CBS News
Experts say Trump’s threatened China tariffs could actually help Beijing weather an economic storm
Hong Kong — President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to slap up a tariff of up to 60% on all goods imported to the U.S. from China. While that may sound like a potent economic threat to a country where economic growth is already faltering, could it actually be just what China needs?
“I do expect U.S.-China economic relations to be more volatile under Trump, but I think overall, this may turn out to be better for China,” Chen Zhiwu, the top finance professor at the University of Hong Kong and a former professor at Yale University, told CBS News.
Chen said if Trump does follow through with his threat of such steep tariffs on China, it “might force the leadership in Beijing to have no other choice but to focus on the economy — especially given that the Chinese economy right now is in very big trouble.”
Since the start of Trump’s first term in the White House, and through President Biden’s term, China’s economic growth has slowed from roughly 7% to 4.5%. The country’s property market has crashed because of massive overbuilding, leading to the rise of empty ghost cities. Youth unemployment rocketed to a new high of nearly 19% in September, dimming prospects for China’s future workforce.
Beijing’s intense focus over the past decade on bolstering its military to meet its geopolitical ambition of rivaling the U.S. and its European and Asia-Pacific allies has further sacrificed opportunities for domestic economic growth, said Chen.
“If you count the number of warships, China has by far the highest number of warships than any country, higher than even the U.S.’ naval ships. What industries have grown the most so far this year? Definitely those warfare-related industries have gone up the most, but those consumer-oriented industries have had no growth or negative growth,” he said.
Most of China’s top 20 aerospace and defense stocks have recorded double-digit growth over the past year alone.
Tariffs “a good thing for China for the long term”?
“The pressure the U.S. is putting on China will become a good thing for China for the long term,” agreed Wang Xiangwei, a former editor-in-chief of the Hong Kong-based newspaper South China Morning Post.
China has relied on two primary engines to support rapid economic growth over the past 40 years, since former leader Deng Xiaoping initiated reforms and started opening the country up, Wang told CBS News. Those have been manufacturing cheap exports for the world by leveraging China’s long-cheap labor force, and later, spending billions on domestic infrastructure including roads, rail and airports.
But labor has become more expensive with the rise of China’s booming middle class, and the government is running out of new things to build across the country.
Beijing has found it difficult, meanwhile, to fire up a potential third engine of economic growth: The capacity of the country’s 1.3 billion people to consume domestically made products.
Trump’s threatened tariffs could give a needed external push for that to change, said Wang.
“I believe China’s going to suffer in the short term. In the long term, he’s [Trump] going to help China to make that painful transition,” Wang said, noting that in the U.S., domestic consumption accounts for 70% to 80% of the national GDP, while in China, it’s “only about 60%.”
In effect, pushing China’s own people to buy more of their country’s own goods and services could, in the view of the two analysts, prove to be Beijing’s best protection against Trump’s threatened tariffs.
“The best tool would be to stimulate consumption growth inside China,” said Chen. “At the moment, the leadership has not really tried to help the Chinese consumers by sending them government checks and even tax costs to corporations. I think if the Chinese government really moves in that direction more aggressively, then it would help the Chinese economy generate more internal domestic consumption demand to make up for some of their possible lost exports to the U.S.”
Beijing needs Washington, but tariffs could have a complex impact
During Trump’s first term as president, he imposed tariffs ranging from 10% to 25% on Chinese agricultural products imported to the U.S., including seafood, pork and dairy. Beijing retaliated with its own tariffs, kicking off a trade war between the world’s two biggest economies.
Nearly eight years later, however, Beijing appears less able to wage such a war, due to its close economic links with the U.S.
“In terms of retaliation choices for China, it’s very limited,” said Chen. “China imports a lot of agricultural products like soybeans, corn. They may try to import more such agricultural products from Brazil, and also from Russia as one of their ways to retaliate against the U.S. But at the end of the day, China imports so much [computer] chips from Nvidia, Intel, especially Qualcomm,” Wang said. “Those products are what China needs. So, China cannot produce internally.”
In effect, if Beijing does impose retaliatory tariffs, it could be shooting itself in the proverbial foot. Tariffs would make all those products, vital to China’s continued economic and technological development, more expensive for its own people.
But another possible impact of Trump’s expected protectionist policies could actually be to push some of America’s oldest allies and trade partners closer to China, reversing the so-called decoupling of the U.S. and Western European economies from Beijing that Washington has pushed under Mr. Biden.
