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Will mortgage rates drop below 6% in 2024? Here’s what some experts think
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The US economy is in a tricky spot. To close out 2023, fourth quarter GDP measured at a robust 3.3% annual growth rate, but inflation remains above the Fed’s desired 2% target, so the central bank has yet to cut interest rates. Still, many expect that rate cuts will come this year as the economy and inflation cool down more. For the mortgage market, that could also mean that rates come down.
Already, 30-year mortgage rates have fallen from recent highs. While they reached approximately 8% in October 2023, they now average 6.63% as of the beginning of February 2024, according to Freddie Mac.
But what will happen the rest of the year? Below, we’ll look at three possible mortgage rate scenarios.
If you’re in the market to buy a home then start by exploring your mortgage rate options here now.
Will mortgage rates drop below 6% in 2024?
Here are three possible scenarios for mortgage rates this year, according to the experts we spoke to.
Mortgage rates will drop below 6%
Mortgage rates could continue to trend downward this year, especially once the Fed starts cutting the federal funds rate.
“Mortgage rates will go down in 2024. How much and when depends on the economy and inflation. I believe that we will see rates trending to 6% in the summer, perhaps not until late summer,” says Melissa Cohn, regional VP at William Raveis Mortgage. After that, “I believe that rates will drop below 6% and stay below 6% for the year.”
Some experts predict an even larger drop, though still not at pandemic-era levels.
“I believe they will fall to 4.25%,” says Dan Green, CEO at Homebuyer.com. “Inflation is solved, lenders are competitive, and the bond market is finding its health.”
See how low of a mortgage rate you could get now.
Mortgage rates will drop somewhat but not below 6%
While some people think that mortgage rates will fall further, not everyone is convinced that they’ll drop significantly from their current levels. As mentioned, GDP remains strong, and lower rates tend to coincide with a weakening economy, which might not occur.
Shannon Feick, co-owner and co-founder at ASAP Properties, LLC, says she’s “confident that the relatively strong economy will likely prevent rates from falling below 6% in 2024, but with inflation cooling, mortgage rates will fall slightly from their current levels.”
Still, it’s possible that the economy’s health and inflation rate get thrown off by unexpected events, like how geopolitical conflicts have caused oil price swings, which can ultimately influence interest rate decisions.
“I do believe that curveballs like geopolitical events or significant shifts in the job market could alter this forecast, but only by a small amount,” says Feick.
Mortgage rates will stay the same
Another scenario could be that rates end up staying essentially the same, with mid-6% interest rates persisting.
“I think rates will stay flat on average this year, meaning that they will stay in the mid-6s, which is where we dropped to at the end of the year, going into 2024,” says Sam Sharp, executive VP of mortgage lending at Guaranteed Rate.
It’s also possible that rates go higher, but Sharp thinks that the current levels seem to be working.
“I believe that the markets have tested their threshold. When rates capped over 8% the housing market saw a steep decline. As soon as rates dropped into the mid-6s we saw a quick change, and this looks to be a sweet spot in the current environment,” he says.
“Not only is this a level that buyers seem more comfortable with, but I feel this is a good baseline for some sellers, and their motivation is what we need to create a balanced housing market,” explains Sharp.
Learn more about today’s mortgage rates online here.
The bottom line
It’s hard to predict exactly where mortgage interest rates will go in 2024, as much depends on factors like the state of the economy and how the Fed responds to inflation. But if you can afford to buy a home now at current levels, you might be better off doing so for two main reasons.
One, it’s hard to say how long you’ll have to wait for rates to drop — if they do at all — and you might not want to put your home search on hold indefinitely. Two, a decrease in mortgage rates could increase competition among homebuyers, as those who have been waiting for rates to drop might jump in, thus complicating the process.
However, one advantage of waiting to buy a home could be that more sellers jump in, too. Some sellers have been reluctant to give up their homes and then buy a new one at high mortgage rates. But if rates do drop, or if sellers simply get more accustomed to current rates as the new normal, then that could increase inventory.
