President Biden will touch on a wide range of issues and policy priorities in his State of the Union address Thursday night, and he will need to thread the needle on his track record of climate change legislation, environmental protection and energy policy. The stakes for climate change couldn’t be higher than they are in the 2024 presidential election, and Mr. Biden and former President Donald Trump couldn’t stand farther apart on the issue if they tried.

Public opinion on climate change

Americans who think global warming is happening outnumber those who think it is not happening by a ratio of nearly 5 to 1, according to the latest findings of the “Climate Change in the American Mind” national survey that is regularly conducted by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication. Additionally, the survey found:

• 52% of Americans think extreme weather poses either a “high” (16%) or “moderate” (36%) risk to their community over the next 10 years.
• 65% of Americans say they are at least “somewhat worried” about global warming. This includes 29% who say they are “very worried.”

And in a CBS News poll in April 2023, two-thirds said climate change needs to be addressed in the coming years, including more than half who think action is necessary right now. 

Biden’s messaging on climate goals and achievements

While climate change may not be the most pressing concern for voters, research has found that the issue can influence the outcome of an election, and Mr. Biden has an interest in effectively selling his climate accomplishments to the electorate. Although the bar is low, Mr. Biden has signed more climate legislation, but according to an August 2023 Washington Post-University of Maryland poll, 57% of Americans disapprove of how Mr. Biden has handled climate change. 

That survey also found only 3 in 10 Americans know much about the IRA, or Inflation Reduction Act, a law signed in 2022 that included major investments in responding to global warming.

Connection between climate action and economic growth

Mr. Biden can tout a track record on passing climate change legislation that has helped reduce emissions and set the country on a path towards a green energy transition. 

Record job growth, low unemployment and a stronger economy are due in part to the climate and clean energy investments implemented under his watch. One analysis found that policies implemented under the IRA have created more than 100,000 jobs in 41 states, with many of the biggest beneficiaries of jobs and economic investment being red states. In fact, more than 80% of large-scale clean energy and semiconductor manufacturing provided by the IRA and CHIPS Act are destined for Republican congressional districts, according to analysis from the Financial Times.

Gaining the trust of climate voters

A recent study from CU Boulder’s Center for Environmental Futures found that personal views on climate change were one of the strongest predictors of voting behavior in 2020 — not only among Democrats, but also with independents and moderate Republicans. Mr. Biden will need all those votes again in his effort to hold off Trump to win a second term. 

A major problem for him is that many of those climate voters who helped secure a 2020 Biden victory are seething over oil drilling and gas pipeline approvals by his administration. In fact, the Biden administration has kept pace with Trump’s when it comes to approving oil and gas drilling permits on public land during his first three years in office, according to federal data. While he may have paused the review of new terminals to export liquefied natural gas in January, LNG exports have grown 39% under the Biden presidency and made the United States the largest LNG exporter in the world. 

While it might seem that Mr. Biden’s support for drilling projects should entice voters who support America’s energy independence, it also alienates the environmentalists who were a core part of his winning coalition in 2020. Even social media influencers who helped energize the youth vote in 2020 are now suggesting their followers skip the 2024 election due to his decisions on fossil fuels as well as his response to the war in Gaza. One of the challenges for his reelection bid will be to find a way to bring those voters back to the table.