“The Biden administration did such a good job to more or less unite that,” said Chen. “If Trump makes the EU and NATO member countries upset, that makes it more possible for Germany, for France or Italy or even the U.K. to warm up more with China on the trade front. So, that may help neutralize, to some extent, the negative impact of the expected Trump tariffs on Chinese goods.”
Trump has claimed repeatedly that foreign companies would foot the bill, effectively absorbing the additional costs of exporting to the U.S. market imposed by his tariffs, but many economists disagree, and say it would effectively be a tax on American consumers.
According to findings released by the National Retail Federation last week, U.S. consumers could lose between $46 billion and $78 billion in spending power per year on everything from clothes and toys to household appliances and travel goods if there is a 60% blanket tariff on Chinese goods.
“Retailers rely heavily on imported products and manufacturing components so that they can offer their customers a variety of products at affordable prices,” NRF Vice President of Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “A tariff is a tax paid by the U.S. importer, not a foreign country or the exporter. This tax ultimately comes out of consumers’ pockets through higher prices.”
All of that said, and despite Trump’s history of anti-China rhetoric, it remains unclear how quickly his administration might actually move to roll out sweeping tariffs, with some economists speculating that the president-elect plans, initially at least, to use the threat of additional levies as a cudgel to negotiate more favorable trade terms with Beijing. Trump could also choose to gradually phase in tariffs, delaying their full impact on China’s economy.
Will China attack Taiwan, and would Trump come to the rescue?
Trump’s return to the White House may also help Beijing further its interests with Taiwan, the democratically governed island of 23 million people just off China’s east coast that the country considers a renegade province. President Xi Jinping has vowed to bring Taiwan back under Beijing’s control, by force if necessary.
Since the U.S. government enacted the Taiwan Relations Act in 1979, the U.S. is strategically committed to aid in Taiwan’s defense in the event of any aggression, including by selling weapons to the island’s government.
Open to interpretation, however, and left deliberately vague in the U.S. law, is whether Washington is obligated to directly defend Taiwan, using the power of the American military, if it does come under attack.
President Biden, during his first term, said Washington would, breaking with the long-time policy of “strategic ambiguity” that the Biden White House later returned to.
“The sovereignty over Taiwan is the red line of all the red lines,” Wang told CBS News. “Trump, in his presidential campaign speeches, he made it very clear… [that he’s] unlikely to send troops to defend Taiwan.”
“I believe that China’s not going to invade Taiwan anytime soon,” Wang added, noting that Beijing has “so many problems it’ll have to fix at home.”
If Beijing did invade Taiwan, the fallout would be felt worldwide.
“That would be a devastating hit to the global economy,” said Chen. “I hope that it would not happen. So, maybe now, given the challenges with the Chinese economy, the leadership is realizing that without a stable economy, then all its global geopolitical ambitions would not have any economic foundation.”
contributed to this report.
“Wicked: Part 1,” arguably the most highly anticipated movie of the holiday season, has prompted debate over expectations of how audiences should behave during screenings of the musical, which hit theaters this weekend.
To sing, or not to sing along
Theater chain AMC has urged viewers to stay quiet during the screening. However, some fans have strong opinions about whether they should be allowed to sing or not.
Signs read, “To our guests seeing Wicked, we ask that you allow everyone to enjoy the cinema experience. Please refrain from singing during the show.”
Some online agreed with AMC, saying they want to hear the stars, not audience members. One moviegoer brought a poster to the theater reading, “attention Ozians: However beautiful (or not), no singing please!”
Others argued that because the movie is a musical, people should be allowed to sing, especially on opening weekend.
“I say, if you come the first time and you sing through, sing through,” said actress Cynthia Erivo, who stars as Elphaba in the film, in an interview with StayTunedNBC. “But come a second time and let us sing to you.”
Ariana Grande, who stars as Glinda, added she understands the “tempting” urge to sing along but also respects why people would not. She said if someone throws popcorn, “maybe stop.”
There is hope, however, for those with a song in their hearts. AMC will offer a sing-along version in some North American cinemas on Christmas Day, just over a month after the film’s premiere, according to Variety.
Max Cisotti/Dave Benett/WireImage
Who is in the star-studded cast?
Erivo is a Tony and Grammy-award-winning British actress and singer who rose to fame starring in the Broadway Revival of “The Color Purple.” She also received an Oscar nomination for her portrayal of Harriet Tubman in the 2019 biopic “Harriet.”
Grande is a Grammy-award-winning singer, songwriter and actress, who began her career in “13” on Broadway and then appeared in several Nickelodeon shows. She is widely known as a pop music superstar, with hits like “7 Rings” and “Thank U, Next.”
