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What impact will the Federal Reserve’s rate cut have on stocks?
U.S. stocks leapt to record heights Wednesday before moderating their gains as the Federal Reserve delivered an interest rate cut on the bigger side of expectations, reducing its benchmark rate by 50 basis points.
Little changed in trading Wednesday ahead of the central bank’s action at 2 p.m. Eastern time, in the wake of which equities surged, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumping more than 200 points to a new record before dialing back on its gains, up 154 points, or 0.4% as of 3 p.m.
The decision by the Federal Reserve’s policy-setting committee to cut interest rates for the first time since 2020 was prefaced by an unusual amount of market uncertainty as to how much the Fed would lower its benchmark rate from a two-decade high of 5.25% to 5.5%, where it has stood since July 2023.
Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth Management, said the Fed’s messaging is more important than the exact size of its cut, as the central bank embarks on what is likely to be a series of reductions through this year and next. “Whether it’s a quarter or half a point, it’s much more about where they are going and when are they going to stop,” Hogan told CBS MoneyWatch.
Short-term impacts aside, the Fed’s move is largely seen as positive for the economy as well as for the broad stock market.
“We anticipate that these Fed cuts should have a positive effect on the economy and markets in 2025. We believe the global economy is likely to benefit as well, as major central banks around the world have already cut rates or are on the verge of doing so,” Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo, said in a note.
“Market environments with declining rates and rising profits tend to be supportive of equity prices,” according to John Lynch, chief investment officer for Comerica Wealth Management. “A few cuts are welcome, more cuts would be troublesome,” Lynch said.
Expectations of Fed rate cuts have had investors shifting gears and gravitating toward public companies that are interest-rate sensitive, including dividend stocks, telecoms, consumer staples, utilities and real estate investment trusts, Hogan offered.
Public companies with smaller market capitalization are likely to draw more interest in an environment with falling interest rates and steady economic growth, according to Hogan, who pointed out that the segment is well-priced, given its relative underperformance.
“You’ve got the ingredients for a rally in small caps,” said Hogan.
Bringing down interest rates should drive some much-needed inventory out of existing home sales and fuel economic activity.
Reductions in short-term interest rates should be a boon for dividend-paying stocks, particularly in the financial sector, as lower rates reduce the cost of funding for banks. Other beneficiaries include public companies that would benefit from cheaper debt financing and lower interest rates.
Real estate stocks are also likely to benefit as lower rates reduce borrowing costs for buyers.
The Fed’s rate cut and messaging is directing Wall Street’s concerns toward jobs and away from higher costs. “We are less concerned about inflation and more concerned about a soft landing in the labor market,” said Hogan.
At “Evryman,” a weekend getaway in the Berkshires of Massachusetts, around 50 men gather to open up about struggles that men often bury — like loneliness.
“We can just be raw and real with each other,” said John, a participant from Connecticut.
Last year, U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Vivek Murthy declared loneliness a national health epidemic, saying it poses risks as deadly as smoking. About half of U.S. adults say they’ve experienced loneliness, Murthy said in an 81-page report from his office.
The effects on men can be especially difficult to address due to gender-based stigma, Evryman co-founder Lucas Krump said.
“As men, we’ve traditionally been put in a box and given a very small range to express our emotions. There are a lot of men walking around, not necessarily overtly a loner, but feeling very lonely,” Krump said.
Roughly one in seven men say they have no close friends, according to data from the Survey Center on American Life.
Krump’s organization hopes to combat that crisis of connection by giving participants a safe space to share whatever they’re feeling.
“What men are really looking for is to belong. They want to be part of something,” Krump said.
For example, participants may open up about problems in their relationships and be surprised to find out that others are experiencing similar issues.
“There’s something about letting our guard down and having fun with the other guys. It’s hard to replace,” another participant said.
CBS News
Social Security Fairness Act could restore benefits for millions, but policies still cause hardship
At 84 years old, Evelyn Paternostro spends her days working part time as a cashier at Dollar Tree. For decades, she dedicated her life to education, serving as a teacher and principal in Louisiana. But despite years of her public service, she now struggles to make ends meet.
“People at the store ask me all the time, ‘Are you doing this for fun? Why aren’t you retired?'” she said. “Because I need to eat.”
After her husband died, Paternostro discovered she couldn’t collect his Social Security benefits due to a pair of federal policies called the Windfall Elimination Provision and the Government Pension Offset.
These provisions reduce or eliminate Social Security benefits for millions of Americans if they receive a public pension that didn’t withhold Social Security tax. Retired teachers, firefighters and other public servants are some of the most impacted.
“I was really blindsided,” she said. “I knew I was going to have a teacher’s retirement. I was going to be part of the Louisiana Teachers Retirement System. And I never really thought about my husband’s income and what that would mean to me.”
Kati Weis / CBS News
Who is affected?
Nearly 2.8 million individuals across the United States are impacted by WEP and GPO. Its effects extend to all employees of state, county, municipal and special districts in 26 states. Teachers in 13 of those states, including specific districts in Kentucky and Georgia, also feel its impact.
