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What’s the mortgage interest rate forecast for November 2024?
Mortgage interest rates and home prices have challenged house hunters in the last few years — forcing many Americans to delay their plans to buy. But September brought a shift when the Federal Reserve cut rates for the first time in 2024. This helped push mortgage rates down for a short while, and more changes could be coming soon.
As the Fed prepares for its November meeting, buyers wonder if another rate cut will make their next home more affordable. Some have already jumped back into the market, while others are choosing to wait and watch.
We talked to three mortgage experts about their predictions for November’s rates. Below, they discuss the forces shaping today’s market and how you can make smart homebuying decisions in the coming months.
See what mortgage interest rate you could qualify for here.
What’s the mortgage interest rate forecast for November 2024?
Mortgage experts see limited relief ahead, despite another Federal Reserve rate cut expected for November.
“I don’t [forecast] rates dropping much. I’d expect them to stay above 6% unless we get a major shift in the economic data,” says Josh Green, a mortgage loan officer at Barrett Financial Group.
At loanDepot, sales manager Debbie Calixto predicts a measured impact from the Fed’s November meeting: “[We’re expecting] a 25 basis point [cut], which may cause mortgage rates to [go down].”
United American Mortgage Corporation’s mortgage loan officer, Dean Rathbun agrees, anticipating the Fed’s quarter-point cut will “create downward pressure on long-term mortgage rates.” However, Calixto thinks it’s unlikely that the drop will be significant.
Explore your current mortgage rate options here.
Key factors shaping mortgage rates
According to experts, several factors shape mortgage rates — with the Federal Reserve’s decisions and economic indicators playing central roles today:
Federal Reserve’s actions
Recent Fed moves have surprised market watchers. Green expected the Fed’s half-point rate cut would finally lower mortgage rates, but the opposite happened. He observes that despite the bond market having already priced in the Fed’s cut, healthy economic data and employment numbers drove rates higher.
Calixto mentions that further relief may be on the horizon with the Fed expected to cut the Fed Funds Rate by an extra 125 to 150 basis points by the end of December 2025. This could bring 30-year fixed mortgage rates down to 4.5% to 5%.
However, she warns against waiting for rates to fall far in the short term. “The Fed may take a gradual approach to get there [since we’ve had encouraging] data [in] recent weeks,” she notes.
Job market and inflation
Employment levels have remained surprisingly strong, defying Green’s prediction that rising unemployment would help lower rates. He doesn’t see much of a drop in rates assuming the job market stays strong.
This resilient job market coupled with stable inflation could lead to a “soft landing” — where the economy cools without tipping into recession. “The Fed could continue cutting rates slowly if the job market stays [healthy] and inflation [remains] low,” Green points out. This is likely their preferred path as it wouldn’t disrupt economic stability.
What this means for potential homebuyers
Election-year uncertainty may be slowing mortgage applications right now, but Calixto noticed an uptick in buyer activity after September’s brief rate decline. “[This] shows the demand is there. When rates [decline] again, we anticipate the activity picking back up,” she says.
Still, mortgage rates can be hard to predict because they fluctuate based on various economic conditions. Calixto advises considering whether you’re ready to buy based on your family’s most important factors. For example:
- Is the home in the right school district?
- Do the numbers fall within your sustainable budget?
- Does it have that swimming pool and backyard you’re looking for?
Deciding based on this approach is better than waiting for mortgage rates to fall. It’s worth moving forward if it’s the right home.
Lenders anticipate rising home prices and demand once rates drop and buyers return to the market. This potential for increased competition is why Rathbun suggests acting sooner: “Buy now, before the bidding wars come back. You can always refinance the loan later if rates drop.” Refinancing allows you to secure your dream home today while keeping the option to lower your monthly payments when rates fall.
The bottom line
Mortgage experts predict modest rate drops in November, so it may not make sense to keep sitting on the sidelines. Doing so could lead to missing out on your ideal home.
“Connect with a trusted mortgage professional now to learn what you qualify for,” recommends Calixto. Starting with a pre-approval helps you understand your monthly payment options and closing costs, putting you in a position to act quickly when you find the right home.
Learn more about your current mortgage options here.
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Gazan chefs cook up hope and humanity for online audience
Renad Atallah is an unlikely internet sensation: a 10-year-old chef, with a repertoire of simple recipes, cooking in war-torn Gaza. She has nearly a million followers on Instagram, who’ve witnessed her delight as she unpacks parcels of food aid.
We interviewed Renad via satellite, though we were just 50 miles away, in Tel Aviv. [Israel doesn’t allow outside journalists into Gaza, except on brief trips with the country’s military.]
“There are a lot of dishes I’d like to cook, but the ingredients aren’t available in the market,” Renad told us. “Milk used to be easy to buy, but now it’s become very expensive.”
I asked, “How does it feel when so many people like your internet videos?”
“All the comments were positive,” she said. “When I’m feeling tired or sad and I want something to cheer me up, I read the comments.”
We sent a local camera crew to Renad’s home as she made Ful, a traditional Middle Eastern bean stew. Her older sister Noorhan says they never expected the videos to go viral. “Amazing food,” Noorhan said, who added that her sibling made her “very surprised!”
After more than a year of war, the Gaza Strip lies in ruins. Nearly everyone has been displaced from their homes. The United Nations says close to two million people are experiencing critical levels of hunger.
