Mortgage rates soared in the post-pandemic era, leaving borrowers scrambling to find home loans under 7.00%. This came as a big shock to those who’d become used to the 3.00% to 4.00% rates that lasted from the end of the great recession until COVID-19 hit and sent inflation surging. 

As a result, many would-be homebuyers put off their home purchases in hopes of lower mortgage rates, and refinancing was also off the table for many due to high borrowing costs. When inflation began to cool, though, it appeared they’d get their wish for lower costs as the Federal Reserve dropped the benchmark interest rate during both the September and November Fed meetings.

Unfortunately, while there was a brief dip in current mortgage rates, the trend soon reversed course, and the cost of borrowing actually got more expensive again — frustrating those hoping for low rates to finally come in 2024. So for those waiting to buy a home and putting off their purchase in hopes they’ll get a lower rate, the big question now is: What’s going to happen with home-buying costs in December? 

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Will mortgage rates fall in December? Here’s what experts predict

If you’re wondering whether mortgage rates will fall this month, here’s what experts have to say on this issue. 

Mortgage rates probably won’t fall much, if at all, in December

There’s some unfortunate news for those hoping mortgage rates will decline in December. There’s little reason to believe this is a likely outcome.

“While we may see mortgage rates drop modestly in December, anyone expecting a significant change for the better may be disappointed,” says Darren Tooley, senior loan officer at Cornerstone Financial Services.  

Change likely isn’t on the horizon for a few reasons, according to Tooley. 

“The next two-day Fed meeting isn’t until mid-December, and while most experts still predict another rate cut of 25 basis points, there are signals they may pause until they meet again in January,” Tooley says. “Plus, even if the Fed does make another cut, mortgage rates are still near 7% even after the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points in September and by another 25 basis points in November.”

While frustrating for buyers, these trends show Fed rate drops don’t necessarily mean mortgage rates decline. In fact, Sarah Alvarez, vice president of mortgage banking at William Raveis Mortgage, explained that the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut rates doesn’t directly impact mortgages at all, as the Fed only sets the benchmark rate at which banks borrow from each other. A decline of 0.75% in the benchmark rate doesn’t mean mortgages get 0.75% cheaper. 

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Mortgage rates may rise

Stable rates may seem like a bad outcome for those who’ve been waiting for a decline in borrowing costs, but there’s actually a worse potential outcome on the table. 

“It seems unlikely that mortgage rates will fall in December,” Alvarez says. “A better question is whether they will remain stable or continue on their recent march up. Unfortunately, concerns over the next administration’s potentially inflationary policies have shot 10-year treasury yields up, which is typically the closest correlation for mortgage rates banks are offering.” 

Aaron Craig, VP of mortgage and indirect sales for Georgia’s Own Credit Union, points out another troubling fact. 

“After the last couple Fed Funds rate cuts in the last couple months, mortgage interest rates actually went up,” Craig says. 

This could easily happen again, especially as treasury yields trend higher.

Future rate cuts could be coming 

So, is there any hope for those looking to buy a home? While the news may be bleak for December, there is reason to believe there are promising days ahead. 

“Unfortunately, I don’t believe we will see inflation numbers coming down in December, which we will need before we see any major improvement in mortgage rates. However, If we can get better than expected inflationary data and if there are signs of slowing in the jobs reports, along with a December rate cut by the Fed, we may see rates hit the mid-6% range, which would be a significant win for homebuyers,” Tooley says. 

Waiting for this to happen may not be the best idea for would-be buyers, though, especially as many experts think a big drop in mortgage costs could result in borrowers flooding the housing market and sending home prices higher.  

The bottom line

Ultimately, for those who are in a good financial position and who can afford to borrow at today’s rates, moving forward sooner rather than later is likely the best choice. Future refinancing is an option, but returning to today’s rates or home prices in the future may not be, so don’t let hopes of a future rate drop hold you back from your dream home.

Washington — President Biden announced late Sunday that he issued a pardon for his son Hunter Biden, in a major reversal in the final weeks of his presidency.

Mr. Biden repeatedly pledged not to pardon his son, who was convicted in June of three separate felony charges related to his purchase of a revolver in 2018 when he was battling an addiction to illegal drugs, which he lied about on paperwork to obtain the gun. He also pleaded guilty to nine tax evasion charges in a separate case in September.

“Today, I signed a pardon for my son Hunter. From the day I took office, I said I would not interfere with the Justice Department’s decision-making, and I kept my word even as I have watched my son being selectively, and unfairly, prosecuted,” Mr. Biden said in a statement Sunday night.

The president argued that “Hunter was treated differently” than others under similar circumstances, claiming that the charges were brought after “several of my political opponents in Congress instigated them to attack me and oppose my election.”

“No reasonable person who looks at the facts of Hunter’s cases can reach any other conclusion than Hunter was singled out only because he is my son — and that is wrong,” Mr. Biden said.

The “Full and Unconditional Pardon” applies to any crimes Hunter Biden may have committed from Jan. 1, 2014, through Dec. 1, 2024.

Mr. Biden did not address the pardon with reporters before boarding Air Force One for his trip to Angola.

