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Why is the Iowa caucus so important? What to know about today’s high-stakes vote
Republicans are in a fierce competition as they’ve crisscrossed all Iowa’s 99 counties ahead of Monday’s caucuses. Despite extensive efforts by several prominent Republicans to court Iowans, it appears they’ve fallen short as the state’s caucuses approach, with former President Donald Trump maintaining a substantial lead over his rivals in the polls.
But as the first state to hold any nominating contests, Iowa acts as a litmus test for candidates vying for their party’s nomination. And despite Trump’s lead, Iowans have found themselves inundated with GOP candidates fervently pleading their cases.
When are the Iowa caucuses?
The Republican Party will hold its caucuses on Monday, Jan. 15. Iowa Democrats are holding a caucus on the same day, but are opting for voters to choose their candidate entirely by mail-in ballot this election cycle and will release the results on Super Tuesday on March 5.
Following the chaotic events of Democratic 2020 caucuses, Iowa Democrats had overhauled their caucus and presidential delegate selection process to ensure an indisputable winner.
Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images
President Biden and his team will instead prioritize South Carolina as the initial state in the lineup, succeeded by New Hampshire and Nevada a week later, with Michigan following. Originally, the plan included Georgia holding a primary just before Michigan, but Democratic efforts to advance their date faced resistance from Republicans in the state.
But New Hampshire has opted to maintain its first-in-nation primary status and will hold its primary on Jan. 23, and Mr. Biden will not be on the ballot. His team has led a write-in campaign in the state.
What is the difference between a caucus and a primary?
A caucus involves a more complex process where participants gather openly, engaging in discussions and voting to express their support for a particular candidate. Unlike primaries, caucuses require voters to physically attend specific meetings, which demands a higher level of commitment — meaning there is s lower voter turnout. The process of assigning delegates in caucuses may differ, adding greater flexibility to the overall method.
Conversely, in a primary election, voters participate by casting their ballots in private to choose their preferred candidate. This process is akin to a general election, allowing voters to select their candidate in a more straightforward manner. Primary elections generally witness higher voter participation due to their accessibility, with voters able to cast their ballots throughout the day. Delegates in primaries are typically allocated proportionally, reflecting the percentage of votes each candidate receives.
Primaries offer a simpler and more accessible voting process, resulting in higher voter participation, while caucuses involve a more involved and participatory approach, requiring voters to actively engage in discussions. The decision hinges on the rules and preferences set by the state party.
Why do presidential candidates care so much about the Iowa caucus?
Historically, presidential candidates have looked to the Iowa caucus to help launch themselves to nominee status.
But the Iowa caucus hasn’t always gone on to be the best predictor of who will be the party’s nominee, even less so at predicting who will win the presidency. The state is largely White and conservative and not entirely representative of the U.S. population.
Iowa Republicans selected Mike Huckabee in 2008, Rick Santorum in 2012 and Ted Cruz in 2016 — none of whom went on to clinch the nomination.
Some candidates who faced defeat in Iowa went on to secure victory, including Ronald Reagan in 1980, George H.W. Bush in 1988, and Trump in 2016.
Since its inception in 1972, only three presidential candidates who triumphed in the Iowa caucuses have ascended to the presidency: Democrats Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008, and Republican George W. Bush in 2000.
Still, the caucus’ outcome frequently provides an outsized advantage to winners and those who exceed expectations, often narrowing down the field by prompting underperforming candidates to exit the race.
What can the Iowa caucus results tell us about 2024?
Kyle Kondik, an elections analyst and managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, posits that Iowa serves as a more accurate snapshot of the current Republican Party. This is due to the demographic makeup, specifically the inclusion of religious and blue-collar voters.
In contrast, Kondik noted that the results of the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 23 may offer less insight into the overall success of the Republican party. This is because there’s a larger share of moderate and independent voters in the state.
So even if Trump loses New Hampshire, “I don’t think it’s necessarily some sort of huge problem for him,” Kondik said.
Now, he said, if former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley were to win New Hampshire and then South Carolina a month later, “that’s where this thing maybe gets interesting,” given that both states have electorates that more closely mirror the rest of the U.S.
But if Trump were to win both Iowa and New Hampshire, it’s unlikely any of the other candidates could continue on, he said.
What are Iowans saying?
As Iowans brave the snowstorms leading up to the caucuses, many are ready to navigate the weather and cast their votes on Monday.
“I appreciate, people should appreciate when they live in Iowa, that we have so much exposure to the candidates firsthand, you really do get to be right there and ask them questions and get to see the person you know, even behind the scenes, not just in front of the camera. So I hope people pay attention and go out and caucus. It’s extremely important. You get to vote, you know, with a paper ballot right in the room, it gets counted right in front of you. And you just know the answer of who came out ahead and whatnot right there that night,” said Laurie Stiles from Johnston, Iowa.
For some who have never caucused before, they’re looking forward to hearing from other voters.
“I’ve never caucused before. But this time, I really want to hear what other people have to say, what they’re thinking,” said Ken Geoghegan, an undecided voter in Iowa.
Even though the Iowa caucus may not serve as a crystal ball for the entire presidential election year, Iowans still perceive themselves as key players in the process, contributing to the narrowing down of the candidate field.
“We’re still faith, family and friends first, right? And I think we do a very good job of leading the nation,” said Eric Vaske, a voter from Manchester, Iowa.
Taurean Smalls, Aaron Navarro and Olivia Rinaldi contributed.
The 62nd New York Film Festival opened at Lincoln Center on Friday, the return of what may be the best curated international film festival, featuring new works by such esteemed directors as Pedro Almodóvar, Mike Leigh, David Cronenberg, Paul Schrader, Steve McQueen, and Luca Guadagnino.
The festival, which runs through Oct. 14 at venues across New York City, showcases more than 100 films from 41 countries, including prize winners from the Cannes, Venice, Berlin, Sundance, Toronto and Locarno film festivals. Among the stars featured are Adrien Brody and Felicity Jones (“The Brutalist”), Daniel Craig (“Queer”), Richard Gere and Uma Thurman (“Oh, Canada”), Tilda Swinton and Julianne Moore (“The Room Next Door”), Saoirse Ronan (“Blitz”), Cate Blanchett (“Rumours”), and Naomi Watts and Bill Murray (“The Friend”).
Angelina Jolie stars as opera diva Maria Callas in the biopic “Maria,” directed by Pablo Larrain (“Jackie,” “Spencer”). “Emilia Perez,” a crime thriller/musical, won the best actress award at Cannes for its four lead performers: Zoe Saldaña, Selena Gomez, Karla Sofía Gascón and Adriana Paz. “A Traveller’s Needs” stars the great Isabelle Huppert as a French teacher in South Korea whose unconventional teaching methods involve speaking hardly any French words.
Gala screenings
Friday’s opening night presentation, “Nickel Boys,” is an adaptation of Colson Whitehead’s Pulitzer Prize-winning novel about a young Black student unjustly sent to a reform school in Florida, where he witnesses the cruel hypocrisies of the Jim Crow era. Directed by RaMell Ross (the Oscar-nominated documentary “Hale County This Morning, This Evening”), the film takes a subjective view of the characters’ journey into adulthood. It stars Ethan Herisse, Brandon Wilson, and Deveed Diggs.
To watch a trailer for “Nickel Boys” click on the video player below:
Other gala screenings include the festival’s centerpiece, “The Room Next Door.” Pedro Almodóvar’s first English-language feature, which won best film at the Venice Film Festival, stars Tilda Swinton and Julienne Moore as two old friends who reconnect over one’s desire to end her own life.
The festival’s closing night screening is Steve McQueen’s “Blitz,” starring Saoirse Ronan as a single mother separated from her child during the Germans’ bombing of London in World War II.
Other notable entries in the festival lineup include “Queer,” based on William S. Burroughs’ book and directed by Luca Guadagnino (“Call Me By Your Name”). It stars Daniel Craig as a gay American expatriate in 1940s Mexico City who begins a love affair with a preppy newcomer (Drew Starkey).
“All We Imagine As Light” (a grand prize-winner at Cannes) tells the story of the emotional bonds of a trio of nurses in Mumbai. Iranian emigree filmmaker Mohammad Rasoulof’s “The Seed of the Sacred Fig” explores the political divisions within the family of an Iranian judge. “Transamazonia” is centered on a woman who survived a plane crash in the Amazon jungle as a child and grows into a faith healer.
Jesse Eisenberg’s “A Real Pain” (which won a screenwriting award at Sundance) stars Eisenberg and Kieran Culkin as cousins reconnecting during a trip to the Polish hometown of their grandmother, a Holocaust survivor. In “The Friend,” Naomi Watts gains an unexpected inheritance from her deceased neighbor Bill Murray: a giant Great Dane.
