Star Tribune
Most ‘excess deaths’ during pandemic were COVID
An analysis of mortality statistics suggests the death count in the United States from COVID-19 is higher than the 1.1 million officially linked to the disease, according to new University of Minnesota research.
A U sociologist teamed up with public health researchers in Boston and Philadelphia to analyze excess deaths — mortality from natural causes that surpasses historical norms. They found a pattern that only makes sense if COVID played a key role. Excess deaths not ascribed to COVID almost always occurred at the beginning of pandemic waves, and then disappeared when those waves reached peak levels of illness, the researchers found.
“If these excess natural cause deaths had nothing to do with COVID, you would probably see them happening throughout this period, irrespective of when the COVID waves are,” said Elizabeth Wrigley-Field, the U sociologist and demographer who coauthored the study.
The results were published in a prestigious science journal, the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, and argue that many of the 162,000 excess deaths assigned to other causes during the first 30 months of the pandemic should actually be tied to COVID. Exactly how many isn’t specified.
The accuracy of COVID death reporting remains divisive, even after the federal COVID public health emergency ended last spring. Donald Trump as president in 2020 had questioned whether doctors were inflating COVID death counts to obtain more federal relief money. Some lawmakers in Minnesota early in the pandemic questioned whether the state’s death toll was inflated by as much as 40%.
The latest findings come amid a decline in COVID activity, following an increase in illnesses driven by holiday gatherings and the fast-spreading JN.1 coronavirus variant that made up 78% of infections at the end of 2023. Testing in wastewater treatment plants is showing the lowest viral levels in Minnesota since Thanksgiving.
The most likely explanation for non-COVID deaths surging right before pandemic waves is that people weren’t worrying about COVID as much or testing for it at those times. So deaths related to the infectious disease were missed, the study concluded. Testing then rapidly increased as the pandemic waves became apparent, which reduced the share of excess deaths attributed to other causes.
Minnesota’s official count was updated Thursday to 15,776 COVID-19 deaths, including 220 deaths in 2024 that were mostly among people 75 and older.
The latest research suggests that Minnesota’s total is close to the mark; throughout COVID waves, far fewer of the state’s excess deaths were attributed to causes other than the infectious disease. Federal estimates show that COVID caused almost 4,000 more deaths than expected in the winter 2020 pandemic wave in Minnesota, for example, compared to 150 more deaths than expected from other causes.
The Minnesota Department of Health for the first three years of the pandemic had workers verify that deaths linked to COVID on death certificates were actually caused by the infectious disease. The state halted that costly process at the start of 2023 and started counting all deaths as related to COVID when people had tested positive for the infectious disease and their death certificates listed it as a cause, said Lydia Fess, an epidemiologist in the Health Department’s emerging infectious diseases section.
Internal research showed little change with this switch, and that COVID death reporting remained consistent across age, race and other demographic categories, she said.
Other factors beyond underreporting of COVID could have resulted in more excess deaths from non-COVID causes during pandemic waves. Minnesota hospital leaders warned during the pandemic that overcrowding threatened to delay or worsen care and increased risks of harm for all patients. However, the authors of the latest study noted that excess deaths from non-COVID causes tended to decline at the peak of pandemics, when the consequences of hospital overcrowding should have been at their worst.
The authors called for more consistency in the U.S. system of reporting deaths, because excess deaths from non-COVID causes appeared inflated in some rural counties and regions of the country where political appointees and others lacking medical training were responsible for declaring official causes. Those officials may have allowed political views about COVID and the nation’s pandemic response to influence their determinations, or have been persuaded by family members who didn’t want COVID listed on death certificates, they wrote.
Northeastern states such as Massachusetts and Rhode Island attributed so many of their excess deaths during the pandemic to COVID that it raises the potential of an overcount. However, Wrigley-Field said those states probably had fewer deaths from non-COVID causes, because their aggressive responses to the pandemic reduced the threat of other infections such as influenza.
A 19-year-old driver trying to get around slower vehicles collided head-on with an SUV in Wright County and killed one person and injured several others, officials said Thursday.
SUV passenger Janice Evelyn Johnson, 92, of Arden Hills, died Monday at HCMC from injuries she suffered in the collision on Oct. 22 in Monticello Township on County Road 37 near County Road 12, the Sheriff’s Office said in a search warrant affidavit filed in Hennepin County District Court.
The driver and two other people in the SUV survived their injuries, according to the affidavit, which the Sheriff’s Office filed to collect Johnson’s medical records at HCMC as part of its investigation.
According to the affidavit:
Deputies arrived at the crash scene and spoke with the car’s driver, Christian Kabunangu, of Brooklyn Park, who said he was heading west on County Road 37 and found himself behind two vehicles traveling below the speed limit.
“He was late for work, so he decided to pass them,” the affidavit read. Kabunangu said he saw the oncoming SUV and estimated it was about a half-mile down the road.
