Toronto, Ontario — Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party won Canada’s federal election on Monday, capping a stunning turnaround in fortunes sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump’s annexation threats and trade war.
After the polls closed, the Liberals were expected to win more of Parliament’s 343 seats than the Conservatives, but it was unclear whether they would win an outright majority or would need to rely on one or more smaller parties to form a government and pass legislation.
The Liberals appeared to be heading for a crushing defeat until the American president began attacking Canada’s economy and threatening its sovereignty, suggesting that it become the 51st state. Trump’s actions infuriated Canadians and fueled a surge in nationalism, allowing the Liberals to flip the election narrative and win a fourth consecutive term in power.
“We died and were buried in December. “Now we’re going to form a government,” former Liberal Justice Minister David Lametti told CTV.
“We have turned this around thanks to Mark,” he told me.
The Conservative Party’s leader, Pierre Poilievre, hoped to turn the election into a referendum on former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose popularity dipped near the end of his decade in office as food and housing prices rose.
But when Trump attacked, Trudeau resigned, and Carney, a two-time central banker, took over as Liberal Party leader and prime minister.
Even as Canadians dealt with the fallout from a deadly weekend attack at a Vancouver street festival, Trump was trolling them on election day, implying on social media that he was on their ballot and reiterating that Canada should become the 51st state. He also incorrectly claimed that the United States subsidizes Canada, stating, “It makes no sense unless Canada is a state!”
Trump’s truculence has enraged many Canadians, prompting them to cancel U.S. vacations, refuse to buy American goods, and possibly vote early. A record 7.3 million Canadians voted before election day.
“The Americans want to break us so they can own us,” Carney said in the days leading up to the election. “These aren’t just words. That’s what is at stake.”
As he and his wife cast their ballots in their Ottawa district on Monday, Poilievre urged voters to “get out and vote — for a change.” After months of running a Trump-like campaign, his similarities to the bombastic American leader may have cost him.
Reid Warren, a Toronto resident, said he voted Liberal because Poilievre “sounds like a mini-Trump to me.” He also expressed concern about President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
“Canadians coming together from, you know, all the shade being thrown from the States is great, but it’s definitely created some turmoil, that’s for sure,” said the prime minister.
Historian Robert Bothwell said Poilievre appealed to the “same sense of grievance” as Trump, but it cost him votes.
“The Liberals ought to pay him,” Bothwell said, referring to the US president. “Trump talking is not good for the Conservatives.”
Carney and the Liberals cleared a significant hurdle by winning a fourth consecutive term, but they face formidable challenges ahead.
Foreign policy hasn’t dominated a Canadian election like it has this year since 1988, when, ironically, free trade with the United States was the dominant issue.
In addition to the trade war with the United States and the strained relationship with Trump, Canada is facing a cost-of-living crisis. Furthermore, more than 75% of its exports go to the United States, so Trump’s tariff threat and desire to persuade North American automakers to relocate Canada’s production south could severely harm the Canadian economy.
While campaigning, Carney promised that every dollar the government collects from counter-tariffs on US goods would go to Canadian workers who have been negatively impacted by the trade war.
He also stated that he intends to keep dental care in place, provide a middle-class tax cut, reduce immigration to sustainable levels, and increase funding for Canada’s public broadcaster, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation.