Americans planning to do some holiday baking this year may have to scramble to track down a key ingredient. 

Some stores around the U.S. are running short of eggs, especially those operating in states that require eggs from cage-free hens, as cases of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) flare and the virus spreads from wild birds to commercial flocks. More than 40% of the nation’s roughly 300 million egg-laying hens are raised in cage-free facilities, but roughly 60% of “bird flu” cases recently detected involved cage-free farms.

“After two months of no outbreaks, we had them recently in Utah, Oregon, California and Washington, and three of those states are exclusively cage-free,” Emily Metz, chief executive and president of the American Egg Board, told CBS MoneyWatch. “Where we are hearing reports of shortages it’s at stores like a Whole Foods or a Trader Joe’s.”

After a brief respite from bird flu among commercial-egg producers, HPAI struck again starting in mid-October, resulting in the loss of 2.8 million birds. The nation’s egg production fell 2.6% last month from a year ago and is projected to be down 1% this year versus 2023, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service recently said in a monthly report. 

The outbreaks, which began in January of 2022, have affected nearly 110 million chickens, turkeys and other birds, including wild, commercial and backyard flocks in 49 states, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That was the first time HPAI, also known as H5N1, had been detected in the U.S. since 2016. 

The return of bird flu is wiping out poultry populations at commercial facilities in multiple states, most recently striking more than a million egg-laying hens in California’s Kern County, where HPAI had been confirmed in 2.2 million egg-laying hens the prior week, according to the USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service. 

More than 790,000 egg layers were also culled last week at a commercial operation in Arizona’s Pinal County.

How long do shortages last?

The tighter egg supplies means the U.S. is experiencing “hyper-localized shortages that are very temporary and intermittent and that are corrected sometimes within a day,” said Metz, whose board markets and promotes eggs and egg products.

“There are local areas where supplies aren’t quite as strong, so you might see pockets where shelves get picked over,” said Brent Nelson, an economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation.

After HPAI-related shortages drove up egg prices in the spring, the virus is having the same impact this winter. Experts forecast that egg prices could stay elevated for the rest of the year and into 2025.

As with the cost of other commodities, egg prices fluctuate with supply and demand, the latter of which has remained fairly stable over the year, regardless of cost, according to the Farm Bureau’s Nelson. The egg board, however, said America’s appetite for the protein has grown of late, rising steadily for 20 consecutive quarters.

“We see egg prices ride the wave as bird flu comes and goes,” Nelson said. Right now, “Bird flu infections are by far the biggest factor impacting egg prices.” 

The national average for a dozen eggs is $3.37, up 30% from a year ago but lower than the January 2023 average of $4.82, the economist said. But some regions are seeing even higher prices. In California, white cage-free eggs were selling for about $5.26 a dozen last week — up nearly 90% from $2.81 during the same time in 2023, according to the USDA.

Despite the price spikes, Nelson and Metz advised consumers against hoarding a perishable product like eggs, emphasizing that shortages typically pass quickly as retailers replenish their supplies.

“Eggs keep in the fridge really well — if you need them, go and get them,” said Nelson.

Added Metz, “There is a hen for almost every person in the U.S., if they are not in the supermarket today, come back tomorrow.”