Star Tribune
Record ocean temperatures likely to blame for Minnesota’s weird non-winter
To understand the record-breaking warmth this winter in Minnesota, scientists look to the oceans.
For the sixth straight year, surface temperatures of the world’s oceans set a new heat record in 2023, according to a study released this month from an international team of scientists. Temperatures soared past the prior record set in 2022 by nearly 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit, spurred by both climate change and a strong El Niño.
What happens in the Pacific Ocean is especially important to Minnesota, said John Abraham, a thermal-science expert at the University of St. Thomas and one of the lead scientists of the study.
“That’s because our weather comes from west to east,” he said. “As the atmosphere passes over the Pacific, it will pick up moisture and heat, and then it releases that moisture and heat over a place like Minnesota.”
December was the warmest in about 150 years of record-keeping for most of the state, according to Minnesota’s climatology office. A brief cold spell last week helped bring January temperatures closer to normal, but the month has still been hot. Lakes and ponds across the southern half of the state didn’t freeze until mid-January — the latest ice-ins recorded since climatologists started tracking in the 1970s. They have already begun to thaw. The warm winter will have a lasting impact on moose, ticks, deer and other wildlife and the lack of ice and warmer water will increase the likelihood of algae blooms and fish kills in the state’s lakes.
Strong El Niños typically drive weather patterns that often, but not always, trap cold air about 1,000 miles north of Minnesota and push moisture about 1,000 miles south. An El Niño began in May and is probably the reason this winter has been so dry, according to the state climatology office.
Climate change is really the story of warming oceans, Abraham said.
Carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases in the air keep heat from the sun from escaping to space, and instead reflect it back to the Earth. A tiny part of that excess heat warms the air, he said. A small portion melts polar ice and snow. The vast majority of it moves from the atmosphere into ocean water, slowly and steadily warming it.
The average surface temperature of the world’s oceans was about 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit warmer in the second half of 2023 than it was in 2022, which was itself a record breaking year. That may not sound like much of an increase, Abraham said, but the energy the oceans absorbed in order for heat to rise that much is “astounding.”
Imagine a time you were frustrated watching a pot of water boil, he said. But now imagine that pot is 1.25 miles deep and spans 70% of the Earth’s surface. It took 15 zettajoules of energy to create that extra half degree of heat, the study found. A zettajoule is a single joule times 10 to the 21st power, or a one with 21 zeros after it. For reference, the entire world uses about half of a zettajoule a year in its energy systems, Abraham said.
The excess energy from the heat in the oceans compared to 2022 is enough to power the world’s economies for 30 years. It’s enough to boil 2.3 billion Olympic-sized swimming pools, Abraham said. It’s the equivalent of setting off six atomic bombs every second of every day for a year, he said. And 2022 was already a record year, with a heat content that was 10 zettajoules higher than it was in 2021.
That excess energy and heat gets picked up by the atmosphere and supercharges weather systems around the world.
Ocean temperature records were gathered using data from both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the U.S. and China’s Institute of Atmospheric Physics. Records go back to the 1950s, when scientists would drop little torpedoes called expendable bathythermographs over the sides of boats to collect data as they descended. Starting in 2005, scientists started using “Argo floats,” which travel about 7,000 feet under the sea before floating back to the surface. Every stretch of ocean measured is showing a steady temperature increase.
The only answer is to drastically cut the use of greenhouse gases, to give heat a better chance to escape into space, Abraham said. Like a train slamming its brakes, even with massive cuts, ocean temperatures won’t stop increasing for the foreseeable future — there is already too much carbon in the air. But what really matters is leveling off the temperature increases, slowing the rate and finding a new normal.
If the world can keep the increase to 4 degrees Fahrenheit or less, that’s great, Abraham said. If average temperatures climb 5 degrees or more, the world will likely become one we don’t recognize.
Star Tribune
Long Prairie, MN school board dismisses its superintendent, the latest controversy in this small town
LONG PRAIRIE, MINN. — The school district superintendent dressed up as the school mascot, Thor, on football nights. He read the graduation address in both English and Spanish. He even set up office hours in the cafeteria, granting easier approachability to students.