Mike Leigh’s “Hard Truths” stars Marianne Jean-Baptiste (an Oscar nominee for “Secrets & Lies”) as a working-class woman struggling with physical and mental health problems. Guy Maddin, whose past films have been phantasmagorical flights of fantasy, returns to the festival with “Rumours,” in which world leaders at the G-7 Summit face an unusual brand of apocalypse.
Also playing: “The Damned,” a Civil War drama of Union soldiers in the Northwest frontier; “Jimmy,” which reimagines the life of writer-activist James Baldwin when he moves from the United States to Paris in 1948; from Japan, the dystopian drama “Happyend,” which examines the surveillance of citizens in a Tokyo high school; and Miguel Gomes, behind the 2015 triptych “Arabian Nights,” directs “Grand Tour,” an immersive, time-shifting trip across Southeast Asia.
Documentaries
Among the non-fiction films on tap are “Dahomey,” which traces the repatriation to Africa of cultural treasures that had been plundered by French colonial troops; “Suburban Fury,” which looks at the radicalization of Sara Jane Moore, a 45-year-old California woman and former FBI informant who attempted to assassinate President Gerald Ford; and the U.S. premiere of “Elton John: Never Too Late,” which explores the life and career of the pop-rock icon.
In “My Undesirable Friends,” Soviet Union-born filmmaker Julia Loktev returned to Moscow to make a documentary on independent journalism under Putin, just in time for the launch of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. Brett Story and Stephen Maing’s “Union” documents the formation of the Amazon Labor Union, following an historic vote at the company’s Staten Island warehouse.
Revivals and restorations
The festival will screen 4K restorations of the Clive Barker horror film “Hellraiser,” featuring Pinhead; Robert Bresson’s “Four Nights of a Dreamer”; Marguerite Duras’ film debut, the 1966 “La Musica”; John Hanson and Rob Nilsson’s 1978 indie film “Northern Lights,” about the rise of a populist movement in North Dakota in the early 20th century; and Frederick Wiseman’s 1981 documentary “Model,” which, at two hours, is short compared to Wiseman’s recent films.
Also being screened, from 1977, is Marva Nabili’s “The Sealed Soil,” the earliest surviving film directed by an Iranian woman.
Free talks
The festival will host free discussions with filmmakers. Among those scheduled are “Nickel Boys” director RaMell Ross and Barry Jenkins (Sept. 29); Alex Ross Perry and Andrei Ujică, director of the documentary “TWST/Things We Said Today” (Oct. 3); Sigrid Nunez, author of the source novels “The Friend” and “The Room Next Door” (Oct. 5); director Zeinabu Irene Davis and Madeleine Hunt-Ehrlich, of “The Ballad of Suzanne Césaire” (Oct. 6); “Grand Tour” director Miguel Gomes and Payal Kapadia (Oct. 9); and Julia Loktev and Roberto Minervini (Oct. 9).
The festival runs through Oct. 16 at Lincoln Center, with additional screenings at the Alamo Drafthouse Cinema on Staten Island, the Brooklyn Academy of Music, the Bronx Museum, and the Museum of the Moving Image in Queens.
Early highlights
Of festival entries screened at press time, a few highlights are reviewed below. [More reviews will be published as the festival continues.]
A24
“The Brutalist” (U.S. premiere)
Director and co-writer Brady Corbet’s taut post-war drama of a Hungarian architect trying to reinvent himself in America is a tale of refugees adrift in a so-called land of opportunity, where antisemitism lurks behind every welcome. Adrien Brody (“The Pianist”) plays László Tóth, whose arrival in Pennsylvania, and a chance commission through his assimilated cousin’s furniture business, sets him on a new path, one that plays like a dark, psychological character study from the 1970s. Tóth’s modern, brutalist style (which meets with much criticism), and his dogmatic beliefs in his own independence, both inflate and undermine his abilities to see the gargantuan project through to completion.
The 3.5-hour film (with intermission) is epic in its emotional weight, as Tóth sacrifices his family and personal ties in the service of his static, monumental vision. Matching Brody in the strength of performance is Felicity Jones (“The Theory of Everything”), excellent as Tóth’s wife, Erzsébet, whose physical infirmity only reinforces her steely temperament; and Guy Pearce (“Memento,” “The Hurt Locker”), magnetic as Harrison Lee Van Buren, a wealthy businessman and patron who views a Tóth commission as a worthy monument to his ideals and, ultimately, his corruption. It’s a film of big ideas and oversized egos, and of a society ready to crush both.