Hamada Shaqoura is another chef showing the outside world how Gazans are getting by, relying on food from aid packages, and cooking with a single gas burner in a tent.
Shaqoura also volunteers with the charity Watermelon Relief, which makes sweet treats for Gaza’s children.
In his videos online, Shaqoura always appears very serious. Asked why, he replied, “The situation does not call for smiling. What you see on screen will never show you how hard life is here.”
Before dawn one recent morning in Israel, we watched the UN’s World Food Program load nearly two dozen trucks with flour, headed across the border. The problem is not a lack of food; the problem is getting the food into the Gaza Strip, and into the hands of those who desperately need it.
The UN has repeatedly accused Israel of obstructing aid deliveries to Gaza. Israel’s government denies that, and claims that Hamas is hijacking aid.
“For all the actors that are on the ground, let the humanitarians do their work,” said Antoine Renard, the World Food Program’s director in the Palestinian territories.
I asked, “Some people might see these two chefs and think, well, they’re cooking, they have food.”
“They have food, but they don’t have the right food; they’re trying to accommodate with anything that they can find,” Renard said.
Even in our darkest hour, food can bring comfort. But for many in Gaza, there’s only the anxiety of not knowing where they’ll find their next meal.
For more info:
Story produced by Mikaela Bufano. Editor: Carol Ross.
See also:
“Sunday Morning” 2024 “Food Issue” recipe index
Delicious menu suggestions from top chefs, cookbook authors, food writers, restaurateurs, and the editors of Food & Wine magazine.
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A study to devise nutritional guidance just for you
It’s been said the best meals come from the heart, not from a recipe book. But at this USDA kitchen, there’s no pinch of this, dash of that, no dollops or smidgens of anything. Here, nutritionists in white coats painstakingly measure every single ingredient, down to the tenth of a gram.
Sheryn Stover is expected to eat every crumb of her pizza; any tiny morsels she does miss go back to the kitchen, where they’re scrutinized like evidence of some dietary crime.
Stover (or participant #8180, as she’s known) is one of some 10,000 volunteers enrolled in a $170 million nutrition study run by the National Institutes of Health. “At 78, not many people get to do studies that are going to affect a great amount of people, and I thought this was a great opportunity to do that,” she said.
It’s called the Nutrition for Precision Health Study. “When I tell people about the study, the reaction usually is, ‘Oh, that’s so cool, can I do it?'” said coordinator Holly Nicastro.
She explained just what “precise” precisely means: “Precision nutrition means tailoring nutrition or dietary guidance to the individual.”
The government has long offered guidelines to help us eat better. In the 1940s we had the “Basic 7.” In the ’50s, the “Basic 4.” We’ve had the “Food Wheel,” the “Food Pyramid,” and currently, “My Plate.”
They’re all well-intentioned, except they’re all based on averages – what works best for most people, most of the time. But according to Nicastro, there is no one best way to eat. “We know from virtually every nutrition study ever conducted, we have inner individual variability,” she said. “That means we have some people that are going to respond, and some people that aren’t. There’s no one-size-fits-all.”
The study’s participants, like Stover, are all being drawn from another NIH study program called All Of Us, a massive undertaking to create a database of at least a million people who are volunteering everything from their electronic health records to their DNA. It was from that All of Us research that Stover discovered she has the gene that makes some foods taste bitter, which could explain why she ate more of one kind of food than another.
Professor Sai Das, who oversees the study at Tufts University, says the goal of precision nutrition is to drill down even deeper into those individual differences. “We’re moving away from just saying everybody go do this, to being able to say, ‘Okay, if you have X, Y and Z characteristics, then you’re more likely to respond to a diet, and somebody else that has A, B and C characteristics will be responding to the diet differently,'” Das said.
It’s a big commitment for Stover, who is one of 150 people being paid to live at a handful of test sites around the country for six weeks – two weeks at a time. It’s so precise she can’t even go for a walk without a dietary chaperone. “Well, you could stop and buy candy … God forbid, you can’t do that!” she laughed.
While she’s here, everything from her resting metabolic rate, her body fat percentage, her bone mineral content, even the microbes in her gut (digested by a machine that essentially is a smart toilet paper reading device) are being analyzed for how hers may differ from someone else’s.
Nicastro said, “We really think that what’s going on in your poop is going to tell us a lot of information about your health and how you respond to food.”
Stover says she doesn’t mind, except for the odd sounds the machine makes. While she is a live-in participant, thousands of others are participating from their homes, where electronic wearables track all kinds of health data, including special glasses that record everything they eat, activated when someone starts chewing. Artificial intelligence can then be used to determine not only which foods the person is eating, but how many calories are consumed.
This study is expected to be wrapped up by 2027, and because of it, we may indeed know not only to eat more fruits and vegetables, but what combination of foods is really best for us. The question that even Holly Nicastro can’t answer is, will we listen? “You can lead a horse to water; you can’t make them drink,” she said. “We can tailor the interventions all day. But one hypothesis I have is that if the guidance is tailored to the individual, it’s going to make that individual more likely to follow it, because this is for me, this was designed for me.”
For more info:
Story produced by Mark Hudspeth. Editor: Ed Givnish.
“Sunday Morning” 2024 “Food Issue” recipe index
Delicious menu suggestions from top chefs, cookbook authors, food writers, restaurateurs, and the editors of Food & Wine magazine.
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