But now, two months into the school year, Daniel Ludvigson is gone. Or, rather, “on special assignment,” according to the terminology of the Long Prairie-Grey Eagle School Board, which voted 4-3 earlier this month to remove him as superintendent. The move came weeks after voting to not renew his contract, which expires at the end of the school year in June.
Four board members — two of whom voted to oust Ludvigson, including Board Chair Kelly Lemke — are up for re-election next week.
The dismissal is the latest blow in this central Minnesota community on the edge of the prairie. Over the last nine months, the town of 3,400 residents and seat of Todd County has lost its mayor, a city manager, two school board members, and now its superintendent.
Students walked out earlier this month in support of Ludvigson. Signs in support of Ludvigson can be seen across town on the lawns of apparent Democrats and Republicans alike. And last week, hundreds packed the American Legion off Hwy. 71 to eat beef sandwiches and sign support letters for Ludvigson, who only swung by to pick up his child for hockey practice.
In a time of great divide in America, this fight has nothing to do with politics.
“You’ve got Harris buttons and Trump hats side-by-side, arm-in-arm,” said Amanda Hinson, a former local newspaper reporter who is concerned the board is not being upfront about why they placed Ludvigson on special assignment. “We want transparency in our government.”
Lawn signs around Long Prairie, Minn., now include people weighing in on the dismissal of Superintendent Daniel Ludvigson by the school board. (Christopher Vondracek)
School board members say Ludvigson has repeatedly shown he is not ready for the prime time of a school district bigger than the one in central North Dakota he arrived from two years ago. They have twice disciplined Ludvigson, but did not state the reason for placing him on “special assignment,” beyond insinuating that staff are fearful to raise official complaints.
Star Tribune
Snow and rain on Halloween
Rain and potentially heavy snow are on tap Thursday around the Twin Cities, just before families set out for Halloween trick-or-treating.
Temperatures were expected to drop throughout the day, creating conditions for flurries. A winter weather advisory is in effect from 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. covering the Twin Cities metro area and parts of south-central Minnesota. Steady rain drenched the Twin Cities on Thursday, making for a soggy morning commute.
“As colder air begins to move in this morning, the rain will transition to heavy snow from west to east with snowfall rates of an inch per hour at times into early afternoon,” the National Weather Service in Chanhassen said in a weather advisory.
The Twin Cities and surrounding areas could get between 2 and 4 inches of snow, according to the weather service. The winter weather advisory is expected to affect Anoka, Chisago, Hennepin, Ramsey, Scott, Washington and Le Sueur counties.
It’s unclear how much of the snow will actually stick, with warm surface temperatures likely leading to melting on contact in many areas.
“Exact totals will depend on snowfall rate, surface temperatures, and melting — which increases uncertainty with the snow forecast,” the weather service said in an early Thursday briefing.
“Thundersnow possible!” the weather service emphasized.
The good news for Halloween revelers is that the snow and rain are expected to wrap up in time for trick-or-treating, though temperatures will remain in the 30s with a sharp windchill.
Star Tribune
Alcohol use suspected by off-duty deputy in injury crash in Afton, patrol says
An off-duty Washington County sheriff’s deputy caused a head-on crash while under the influence of alcohol and injured a couple in the other vehicle, officials said.
The crash occurred about 10:40 a.m. Sunday in Afton on Hwy. 95 at Scenic Lane, the Minnesota State Patrol said.
Campbell Johnston Blair, 58, of Hastings, was heading north in his Subaru Crosstrek, crossed into the opposite lane and collided with a southbound Ford Expedition, the patrol said.
Blair and the other vehicle’s occupants, 38-year-old Erik Robert Sward and 36-year-old Heather Lynn Sward, both of Lake Elmo, were taken to Regions Hospital with non-critical injuries, according to the patrol.
The patrol noted the alcohol use by Blair was involved in the crash.
Blair, who was driving a private vehicle at the time of the crash while off-duty, has been a deputy with the Sheriff’s Office since 2020 and is currently assigned to our Court Security Unit.
The Sheriff’s Office has been asked for reaction to the crash involving one of its deputies.