Shot in VistaVision, the picture screens Oct. 12 in 70mm, and Sept. 28 and Oct. 11 in 35mm. 215 mins., including 15-minute intermission. In English, Hungarian, Hebrew, Yiddish and Italian and English subtitles. An A24 release. Opens in theaters Dec. 20.
Neon
At first, Sean Baker’s sly and at times uproarious comic-drama of a Brooklyn sex worker who enters into a Cinderella romance and marriage with the flighty son of Russian oligarchs seems a slight choice for top prize at this year’s Cannes Film Festival. (Recent Palme d’Or winners have included the comparatively heavy “Anatomy of a Fall,” “Triangle of Sadness” and “Parasite.”) But Baker, whose previous films include “The Florida Project” and “Tangerine,” consistently upends our expectations. In part this is due to the performance of Mikey Madison, who plays Anora (preferred name Ani) as a woman older than her 25 years, but still young enough to believe in the sanctity of elopement. Baker also twists what we’d expect of movie Russian oligarchs; here, the brute Brighton Beach muscle they bring are little match against a street-smart girl who has a romantic core but isn’t averse to using hardball tactics. With Mark Eydelshteyn as Ani’s love, Ivan; Karren Karagulian as Ivan’s intemperate godfather; and Vache Tovmasyan as an Armenian enforcer who is not terribly effective at his job, aided by the standoffish and brooding Igor (Yura Borisov).
Screens Sept. 28, 29, Oct. 8. 138 mins. In English and Russian with English subtitles. A Neon release. Opens in theaters Oct. 18.
Rachel Szor
For years, Basel Adra, a videographer and son of Palestinian activists, has documented the ongoing efforts of Israeli military and settlers to drive Palestinian residents out of the West Bank villages of Masafer Yatta. His camera records bulldozers brought in to knock down houses and schools, forcing those who refuse to leave to erect homes in caves. Meanwhile, visiting journalist Yuval Abraham writes articles on the displacement at Masafer Yatta that, he hopes, people will actually read. But witnessing the destruction prompts depression, and a reassessment of the patience needed to overcome systemic injustice, and the limits of journalism. “No Other Land” was shot before Hamas’ Oct. 7 terrorist attack on Israel, so it plays like a prelude to further horror. But just before a recent screening, Basel posted on social media that his father had been kidnapped and detained by the Israeli military. The distressing story never really ends. Directed by Adra, Abraham, Hamdan Ballal and Rachel Szor, the film won the Documentary Award at the Berlin Film Festival.
Screens Sept. 29, Oct. 1, 5, 6. 95 mins. Arabic, English, and Hebrew with English subtitles. No distributor or release date has been announced.
Directed by Petra Costa (“The Edge of Democracy,” “Elena”), this engrossing documentary traces the growing influence of the Dominionist evangelical movement in Brazil, which in recent years has grown to 30% of the population — a voting block that has proved impossible for Brazilian politicians to ignore. Front-and-center of the film is televangelist Silas Malafaia, a charismatic pastor (with a thriving publishing business on the side) who has the ear of Jair Bolsonaro, a hard-right politician riding his faithful fans to the presidency. But the Brazilian government’s failures during the COVID pandemic — characterized by Bolsonaro dismissing his country’s high mortality rate by saying, “We will all die one day” — weakens the evangelicals’ hold on the nation’s top office. Costa dissects how the theology of apocalypse aimed at bringing forth the end times suits the agenda of some — hence the disturbingly familiar scenes of insurrection as rioters overtake Brazil’s Congress and Supreme Court after Bolsanaro loses his 2022 reelection bid.
Screens Sept. 29, 30. 110 mins. In Portuguese with English subtitles. Distributor and release date to be announced.
Watch a trailer for the 62nd New York Film Festival:
Americans in all of the states and the District of Columbia still have time to register to vote in the 2024 elections this November. But those who haven’t registered yet should sign up soon — the deadlines are coming as soon as early October in some states.
In most states, those who wish to vote have more than one option that makes it easier and more convenient to register or update their registration than in past years.
“The good news is that it’s easier to register than ever across the United States,” CBS News election law contributor David Becker told “CBS Mornings” in September.
All voters can check their registration status by going to vote.gov.
Voter registration options in each state
In addition to the traditional method of registering in person, many states now have online registration, same-day voter registration and automatic voter registration. Same-day voter registration enables people to vote on the same day that they register during early voting periods and in many states, even on Election Day.
