Donald Trump’s Trump Media & Technology Group had an eventful Election Day 2024, with its DJT stock halted three times after the shares suddenly plunged. At the end of the trading day, the Truth Social owner released its third-quarter earnings, showing a continued decline in revenue. 

The company’s third-quarter results, disclosed in a U.S. Securities & Exchange filing, shows that the fledgling social media business continues to lose money, while its revenue slipped 5.6% compared with a year earlier. Still, that marks an improvement from the prior quarter, when Trump Media’s sales tumbled 30%. 

Donald Trump’s stake in DJT

DJT stock has been on a rollercoaster since going public in March, with the shares surging or falling in line with news about Trump, its largest shareholder, with about 57% of the company’s shares. The erratic fluctuations of the shares have prompted comparisons with so-called meme stocks, which trade on social media buzz rather than the fundamentals that investors prefer, such as revenue and profitability growth. 

“This has been an extraordinary quarter for the company, for Truth Social users, and for our legion of retail investors who support our mission to serve as a beachhead for free speech on the internet,” Trump Media CEO Devin Nunes said in a statement.

The company said it lost $19.2 million in the quarter ended September 30, compared with a loss of $26 million in the year-earlier period. Sales fell 5.6% to $1.01 million. 

How DJT stock performed on Election Day 

DJT stock initially surged almost 19% on Election Day before giving up those gains and closing down 1%. Trading in the stock was also halted three times on Tuesday by the New York Stock Exchange due to sudden drops in its price.

The shares have been on a wild ride since going public in March, initially surging and giving former president’s 57% stake a value of $5.2 billion. But the shares tumbled after Vice President Kamala Harris entered the presidential race, eventually hitting a low of $11.75 per share in September and shaving Trump’s stake to $1.4 billion. 

But after hitting that low, the shares more than quadrupled after Trump was predicted to win the presidential race by betting markets like Polymarket. 

Yet in recent days, DJT stock has lost much of those gains, shedding 34% of its value since its most recent high of $51.51 per share on October 29.

Senate elections live balance of power for 2024

There are 34 Senate seats up for election in 2024, and Democrats are facing strong headwinds as they seek to defend their narrow 51-49 majority. Heading into Election Day, Republicans appeared to have an edge in several races that could determine control of the Senate.

Senate elections live results map for 2024 

Democrats are facing a particularly difficult map this cycle, fighting to hold seats in two states Trump won in 2020. In another six states, Democratic incumbents are in tight races, while only two Republican-held seats are considered possible pickup opportunities for Democrats.

If history is any guide, one stock market gauge suggests that Vice President Kamala Harris will defeat former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential race. 

In all but two elections since 1944, the party in the White House has retained power when the U.S. stock market advances before Election Day, or the period between the end of July and Halloween, according to an election predictor devised by Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, based out of Allentown, Pennsylvania. 

In 2020, the S&P 500 fell 0.04% from July 31 to October 31, with then-President Donald Trump losing the election to President Joe Biden. While the outcome in the 2024 election is not yet known, the S&P 500 rose 3.3% during that three-month span this year.

To be sure, many other factors can influence a presidential race, and Wall Street is no stranger to making wrong predictions, ranging from the direction of the stock market to election outcomes. And betting markets that allow average investors to place wagers on the election outcome have in recent weeks favored Trump.

“You can say there is sort of an overlap — the market usually goes up on an annual basis and voters tend to give the incumbent the benefit of the doubt, so it makes sense if the market goes up most of the time and the incumbent gets re-elected most of the time,” Stovall told CBS MoneyWatch.

Even more reliable are periods when the stock market falls during the period from July 31 to October 31, in which case the incumbent has been replaced 89% of the time. That predictor failed only once, in 1956, according to Stovall, pointing to the year when incumbent President Dwight Eisenhower defeated Adlai Stevenson, despite the S&P 500 tumbling 7.7% in the period ahead of the election.

Still, Stovall notes a mathematician might scoff at basing a model on such a limited sample, in this case the 21 presidential elections held in the U.S. since World War II. 

“Is this really statistically significant? I think the answer is no, but it makes for interesting copy,” the strategist said. “You can have data tell whatever story you want.”

Limited or not, Stovall is sticking with his presidential predictor.  

“I believe we will see a Harris victory ultimately, because I’m a very big believer in history and rules-based investing,” Stovall told CBS News.