respond to cheaper credit by lowering the cost of consumer debt like mortgages, the Fed’s decisions are not the only things that impact the mortgage market.
“The 10-year treasury rate is another important data point,” Bolstad says. “In early August, we experienced a drop in the 10-year treasury rate. This led to a drop in mortgage rates, providing a glimpse of what actions investors could take and how it may lead to a spike in activity as rates move lower.”
The 10-year treasury rate impacts mortgage costs because mortgage-backed securities compete with treasury bonds for investor dollars.
Other economic indicators may also have an effect.
“We are seeing unemployment increase and inflation settle, which should signal further reduction over the next couple of months,” DiBugnara says.
Finally, economic and political instability may impact mortgage rates into September and beyond.
“We also have to be aware of the upcoming election. No matter what side you are on, the uncertainty of this time leads to a rocky period where we see rates jump all over the place until the results are final,” Alvarez says.
The bottom line
The bottom line is that those hoping for a low-cost mortgage or refinance loan may not find many new opportunities this month. With the September rate cut already baked in and unlikely to move the needle much, those sitting on the sidelines may need to decide whether to wait for rates to fall further or whether it’s best to move forward soon by exploring options already available today to get a mortgage with a rate under 7.00%.
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U.S. Air Force gives update on new B-21 stealth bomber: “Nobody on the planet can do what we’re doing”
Air Force leaders gave an update on the B-21 Raider, a futuristic aircraft that is expected to become the United States’ next nuclear stealth bomber.
The aircraft can deliver both “conventional and nuclear munitions,” according to a news release from the Air Force, but will be “critical to deterring conflict” around the world. Gen. Thomas Bussiere, commander of the Air Force Global Strike Command, said the stealth bomber will help the United States keep pace with threats worldwide.
“We are the free world’s only bomber force. … Nobody on the planet can do what we’re doing right now,” Bussiere said, adding that there will likely be an increased demand for the support the stealth bomber can provide in the coming years.
Air Force Global Strike Command
Currently, the stealth bomber remains in the test flight stage, and is doing two such flights a week, according to Thomas Jones, the Northrop Grumman Aeronautics Systems sector president. A photo shared by the Air Force shows one of the bombers during flight testing.
“We’re really starting to strike up quite a cadence … when we started this journey, we made a vow that we were going to design this system to be a daily flyer,” Jones said, according to the release. “It’s been a phenomenal year of progress, and we hope to continue that through the next year.”
A recent notable test confirmed the stealth bomber’s structural design and integrity, according to officials. The plane is now going through a fatigue testing campaign.
Once the planes are tested, some of the aircraft will be delivered to the Ellsworth Air Force Base in South Dakota to help train Air Force squadrons on the stealth bomber. When the B-21 enters the service, this site will be the main operating base for the stealth bomber.
Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri will be a secondary base, and Dyess Air Force Base in Texas a third.
The stealth bomber is set to replace the B-1 Lancer and B-2 Spirit bombers in the Air Force’s fleet.
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Whether you’re barreling down a mountainside or taking a leisurely ride along your local trail, a great mountain bike is key. But what exactly does a great mountain bike look like, in terms of features? It depends on the kind of terrain and riding style you do.
The best mountain bike for long, cross-country rides will have very different specs than a downhill bike. Some offer full suspension for a smooth ride on bumpy trails. Some have wider tires that are better at gripping wet or sandy terrain. Some are designed for maximum pedaling efficiency and serious stopping power so you can climb steep mountainsides without wearing yourself out. No matter where you and your new bike are headed this fall, we’ve rounded up the best mountain bikes for every rider and every terrain in 2024. Don’t forget to strap on your bike helmet.
Best mountain bike for beginners: Giant Talon 29 1
Mike’s Bikes
The Giant Talon 29 1 is a solid entry-level mountain bike at a reasonable price point. With its balanced frame geometry and high-traction tires, it’s great for a comfortable, stable ride on most trails. While that means it’s not specialized for uphill climbs or cross-country speed, the balanced design is great for beginners or casual riders who aren’t planning to tackle those more challenging technical trails just yet.
With 80mm to 100mm of suspension travel, this hardtail mountain bike strikes that perfect balance of pedaling efficiency and shock absorption.
Riders can also adjust the suspension within that range by adjusting the air spring and the rebound damping. That gives you improved steering precision and a better ride feel since you can tailor it to your needs. If you’re a beginner, it may take some trial and error to fine-tune those settings, but playing around with them is a great way to learn how suspension impacts your ride.