Jonathan Bailey plays Fiyero, a prince and Elphaba’s love interest. Bailey rose to fame starring in the Netflix series “Bridgerton” and has a musical background in West End productions like “Les Miserables” and “Company.”
Elphaba’s sister Nessarose’s love interest, Boq, is played by Ethan Slater, best known as Spongebob in “Spongebob Squarepants” on Broadway.
Oscar-winning icon Michelle Yeoh plays Madame Morrible, a Shiz University headmistress. Her most recent triumph came from starring in “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” President Biden awarded her with the Presidential Medal of Freedom earlier this year.
Acclaimed actor Jeff Goldblum plays The Wizard. Two of his most famous blockbusters include “Jurassic Park” and “Independence Day.” He also has critically acclaimed roles in Wes Anderson films and appears in the Marvel Cinematic Universe.
Dr. Dillamond, the goat-professor at Shiz University, is played by award-winning actor Peter Dinklage. He is most famous for his role as Tyrion Lannister in “Game of Thrones.”
“Saturday Night Live” star and comedian Bowen Yang plays Pfannee, one of Glinda’s friends.
Keala Settle, best known for her role in “The Greatest Showman” and as Angelique/Nurse in the West End musical “& Juliette,” plays Miss Coddle. The original character was created for the 2024 film.
What is it about (spoiler-free)? And what else to know
“Wicked: Part 1” is the first of a two-part film series based on the musical “Wicked,” adapted from the Gregory Maguire book “Wicked.” It’s a take on “The Wizard of Oz.”
The 2024 movie follows the Good Witch, Glinda, and the Bad Witch, Elphaba’s, unlikely friendship that blossomed as university roommates. The pair venture to the city of Oz to meet The Wizard.
It as a runtime of 2 hours and 44 minutes. Fans should not anticipate a post-credit scene after the movie ends.
“Wicked: Part 2” is slated for release on Nov. 21, 2025.
What’s “Glicked?”
A November Fandango survey found that nearly 65% of moviegoers were interested in seeing a double feature of “Wicked” and “Gladiator II” in theaters. Both films were released the same weekend.
The movie-combo has been dubbed “Glicked,” reminiscent of 2023’s “Barbenheimer.”
Alice Brock, whose Massachusetts-based eatery helped inspire Arlo Guthrie’s deadpan Thanksgiving standard, “Alice’s Restaurant Massacree,” has died at age 83.
Guthrie announced the death on the Facebook page of his own Rising Son Records label.
“This coming Thanksgiving will be the first without her,” Guthrie wrote. “Alice and I spoke by phone a couple of weeks ago, and she sounded like her old self. We joked around and had a couple of good laughs even though we knew we’d never have another chance to talk together.”
Guthrie wrote that she died in Provincetown, Massachusetts, her residence for some 40 years, and referred to her being in failing health. He did not say what was the cause of death.
Born Alice May Pelkey in New York City, Brock was a lifelong rebel who was a member of Students for a Democratic Society, among other organizations. In the early 1960s, she dropped out of Sarah Lawrence College, moved to Greenwich Village and married Ray Brock, a woodworker who encouraged her to leave New York and resettle in Massachusetts.
Guthrie, son of the celebrated folk musician Woody Guthrie, first met Brock around 1962 when he was attending the Stockbridge School in Massachusetts and she was the librarian. They became friends and stayed in touch after he left school, when he would stay with her and her husband at the converted Stockbridge church that became the Brocks’ main residence.
On Thanksgiving Day, 1965, a simple chore led to Guthrie’s arrest, his eventual avoidance of military service during the Vietnam War and a song that has endured as a protest classic and holiday favorite. Guthrie and his friend Richard Robbins were helping the Brocks throw out trash, but ended up tossing it down a hill because they couldn’t find an open dumpster. Police charged them with illegal dumping, briefly jailed them and fined them $50, a seemingly minor offense with major repercussions.
By 1966, Alice Brock was running The Back Room restaurant in Stockbridge, Guthrie was a rising star and his breakout song was an 18-minute talking blues that recounted his arrest and how it made him ineligible for the draft. The chorus was a tribute to Alice —whose restaurant, Guthrie pointed out, was not actually called Alice’s Restaurant— that countless fans have since memorized:
“You can get anything you want at Alice’s Restaurant / You can get anything you want at Alice’s Restaurant / Walk right in it’s around the back / Just a half a mile from the railroad track / You can get anything you want at Alice’s Restaurant.”
Guthrie assumed his song was too long to catch on commercially, but it soon became a radio perennial and part of popular culture. “Alice’s Restaurant” was the title of his million-selling debut album, and the basis of a movie and cookbook of the same name.