As he attempted to pass one of the slower vehicles, he explained, the other driver “sped up, preventing him from getting back into the westbound lane,” the filing continued.
As the Honda drew near, he swerved to the left, but the SUV did the same and they collided.
Star Tribune
University of Minnesota researchers find that native plants can beat invasive buckthorn on their own turf.
If the invasive buckthorn that is strangling the life out of Minnesota’s forest floor has a weakness, it is right now, in the shortening daylight of the late fall.
With a little help and planning, certain native plants have the best chance of beating buckthorn back and helping to eradicate it from the woods, according to new research from the University of Minnesota.
The sprawling bush has been one of the most formidable invasive species to take root in Minnesota since it was brought from Europe in the mid-1800s. It was prized as an ornamental privacy hedge. All the attributes that make buckthorn good at that job — dense thick leaves that stay late into the fall, toughness and resilience to damage and pruning, unappealing taste to wildlife and herbivores — have allowed it to thrive in the wild.
It grows fast and thick, out-competing the vast majority of native plants and shrubs for sunlight and then starving them under its shade. It creates damaging feedback loops, providing ideal habitat and calcium-rich food for invasive earthworms, which in turn kill off and uproot native plants. That leaves even less competition for buckthorn to take root, said Mike Schuster, a researcher for the university’s Department of Forest Resources.
When it takes over a natural area, buckthorn creates a “green desert,” Schuster said. “All that’s left is just a perpetual hedge, with little biodiversity.”
Since the 1990s, when the spread became impossible to ignore, Minnesota foresters, park managers and cities have spent millions of dollars a year trying to beat it back. They’ve used chainsaws and trimmers, poisons and herbicides, and even goats for hire. The buckthorn almost always grows back within a few years.
It’s been so pervasive that a conventional wisdom formed that buckthorn seeds could survive dormant in the soil for up to six years. That thought has led to a sort of fatalism: even if the plant were entirely removed from a property there would be a looming threat that it would sprout back, Schuster said.
But there is nothing special about buckthorn seeds. They only survive for a year or two.
Eden Prairie Eagles (6-3) at Maple Grove Crimson (9-0), 7 p.m.
Jim says: Maple Grove faithful are understandably jittery about getting Eden Prairie this early in the playoffs, but they should trust their eyes. The Crimson are loaded, with quality playmakers at every turn, like safety/receiver Dylan Vokal. Eden Prairie is built for games like this, but while the Eagles will keep things tight for awhile, Maple Grove will pull away in the second half, leading to a seismic sigh-of-relief from northwest metro. The pick: Maple Grove 35, Eden Prairie 21
David says: Eden Prairie’s time, however decorated an success-filled, is done and over. Provided the Crimson are able to take it. Maple Grove is capable of success as long as players don’t make the moment too big. Former coach Matt Lombardi cracked the code. What about his replacement, Adam Spurrell? The pick: Maple Grove 21, Eden Prairie 14
Edina Hornets (7-2) at Eagan Wildcats (5-3), 7 p.m.
Jim says: On paper, this leans toward an Edina victory. The Hornets have top-end talent on offense (QB Mason West, WR Meyer Swinney), an under-appreciated defense and a season-opening 35-14 victory over Eagan. But the Wildcats are resilient and don’t back down from anyone. Quarterback Brooklyn Evans is adept at running the Wildcats option offense and will keep them in the game. The pick: Edina 28, Eagan 15
David says: Tempting as it is to pick against Edina and revel in another office cake party, let’s go with the Hornets in this one. Expect an improved Eagan team to keep Edina within reach, however. The pick: Edina 21, Eagan 20
Alexandria Cardinals (7-2) at Moorhead Spuds (9-0), 7 p.m.
Jim says: Alexandria came oh-so-close to beating Moorhead on Oct. 11, falling 36-34 when a game-winning field goal went wide-left. While the Cardinals hoped for this rematch, Moorhead has the look of a team on a mission. Outside of the head-to-head matchup, Moorhead dominated every other opponent with a series of 30-point plus victories. No one mashes the Spuds. The pick: Moorhead 44, Alexandria 34
David says: The Game of the Year, Part II. Only thing to make this more juicy would be an upset. Is Alexandria up to that task? I don’t have the courage to go out on that limb in this space. The pick: Moorhead 42, Alexandria 24
Andover Huskies (7-2) at Elk River Elks (8-1), 7 p.m.
Jim says: Another highly anticipated rematch. Andover handed mistake-prone Elk River it’s only loss, 47-31, on Sept. 20. With three lost fumbles, Elks’ coach Steve Hamilton called it the worst game they’ve played in five years. You can bet they’re itching to prove they’re better than they showed that night. The pick: Elk River 49, Andover 37
David says: Bet the over when these two teams clash. Andover’s quarterback Joseph Mapson is a much more polished and proven signal caller that he was in late September. The Pick: Andover 49, Elk River 48.