In Massachusetts and certain districts in Rhode Island, not all municipal employees, but only teachers are impacted.
The purpose of these two 1980s-era programs was “so that there was no way you could ‘double dip’ into both a federal pension and Social Security,” explains Jill Schlesinger, CBS News business analyst.
The Windfall Elimination Provision affects people who qualify for Social Security benefits through their job but also receive a pension from another job where they didn’t pay into Social Security.
It may decrease their Social Security payments by up to half the value of their pension.
For example, Michelle Cosgrove’s benefits were cut in half, reduced from $866 a month.
Cosgrove spent the first half of her career as a paralegal, contributing to Social Security, before staying home to raise her children.
Later, she became a public school teacher in the San Francisco Bay Area, paying into CalSTRS, California’s educator pension fund. However, her plans for retirement took an unexpected turn when she discovered the intricacies of the pension system.
When she retired, Cosgrove’s reduced payments affected her ability to pay bills and cover expenses.
The other program, the Government Pension Offset, further impacted Cosgrove after her husband, Mike, passed away in 2022. Despite working in the private sector for decades and contributing to Social Security, his benefits were largely inaccessible to her due to the GPO. Mike, a welding supervisor, was diagnosed with a rare cancer at 52 but continued working until his health worsened. He died at the age of 63.
If pension recipients are a widow or widower of someone who received Social Security benefits, that pension recipient may have reduced survivors benefits or may not receive benefits at all.
“If I’d have stayed home and done nothing, I’d have gotten all the money,” Cosgrove said. “Had I known this, I might not have gone into teaching. I’d have picked something different.”
The GPO mainly affects women, with 83% of those impacted by GPO being female, according data from the Congressional Research Service.
“When you see the numbers of the GPO elevated, it’s because many of those people were probably teachers and married to somebody who worked in a Social Security job,” said Joslyn DeLancey, vice president of the Connecticut Education Association. “They’re not going to get that spousal Social Security. … It’s such a messy and nuanced thing.”
Paternostro estimates she would have received $2,500 a month in Social Security benefits — about $300,000 over the last decade.
“That’s a lot of money,” she said. “That’s more money than I can imagine.”
But these policies brought a different kind of heartache for Dede Ruel, a retired school psychologist in Illinois.
She said she recently received a letter from Social Security informing her that she owed more than $13,000, reducing her Social Security checks by 21%.
According to a CBS News analysis of federal data, these policies are one of the most common reasons for Social Security overpayments, which have totaled more than $450 million in fiscal years 2017-2021.
“I have been trying to appeal it through their process and I’ve been denied at every level,” Ruel said.
Bipartisan support for the Social Security Fairness Act
The Social Security Fairness Act, one of the most bipartisan bills in Congress this session, aims to repeal WEP and GPO.
The House voted to pass the legislation Nov. 12. The Senate is expected to vote on the Social Security Fairness Act this week.
Social Security is projected to run out of funds in 2035 unless there is a change made to the fund’s cost and revenue system.
Even though supporters of the Social Security Fairness Act argue it will only drain the Social Security fund six months earlier than otherwise expected, some critics believe there are better solutions, suggesting states should restructure their retirement systems to address the root causes rather than rely on federal fixes.
“A lot of the critics say this is gonna cost a lot of money, almost $200 billion dollars over the next 10 years,” explains Schlesinger. “Critics say there is a reason why we force people to pay into the Social Security system. These are two separate systems. If we need to fix Social Security, let’s fix it. Let’s not just do a repeal which is essentially a Band-Aid.”
Rep. Garret Graves, a Republican from Louisiana who spearheaded the bill, said, “People should receive benefits based on what they paid into the system. That’s what the formula should largely be based upon. I understand the efforts back in the ’70s and ’80s, but the overcorrection has likely taken $600 to $700 billion in benefits from these folks.”
Devin Carroll, a financial planner, encounters many clients who are “completely taken by surprise.” Carroll often instructs his clients to use the Social Security Administration’s WEP calculator, a tool that calculates benefits with the impact of the WEP factored in.
Carroll explains that it can be challenging to figure out future Social Security benefits. The benefits formula includes “bend points,” which are adjusted annually based on wage inflation.
These adjustments are crucial because the actual amount of the WEP reduction is determined the year a person turns 62.
“You have to make some projections, some assumptions about forward-looking inflation, both price inflation and wage inflation,” Carroll explained. “Once you do, then you can start to work through that and use a calculator like the SSA has that will do a lot of that for you, and it will tell you what your WEP adjusted for retirement age benefit should be.”
Carroll also gets to see the impacts of these provisions firsthand. His daughter-in-law is a teacher in Texas and his son is a firefighter in Texas.
“In essence, this money has been stolen from all of us for all these years,” Paternostro said. “It’s not fair.”
contributed to this report.
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Men’s retreats offer participants a safe space to open up amid loneliness epidemic
Social Security Fairness Act could restore benefits for millions, but policies still cause hardship
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Men’s retreats offer participants a safe space to open up amid loneliness epidemic
Social Security Fairness Act could restore benefits for millions, but policies still cause hardship