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Could the Arctic be ice-free within a decade? What the latest science says
The Arctic could be “ice-free” in just a few years, scientists have found. Here’s what that means.
The region, which sits at the northernmost point of the globe, is a unique ecosystem characterized by areas of permanent snow and ice. But, if the Earth continues to face damaging levels of emissions, the Arctic could see “summer days with practically no sea ice as early as the next couple of years,” a new peer-reviewed study out of the University of Colorado Boulder revealed.
“The first ice-free day in the Arctic could occur over 10 years earlier than previous projections,” the study, that was published Tuesday, added.
Sebnem Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images
What is an ice-free day?
To scientists, an ice-free day does not mean there is absolutely no ice in the water. Instead, the term is measured by the quantity of ice in the water below a certain threshold.
According to researchers, the ocean is ice-free when it has less than 1 million square kilometers, or 386,000 square miles, of ice. That number represents less than 20% of the region’s minimum ice cover in the 1980s.
When will the Arctic be ice-free?
“The first ice-free day in the Arctic could occur over 10 years earlier than previous projections,” the study found.
Researchers predict that the first ice-free day will take place on a late August or early September day between the 2020s and 2030s under all emissions scenarios.
By the middle of this century, scientists say it’s likely the Arctic will have an ocean without floating ice for a whole month, during a September — when the region experiences its lowest amount of ice coverage.
By the end of the century, the ice-free season could span several months in a year, even in winter months if high emissions become the norm.
What is causing sea ice loss?
Greenhouse gasses, according to study researcher Alexandra Jahn, associate professor of atmospheric and oceanic sciences at CU Boulder.
When snow and ice cover decrease, the heat absorbed from the sun by the ocean increases. As a result, ice melt and warming in the Arctic gets worse.
What happens if the Arctic loses its ice?
The loss of sea ice can disrupt the Arctic ecosystem in a number of ways, the study outlines.
Arctic animals, like polar bears and seals, could face challenges as they rely on ice for their survival. Additionally, non-native fish of invasive species may migrate to the warmer waters, having an impact on Arctic sea life.
The warming of water could also pose a threat to human communities living near the coastal region — as the ice melts and ocean waves grow larger, the coast could see dangerous erosion.
Can the loss of sea ice be prevented?
Scientists do say there is hope for preserving the Arctic for as long as possible.
“Even if ice-free conditions are unavoidable, we still need to keep our emissions as low as possible to avoid prolonged ice-free conditions,” Jahn said.
If things continue as is, with intermediate emissions, the Arctic may only become ice-free for a few months, from August to October, researchers found. But, if things shift to the highest emissions scenario, the Arctic could be ice-free for up to nine months late this century.
“This would transform the Arctic into a completely different environment,” Jahn said, “From a white summer Arctic to a blue Arctic.”
The study also notes that “the Arctic is resilient and can return quickly if the atmosphere cools down.”
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Kamala Harris will speak with “60 Minutes” tomorrow. Here’s what to know for the interview.
Voters will get the chance to hear from Vice President Kamala Harris on Monday as she presents her case for why she should be president in a “60 Minutes” election special.
For decades, “60 Minutes” has featured both Republican and Democratic nominees for presidents, but this year, former President Donald Trump backed out after previously indicating he would be on the show. Correspondent Scott Pelley, who’d been set to interview Trump, will instead travel to Arizona’s Maricopa County, home to more than 60% of Arizona’s voters and a critical battleground in a key swing state.
One thing is certain about the election; with the U.S. deeply involved in both the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, whoever wins on Nov. 5 will become a wartime president.
What Harris will discuss
Israel’s war started one year ago after Hamas launched a surprise terror attack and correspondent Bill Whitaker will discuss the ongoing war with Harris.
Harris will also discuss the economy, immigration, her record as vice president and the differences between herself and Trump.
Democratic vice presidential candidate Gov. Tim Walz will also appear.
Whitaker joined the Democratic ticket on the campaign trail this week to gain insight into their platform’s priorities and values, and what the candidates believe voters should know.
Why Trump pulled out of the “60 Minutes” interview
Leading up to the candidate hour, Trump, through campaign spokespeople, was the first candidate to accept the “60 Minutes” request to be interviewed for the special, according to CBS News. It had been agreed that both candidates would receive equal time during the broadcast.
Trump last sat down with 60 Minutes in 2020. He walked out during the interview with Lesley Stahl. Trump referenced the incident on Tuesday night at a Milwaukee press conference when asked about his decision not to participate in the Oct. 7 “60 Minutes” election special.
“Well, right now, I went to – they came to me and would like me to do an interview, but first I want to get an apology, because the last time I did an interview with them, if you remember, they challenged me on the computer,” Trump said. “They said the ‘laptop from hell’ was from Russia, and I said it wasn’t from Russia. It was from Hunter, and I never got an apology, so I’m sort of waiting. I’d love to do ’60 Minutes.’ I do everything.”
The Republican nominee for president emphasized that he felt he was owed an apology from “60 Minutes.”
“Let’s see if they do it. I wouldn’t mind doing 60,” Trump continued. “I’ve done ’60 Minutes’ a lot.”
In a statement on Tuesday, Trump campaign communications director Steven Cheung said that Trump’s team had not agreed to an interview.
“Fake News,” Cheung said in a post on X. “60 Minutes begged for an interview, even after they were caught lying about Hunter Biden’s laptop back in 2020. There were initial discussions, but nothing was ever scheduled or locked in. They also insisted on doing live fact checking, which is unprecedented.”
Previous Trump, Harris appearances on 60 Minutes
Trump previously sat down with “60 Minutes'” Mike Wallace in 1985, Pelley in 2015 and Lesley Stahl twice in 2016, first in July of that year and then again in November of 2016. He also spoke with Stahl again in 2018 and 2020.
Harris previously sat down with Whitaker last year. She also was interviewed by Norah O’Donnell, “CBS Evening News” anchor and “60 Minutes” contributing correspondent, in 2020.
