CBS News
How far will mortgage interest rates fall this October?
Grace Cary/Getty Images
After waiting for more than two years for interest rates to be cut, homebuyers finally received some welcome news earlier this month when the Federal Reserve issued its first rate cut since 2020. Now at a range between 4.75% and 5%, the federal funds rate is far from the record lows it was at during the pandemic.
But a cut is a step in the right direction – and mortgage interest rates have responded accordingly, falling to their lowest point since September 2022. And with additional rate cuts starting to be priced in for when the Fed meets again in November and December, today’s mortgage interest rate on a 30-year loan could soon fall again.
Now hovering just over 6%, many prospective buyers may be wondering about the potential for that rate to fall even further (and by how much). While there are ways for buyers to secure a rate below 6% now, it could fall independently this October. But how far, exactly, will mortgage rates fall next month? That’s what we’ll break down below.
See how low of a mortgage interest rate you could lock in here now.
How far will mortgage interest rates fall in October?
It’s difficult, if not impossible, to predict how far mortgage interest rates will fall in October, but there are some factors to consider that can help narrow down the range. To start, there will be no Federal Reserve meeting in the month. So even though mortgage rates don’t fall precisely in tandem with the Fed, borrowers shouldn’t expect any major reductions without action there first.
That doesn’t mean, however, that rates can’t fall. They just may not fall much lower than they already have. That said, every basis point helps, particularly over a 15-year or 30-year mortgage loan. And other, non-Fed-related developments could cause mortgage rates to decline a bit further.
Unemployment numbers for September will be released on Friday, October 4. If those numbers are problematic, it could imply further, more dramatic intervention by the Fed via interest rate cuts. So mortgage lenders may start lowering their rates in anticipation. How much they lower them by, however, is hard to predict until those numbers are public.
The next inflation report will be released less than a week later on Thursday, October 10. If that shows yet another decline, as the most recent reports have, it could empower the Fed to continue cutting rates, perhaps by a significant margin. So keep an eye out on any developments on this day and in the days that follow.
And changes to items like the 10-year Treasury yield, which mortgage rates tend to follow, could also result in changes downward, albeit those are likely to be minimal.
In short, it’s almost impossible to predict how far mortgage interest rates may fall in October, particularly with no Fed meeting on the calendar. Instead, prospective homebuyers and owners looking to refinance should monitor the market daily for opportunities to capitalize as mortgage rates can – and will – change each weekday, particularly in today’s evolving rate climate.
If you’re ready to act now, however, consider doing so. As rates decline, there’s no guarantee that the real estate market will remain the same. Cooler rates could entice more buyers to enter the market, resulting in increased competition where there currently is none (or a limited amount). That rise in buyers could also entice sellers to raise their home prices, something which could easily negate any marginal rate drops borrowers expect to see in October. So carefully weigh these scenarios against future rate drops to best determine how to proceed.
Start exploring today’s mortgage rate options online here.
The bottom line
Homebuyers looking for dramatic rate drops in October or even in the months after should manage their expectations. It’s worth remembering that it took months for rates to rise as high as they did and it can take months – if not years – for them to fall back into a comfort zone for many buyers. Still, the likelihood of mortgage interest rates returning back to the 3% range is low, so it’s worth weighing the benefits of waiting versus the advantages of acting now.
Watch CBS News
Be the first to know
Get browser notifications for breaking news, live events, and exclusive reporting.
Federal prosecutors have secured criminal charges against multiple Iranian hackers for allegedly targeting members of former President Donald Trump’s presidential campaign as part of a malicious cyber scheme, multiple sources familiar with the investigation confirmed to CBS News.
The Iranian hackers were indicted by a grand jury on Thursday and the charges could be announced as early as Friday, the sources said. The nature of the allegations and the names of the defendants were unknown as charging documents remain under seal. The exact number of people charged was also not confirmed.
ABC News and Politico first reported on elements of the charges.
A Justice Department spokesperson declined to comment on CBS News’ reporting. A spokesperson for the Trump campaign also did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Once publicly announced, the charges will mark an escalation in the federal government’s work to combat Iran’s alleged efforts to interfere in the 2024 presidential election. Federal officials have warned Iran is seeking to undermine Trump’s campaign.
The FBI launched probes earlier this summer after both the Trump and then-Biden campaigns experienced attempted phishing schemes targeting people associated with the candidates, sources told CBS News in August.
Last week, federal officials with the FBI and other intelligence agencies released a statement confirming, “Iranian malicious cyber actors in late June and early July sent unsolicited emails to individuals then associated with President Biden’s campaign that contained an excerpt taken from stolen, non-public material from former President Trump’s campaign as text in the emails. There is currently no information indicating those recipients replied.”
The statement went on to say that “Iranian malicious cyber actors have continued their efforts since June to send stolen, non-public material associated with former President Trump’s campaign to U.S. media organizations…Foreign actors are increasing their election influence activities as we approach November.”
Iran’s United Nations mission previously denied it had plans to interfere or launch cyberattacks in the U.S. presidential election, telling CBS News in a statement last week that “the Islamic Republic of Iran does not engage in the internal uproars or electoral controversies of the United States,” adding that “Iran neither has any motive nor intent to interfere in the U.S. election; and, it therefore categorically repudiates such accusations.”
Trump’s campaign revealed last month that it had been hacked and said Iranian actors were involved in stealing and distributing sensitive internal documents to members of the press.
FBI agents worked with both Google and Microsoft — two major tech firms and providers of email services — to dig into the apparent spearphishing attacks targeting those close to both presidential campaigns, according to two people familiar with the probe. A report published by Microsoft earlier this summer revealed Iran is evolving its tactics to affect the upcoming election.
Trump and former members of his administration have been increased targets of Iranian actors following the killing of Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani in 2020. Some former officials received increased protection because of death threats, and in July, federal prosecutors filed charges against a Pakistani national with ties to Iran for allegedly planning to assassinate American politicians, including possibly Trump.
Iran is not the only foreign adversary that U.S. officials say is seeking to undermine the upcoming presidential election. Intelligence agencies have warned Russia and China have launched cyber campaigns of their own to sew chaos, with Russia allegedly seeking to damage Vice President Kamala Harris’ bid for the White House.
Speaking at an event hosted by the Atlantic Council on Thursday, Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco said, “We are seeing more threat actors, more threat actors getting into the game” of election interference, exacerbated by advancements in artificial intelligence.
The goal, according to Monaco, is to “sow discord, sow distrust in our election system and undermine confidence in our democratic process.”
and
contributed to this report.
Watch CBS News
Be the first to know
Get browser notifications for breaking news, live events, and exclusive reporting.