Get this reliable entry-level mountain bike at Mike’s Bikes for $950.
Top features of the Giant Talon 29 1:
- Grippy tires offer great traction in any trail conditions.
- The balanced frame geometry makes this a comfortable bike for most riders.
- The adjustable suspension fork allows you to fine-tune this mountain bike for your needs.
Best trail bike: Santa Cruz Tallboy C R
Backcountry
A full-suspension mountain bike with 120mm and 130mm suspension travel on the rear and front, respectively, it doesn’t get cushier than the Santa Cruz Tallboy C R (at least, not at this price point). Built for cross-country or trail riding, this bike’s design allows you to glide through rocky terrain almost as if you were just cruising on a paved road. That suspension also helps cushion the impact on pops and short drops so you can build up speed while navigating the trail with confidence.
With that said, it can be a little sluggish on uphill climbs. But if you typically stick to more straightforward trails, you won’t have to deal with that issue. For those just-for-fun weekend trail rides, this is the mountain bike you want.
Get this comfortable, agile trail bike at Backcountry while it’s on sale for $3,849 (reduced from $4,799).
Top features of the Santa Cruz Tallboy C R:
- Boasting full suspension, this mountain bike is a comfy ride no matter how bumpy the terrain.
- The carbon C frame is both lightweight and stiff for better control and improved agility.
- The four-piston brakes offer excellent stopping power.
Best fat tire mountain bike: State 6061 Trail+
State Bicycle Co.
For wet or sandy trails, traction is everything, which means you need a fat tire bike like the State 6061 Trail+. With 4.5-inch wide tires that can handle running even at low PSI, this mountain bike can grip the trail no matter how loose or slippery.
Whether you want to cruise along sandy beaches or power through snowy mountain trails, the stability of this fat tire bike is the key to doing so safely and confidently. You won’t be building up much speed, but you’ll have a lot of fun plowing through trails that a standard trail bike couldn’t even touch.
Get this fat tire bike directly from State Bicycle Co. for $1,000.
Top features of the State 6061 Trail+:
- Thick 4.5-inch tires provide extra grip for wet or loose terrain like snow, sand and mud.
- With low PSI capabilities, you can lower the tire pressure to widen the surface area even further to maximize your grip on soft, slippery trails.
- The alloy frame is stiff and strong without adding any more bulk than necessary.
Best mountain bike under $500: Huffy Stone Mountain
Amazon
The Huffy Stone Mountain is a hardtail mountain bike that is lightweight and offers good traction for navigating trails. The budget-friendly bike is missing a lot of the features you’ll find on the more advanced mountain bikes listed above. However, if you’re just starting out and just want to get out on a trail to see if you like mountain biking, this is a good bike to start with.
While you can’t take it on any serious trails, it’s got the basics you need for easy local bike trails. Use it to get a feel for the sport and then upgrade to a mountain bike better suited to the kind of trails you want to tackle. Then, pass this Huffy Stone Mountain on to a friend or teen who’s curious about mountain biking.
A bestseller on Amazon, this budget mountain bike is available for as low as $200.
Top features of the Huffy Stone Mountain:
- This budget entry-level bike is great for casual rides on easy bike trails.
- A wide variety of frame and wheel sizes allows you to get the right fit for your height.
- The lightweight, high-traction design is just enough to let you get a feel for mountain biking before committing to a higher-priced mountain bike with more advanced features and customizability.
Shop more top-rated mountain bikes:
What type of mountain bike should a beginner get?
The best mountain bike for a beginner is a balanced, versatile one. Since you’re probably not tackling steep inclines and declines yet, opt for a trail bike that offers great traction, strong brakes and easy maneuverability along bumpy, muddy trails. That means grippy tires and responsive steering so you can confidently control your bike over tree roots, up hills and on descents.
If the trails you’re eager to go on are largely uphill, look for a bike that’s lightweight with a firmer pedaling platform. Those two features will improve climb efficiency so you’re not wearing yourself out on those uphill stretches.
Do I need a full-suspension mountain bike?
You don’t need a full-suspension mountain bike, but they are nice to have. Unlike hardtail mountain bikes, which only have suspension in the front, full-suspension mountain bikes have suspension in both the front and rear. That extra suspension helps absorb shock, cushioning the impact as you hop over bumps or navigate downhill jumps and drops.
That cushier feel can be nice even on milder trail rides, but they tend to be significantly more expensive and require more maintenance than a hardtail mountain bike. So it might not be worth the extra expense and care if you don’t usually do technical trails or downhill riding.
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