Hunter Biden charges and allegations

Hunter Biden was investigated and prosecuted by special counsel David Weiss, the Trump-appointed U.S. attorney in Delaware who was kept on by Mr. Biden’s administration in 2021, when other Trump-era prosecutors were asked to resign, in order to continue the probes into Hunter’s conduct. Attorney General Merrick Garland later elevated Weiss to special counsel status after whistleblowers and congressional Republicans alleged irregularities in the probe.

Weiss’ office declined to comment on the pardon.

Joseph Ziegler and Gary Shapley, two IRS whistleblowers who came forward to raise concerns about what they said were the Justice Department’s efforts to shield Hunter Biden, said in a statement that it was “a sad day for law abiding taxpayers to witness this special privilege for the powerful.”

Before dropping out of the race for president, Mr. Biden had committed not to pardon his son, saying in an interview with ABC News in June that he had ruled it out. After opting to leave the race the next month, the White House maintained that Mr. Biden had no plans to pardon his son, though the possible political consequences of the decision had decreased. The White House said as recently as last month that the president still had no plans to issue a pardon.

“I have admitted and taken responsibility for my mistakes during the darkest days of my addiction — mistakes that have been exploited to publicly humiliate and shame me and my family for political sport. Despite all of this, I have maintained my sobriety for more than five years because of my deep faith and the unwavering love and support of my family and friends,” Hunter Biden said in a statement Sunday night. 

“I will never take the clemency I have been given today for granted and will devote the life I have rebuilt to helping those who are still sick and suffering,” the president’s son said.

Hunter Biden was set to be sentenced for the gun convictions on Dec. 12 and on Dec. 16 for the tax evasion charges.

Following the White House announcement of the pardon, Hunter Biden’s legal team informed the federal judges overseeing his cases in Delaware and California about the pardon so the cases can be formally dismissed and the sentencing hearings set for later this month be canceled.

Hunter Biden was indicted on three felony gun charges in September after a proposed plea deal with federal prosecutors fell apart. The deal would have had him plead guilty to two misdemeanor tax charges and enter a diversion program instead of pleading guilty to a felony gun possession count.

During the court hearing in which the plea deal was set to be finalized, the judge overseeing the case raised concerns over the terms while Hunter Biden’s legal team pushed back against prosecutors over whether the agreement was to protect the president’s son from any future criminal charges.  

Hunter Biden was accused of lying on paperwork and illegally purchasing and possessing a gun while he was addicted to crack cocaine. Federal law prohibits users of illegal drugs from owning firearms. 

Prosecutors said the president’s son lied about his drug use on a Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives form when he bought a revolver and several other items from a Wilmington, Delaware, gun store on Oct. 12, 2018.

In the separate case in California, a federal grand jury last December charged Hunter Biden with three felony tax offenses and six misdemeanor offenses. The president’s son was accused of failing to pay at least $1.4 million in federal taxes while living an “extravagant lifestyle.”

According to the indictment, Hunter Biden made some $7 million in income from his foreign business dealings from 2016 through 2019. He was accused of spending nearly $5 million during that same time period on “everything but his taxes,” including on drugs, escorts, luxury hotels, cars and clothing. Hunter Biden was accused of falsely listing those purchases as business expenses.

After unsuccessfully attempting to enter an “Alford” plea, wherein a defendant accepts a guilty verdict while maintaining their innocence, Hunter Biden pleaded guilty to the tax evasion charges on Sept. 5. 

“Without aggravating factors like use in a crime, multiple purchases, or buying a weapon as a straw purchaser, people are almost never brought to trial on felony charges solely for how they filled out a gun form,” Mr. Biden said Sunday night. “Those who were late paying their taxes because of serious addictions, but paid them back subsequently with interest and penalties, are typically given non-criminal resolutions. It is clear that Hunter was treated differently.”

Reaction to the pardon

On social media, President-elect Donald Trump called the Biden pardon “an abuse and miscarriage of Justice!” 

Other Republicans on Sunday and Monday decried the pardon. House Speaker Mike Johnson posted X that “trust in our justice system has been almost irreparably damaged by the Bidens and their use and abuse of it.” 

Sen. Chuck Grassley wrote that is he is “shocked” about the pardon because Mr. Biden “said many many times he wouldn’t & I believed him[.] Shame on me.”

Colorado’s Democratic Gov. Jared Polis, meanwhile, wrote on Sunday that as a father, he understands Mr. Biden’s desire to pardon his son, but said he was “disappointed that he put his family ahead of the country. This is a bad precedent that could be abused by later Presidents and will sadly tarnish his reputation.”

Presidential pardons

Hunter Biden is the 26th person to receive a pardon during Mr. Biden’s presidency. Most of the others received pardons for drug offenses. Trump granted 29 pardons at this point in his first term, but issued a total of 143 pardons by the time he left office in 2020.  

This is not the first time a president has pardoned a family member. President Bill Clinton pardoned his half-brother, Roger Clinton, before leaving office. Trump pardoned his son-in-law’s father, Charles Kushner, during his first term. Trump announced that he intends to nominate Kushner as U.S. ambassador to France on Saturday.  

The two federal cases against Hunter Biden came amid a backdrop of Republican-led congressional inquiries into his business dealings and whether they involved Mr. Biden. The president has maintained he had nothing to do with his son’s businesses and the investigative committees produced no evidence showing the president engaged in wrongdoing.

contributed to this report.