About half the states offer automatic voter registration. This means individuals are automatically registered to vote when they go to specific government agencies, like the department of motor vehicles, and obtain a driver’s license or ID. Those who wish to opt out of automatic registration may do so.
Here’s a map that shows the registration options in each state:
Deadlines to register in person, by mail or online in each state
The deadlines for advance voter registration (as opposed to same-day registration) are coming up in some states in early October, with some as late as Election Day. In the map below, you can see the deadlines to register in person, by mail or online in your state:
States that have same-day registration
Nearly half the states, plus the District of Columbia, allow same-day registration on Election Day. Among the other variations on this kind of registration, there are also several states that have same-day registration periods that end before Election Day, but also offer same-day registration on Election Day.
Here are the states allowing same-day voter registration and their dates for the 2024 election:
- California: Oct. 22 to Nov. 5
- Colorado: Oct. 21 to Nov. 5
- Connecticut: Oct. 21 to Nov. 3, and Nov. 5
- District of Columbia: Oct. 28 to Nov. 3, and Nov. 5
- Hawaii: Oct. 22 to Nov. 5
- Idaho: Oct. 21 to Nov. 1, and Nov. 5
- Illinois Oct. 9 to Nov. 5
- Iowa: Oct. 22 to Nov. 5
- Maine: Oct. 7 to Oct. 31, and Nov. 5
- Maryland: Oct. 24 to Oct. 31, and Nov. 5
- Michigan: Oct. 22 to Nov. 5
- Minnesota: Sept. 20 to Nov. 5
- Montana: Oct. 8 to Nov. 5
- Nevada: Oct. 19 to Nov. 1, and Nov. 5
- New Hampshire: Nov. 5
- New Mexico: Oct. 8 to Nov. 2, and Nov. 5
- New York: Oct. 26
- North Carolina: Oct. 17 to Nov. 2
- North Dakota: Sep. 26 to Nov. 5
- Utah: Oct. 22 to Nov. 1, and Nov. 5
- Vermont: Sept. 23 to Nov. 5
- Virginia: Oct. 16 to Nov. 2, and Nov. 5
- Washington: Oct. 18 to Nov. 5
- Wisconsin: Oct. 22 to Nov. 1, and Nov. 5
- Wyoming: Oct. 22 to Nov. 5
A couple in Arkansas was arrested after they allegedly attempted to sell their 2-month-old baby for a six-pack of beer and a $1,000 cashier’s check, court documents say.
Darien Urban, 21, and Shalene Ehlers, 20, the baby’s parents, were arrested on Sept. 21 after the manager of a campground in Benton County contacted the local sheriff’s department to report an incident involving the couple, CBS affiliate WREG reported.
The person said the couple had written a letter granting custody of their baby to Cody Martin in exchange for money. The letter, signed by Urban and Ehlers, included a disclaimer saying, “There will be no changing y’all two’s minds and to never contact again,” WREG reported, citing an affidavit.
Responding troopers found the baby needed medical attention and called emergency medical services, who took the infant to a local hospital for evaluation. The child is now in the care of the Arkansas Department of Human Services.
According to the affidavit, multiple witnesses corroborated the attempted adoption. A deputy also reportedly obtained a cellphone video of Urban and Ehlers signing the contract with the man trying to purchase the baby.
Witnesses reported that a resident of the campground, identified in the affidavit as Ricky Crawford, had earlier in the day visited Urban and Ehlers and offered to take the baby for the night in exchange for several cans of beer, WREG reported.
Crawford, who appeared heavily intoxicated, confirmed that he had taken the baby from the couple and brought the infant to Martin.
Another witness told authorities they smelled a strong ammonia and fecal odor coming from the baby, who had a dirty diaper. She told the deputies that after changing the baby, she saw a severe diaper rash, blisters and swelling, which she documented with photographs.
According to the affidavit, also obtained by Law & Crime, Martin told detectives that he spoke to Ehlers about the reason for the potential adoption, and she said “it was not working having three dogs and a baby.”
Court documents say Martin told detectives he drafted the agreement for Urban and Ehlers to sign but clarified that no money was exchanged at that time. He said he would arrange for a cashier’s check for $1,000. The couple never received this payment.
The couple was arrested and face felony charges of endangering the welfare of a minor and attempting to negotiate the relinquishment of a minor for adoption.
Urban was released on a $5,000 bond on Sept. 24, while Ehlers remains in custody on a $30,000 bail.