So, you’ll have to weigh these factors, along with looking at your finances and the local conditions in your desired area to see what makes the most sense for you. And while you probably don’t want to bank on it, mortgage refinancing could be an option down the road if rates drop further.
Start exploring your current mortgage rate options here.
NEW YORK — Drones have been banned from flying over several New Jersey towns, the Federal Aviation Administration confirms to CBS News.
The FAA order covers nearly two dozen towns, including Jersey City, Harrison, Edison, Bayonne and Camden. It will be in effect until Jan. 17.
The order says no unmanned aircraft can operate below 400 feet within one nautical mile of the airspace specified in each area. Additionally, it allows the government to use “deadly force” against the drones if they pose an “imminent security threat.”
“Pilots of aircraft that do not adhere to the procedures in the national security requirements for aircraft operations contained in this section may be intercepted, and/or detained and interviewed by federal, state, or local law enforcement or other government personnel,” the order reads in part.
Several of the zones are centered around infrastructure, like power substations. Others cover areas like the Kearny, New Jersey port and airspace around military installations like Joint Base McGuire-Dix-Lakehurst in South Jersey, or airports such as Newark-Liberty International Airport.
Earlier this month, the Florham Park, New Jersey police chief told residents drone sightings had been reported above “water reservoirs, electric transmission lines, rail stations, police departments, and military installations.”
Where are drones banned in New Jersey?
North Jersey:
- Cedar Grove
- Bridgewater
- North Brunswick
- Metuchen
- South Brunswick
- Edison
- Branchburg
- Sewaren
- Jersey City
- Harrison, Essex County
- Elizabeth
- Bayonne
- Clifton
- Kearny
Central Jersey:
South Jersey:
- Burlington
- Evesham
- Camden
- Gloucester City
- Westampton
- Winslow
- Hancocks Bridge, Salem County
See the full order from the FAA here.
Mysterious drones over New Jersey and beyond
Drones sightings have been reported all month long, first over Morris County, New Jersey and then over several other East Coast states.
Federal, state and local officials have been demanding more information about where they are coming from and what’s being done to stop them. The FBI is leading the investigation and tells CBS News it has received thousands of tips.
While the White House says there is no known threat, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy recently sent a letter to President Joe Biden asking for more federal resources.
On Wednesday, a push from Sen. Chuck Schumer to give local law enforcement more ways to track drones was blocked in the Senate.
Check back soon for the latest updates on this developing story.
contributed to this report.
Two highway crashes in southeastern Afghanistan killed a combined total of 50 people and injured 76, a government spokesman said Thursday.
One was a collision between a bus and an oil tanker on the Kabul-Kandahar highway late Wednesday, said Hafiz Omar, a spokesman for the governor of Ghazni province.
The other, also late Wednesday and in the same province, was in a different area of the same highway, which connects the Afghan capital with the south.
MOHAMMAD FAISAL NAWEED / AFP via Getty Images
Hamidullah Nisar, the provincial head of the Taliban-run Information and Culture Department, told the Reuters news agency the other accident involved a cargo truck, adding that some of those injured in both collisions were in critical condition.
Omar said many of the injured were taken to hospitals in Ghazni and patients in more serious condition were transferred to Kabul. Women and children were among the casualties, he said.
Authorities were in the process of handing over the bodies to families, Omar said.
MOHAMMAD FAISAL NAWEED / AFP via Getty Images
Crash survivor Abdullah Khan, who was being treated in a Ghazni hospital, said he didn’t know how many people had either died or were injured.
“I got out from the bus myself and heard the sound of moaning. There was blood everywhere. Some people had head injuries and others had hurt their legs.”
MOHAMMAD FAISAL NAWEED / AFP via Getty Images
Traffic accidents are common in Afghanistan, mainly due to poor road conditions and driver carelessness.