Alice Brock would write a memoir, “My Life as a Restaurant,” and collaborate with Guthrie on a children’s book, “Mooses Come Walking.” At the time of her death, they had been discussing an exhibit dedicated to her at her former Stockton home, now the Guthrie Center, which serves free dinners every Thanksgiving.
Brock ran three different restaurants at various times, although she would later acknowledge she initially didn’t care much for cooking or for business. She would also cite her professional life as a cause of her marriage breaking up, while disputing rumors that she had been unfaithful to her husband.
Her honor was immortalized by Guthrie, who late in “Alice’s Restaurant” advised: “You can get anything you want” at Alice’s Restaurant, “excepting Alice.”
President-elect Donald Trump nominated Dr. Marty Makary Friday to lead the Food and Drug Administration, selecting a surgeon and author who opposed vaccine mandates and some other public health measures during the coronavirus pandemic.
Makary, a Johns Hopkins University professor, is the latest in a string of Trump nominees who have declared the U.S. health system to be “broken” and in need of a shakeup.
Photo by Noam Galai/Getty Images for HBO
Makary has criticized in books and articles the overprescribing of drugs, the use of pesticides on foods and the undue influence of pharmaceutical and insurance companies over doctors and government regulators.
Trump announced the nomination in a statement Friday night, saying Makary would “restore FDA to the gold standard of scientific research, and cut the bureaucratic red tape at the agency to make sure Americans get the medical cures and treatments they deserve.” Makary will have to be confirmed by the Republican-led Senate.
Headquartered in the Maryland suburbs outside Washington, the 18,000 employees of the FDA are responsible for the safety and effectiveness of prescription drugs, vaccines and medical devices as well as a swath of other consumer goods, including food, cosmetics and vaping products. Altogether those products represent an estimated 20% of U.S. consumer spending annually, or $2.6 trillion.
Makary gained prominence on Fox News and other conservative outlets for his contrarian views during the COVID-19 pandemic. He questioned the need for masking and, though he was not opposed to the COVID-19 vaccine, Makary had concerns about vaccinations in young children.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that COVID-19 vaccinations prevented more than 686,000 U.S. deaths in 2020 and 2021 alone. While children faced much lower rates of hospitalization and death from the virus, medical societies including the American Academy of Pediatrics concluded that vaccinations significantly reduced severe disease in the age group.
Trained as a surgeon and cancer specialist, Makary was part of a vocal group of physicians calling for greater emphasis on herd immunity to stop the virus, or the idea that mass infections would quickly lead to population-level protection.
In a February 2021 Wall Street Journal piece, he wrote that “COVID will be mostly gone by April, allowing Americans to resume normal life.” That summer the delta variant of the virus ripped through the U.S., followed by omicron in the winter, leading to hundreds of thousands of additional deaths.
If Makary is confirmed and anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is also confirmed as Trump’s pick to oversee the Department of Health and Human Services, which includes the FDA, Makary would likely report to Kennedy. Makary does not share Kennedy’s discredited views on vaccines, but he has a similar distrust of the pharmaceutical industry.
Makary has lamented that drugmakers used misleading data to urge doctors to prescribe OxyContin and other opioids as low-risk, non-addictive pain relievers. That marketing was permitted under FDA-approved labeling from the 1990s, suggesting the drugs were safe for common ailments like back pain.
In more recent years, the FDA has come under fire for approving drugs for Alzheimer’s, ALS and other conditions based on incomplete data that failed to show meaningful benefits for patients.
A push toward greater scrutiny of drug safety and effectiveness would be a major reversal at FDA, which for decades has focused on speedier drug approvals. That trend has been fueled by industry lobbying and fees paid by drugmakers to help the FDA hire additional reviewers.
Kennedy has proposed ending those payments, which would require billions in new funding from the federal budget.
Other administration priorities would likely run into similar roadblocks. For instance, Kennedy wants to bar drugmakers from advertising on TV, a multibillion-dollar market that supports many TV and cable networks. The Supreme Court and other conservative judges would likely overturn such a ban on First Amendment grounds that protect commercial speech, experts note.
Makary would also inherit a number of ongoing projects at the FDA kicked off by outgoing Commissioner Robert Califf, including the reorganization of the agency’s food division and plans to regulate artificial intelligence in medical technology.
In the event of other controversial initiatives under Trump, career staffers may simply drag the work out until a new administration comes to power.
“The bureaucracy can wait anybody out, and that’s an attitude I think you’ll hear a lot,” said Wayne Pines, a former FDA official under Republican and Democratic administrations.