MOHAMMAD FAISAL NAWEED / AFP via Getty Images
CBS News
France’s President Emmanuel Macron tours cyclone-battered Mayotte, meets survivors pleading for help
Mamoudzou, Mayotte — France’s President Emmanuel Macron traveled Thursday to the Indian Ocean archipelago of Mayotte to survey the devastation that Cyclone Chido wrought across the French territory as thousands of people tried to cope without bare essentials such as water or electricity.
“Mayotte is demolished,” an airport security agent told Macron as soon as he stepped off the plane.
The security agent, Assane Haloi, said her family members, including small children, are without water or electricity and have nowhere to go after the strongest cyclone in nearly a century ripped through the French territory of Mayotte off the coast of Africa on Saturday.
KWEZI/AFP/Getty
“There’s no roof, there’s nothing. No water, no food, no electricity. We can’t even shelter, we are all wet with our children covering ourselves with whatever we have so that we can sleep,” she said, asking for emergency aid.
Macron got a helicopter tour of the damage and was to spend Thursday night on the far-flung French territory. After flying over the destruction, he headed to the hospital in Mamoudzou, Mayotte’s capital, to meet medical staff and patients.
Wearing a traditional Mayotte scarf on his white shirt and tie, sleeves rolled to the elbows, the French president listened to people asking for help. A member of the medical staff told him some people hadn’t had a drink of water for 48 hours.
Some residents also expressed agony at not knowing about those who have died or are still missing, partly because of the Muslim practice of burying the dead within 24 hours.
LUDOVIC MARIN/POOL/AFP/Getty
“We’re dealing with open-air mass graves,” Mayotte lawmaker Estelle Youssoufa told reporters. “There are no rescuers, no one has come to recover the buried bodies.”
Some survivors and aid groups have described hasty burials and the stench of bodies.
Macron acknowledged that many who died hadn’t been reported. He said phone services will be repaired “in the coming days” so that people can report their missing loved ones.
French authorities have said at least 31 people died and more than 1,500 people were injured, more than 200 critically. But it’s feared hundreds or even thousands of people have died in total.
Abdou Houmadou, 27, said emergency aid was needed immediately, not Macron’s presence.
“Mr. President, what I’d like to tell you… is I think the spending you made from Paris to Mayotte would have been better spent to help the people,” he said.
Another resident, Ahamadi Mohammed, said Macron’s visit “is a good thing because he’ll be able to see by himself the damage.”
“I think that we’ll then get significant aid to try and get the island back on its feet,” the 58-year-old said.
LUDOVIC MARIN/POOL/AFP/Getty
Macron’s office said four tons of food and medical aid, as well as additional rescuers, were aboard the president’s flight. A navy ship was due to arrive in Mayotte on Thursday with another 180 tons of aid and equipment, according to the French military.
People living in a large slum on the outskirts of Mamoudzou were some of the hardest hit by the cyclone. Many lost their houses, some lost friends.
Nassirou Hamidouni sheltered in his house when the cyclone hit.
His neighbor was killed when his house collapsed on him and his six children. Hamidouni and others dug through the rubble to reach them.
The 28-year-old father of five is now trying to rebuild his own house, which was also destroyed.
He believes the death toll is much higher than what’s officially being reported, given the severity of what he lived through.
“It was very hard,” he said.
Mayotte, located in the Indian Ocean between mainland Africa’s east coast and northern Madagascar, is France’s poorest territory.
The cyclone devastated entire neighborhoods and many people ignored the warnings, thinking the storm wouldn’t be so extreme.
Mayotte has more than 320,000 residents according to the French government. Most are Muslim and French authorities have estimated another 100,000 migrants live there.
Mayotte is the only part of the Comoros archipelago that voted to remain a part of France in a 1974 referendum.
Over the last decade, the French territory has seen a massive influx of migrants from the neighboring islands – the independent nation of Comoros, which is one of the world’s poorest countries.
