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D.C’s cherry blossoms just hit their earliest peak bloom in 20 years. Here’s why scientists say it’ll keep happening earlier.
The iconic pink and white blossoms that transform Washington, D.C. at the beginning of spring have officially hit their earliest peak bloom recorded in at least 20 years. It’s one of the earliest days it’s happened in the area on record – and experts say it will likely keep shifting earlier.
Peak bloom occurs when 70% of the Yoshino cherry blossoms planted around D.C. open up. According to the National Park Service, this usually happens between the last week of March and the first week of April. From 2004 to 2023, the annual peak mostly occurred between March 25 and April 10, with a few exceptions where it happened as early as March 20.
The service predicted on its website that peak bloom would occur this year between March 23 and March 26, but in an update on Sunday, the service’s National Mall and Memorial Parks posted an update on social media.
“PEAK BLOOM! PEAK BLOOM! PEAK BLOOM! Did we say PEAK BLOOM?!” the agency said. “The blossoms are opening & putting on a splendid spring spectacle.”
The agency confirmed peak bloom arrived on March 17 on its website on Monday. But what exactly makes them open up earlier? Scientists and National Park officials say it all has to do with the weather.
“Peak bloom varies annually depending on weather conditions,” the service says, adding that the typical bloom period also depends on weather conditions. “…Cool, calm weather can extend the length of the bloom, and a rainy, windy day can bring an abrupt end to the ephemeral blossoms. A late frost can prevent the trees from blooming at all.”
D.C.’s predicted peak blossom season is expected to come just days after scientists with the Japan Meteorological Agency said cherry blossoms have been blooming earlier over time due to rising global temperatures.
Daisuke Sasano, a climate risk management officer at the JMA’s Office of Climate Change, said in a briefing last week that overall, global temperatures have been increasing. Scientists have confirmed that 2023 was the hottest year on record and 2024 has already seen record-breaking heat.
“It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land. Climate change is already affecting every inhabited region across the globe, with human influence contributing to many observed changes in weather and climate extremes,” his presentation said, citing the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. “Projected changes in extremes are larger in frequency and intensity with every additional increment of global warming.”
Studying a sample cherry blossom tree — called sakura in Japanese — in Tokyo, Sasano said scientists found that the average start date for cherry blossoms to bloom in Japan has gotten earlier, moving up at a rate of roughly 1.2 days every decade. That rate has a “high” correlation with the average temperature, he said. And it’s not just Tokyo — several major Japanese cities have seen earlier blooms over the past 30 years, including Osaka, Hiroshima and Sendai.
The earliest peak recorded in D.C. was March 15, 1990, according to the National Park Service, which added that this year marks the earliest peak in at least two decades. It comes as the D.C. saw above-average temperatures in both January and March. On Feb. 26, Weather Underground recorded a max temperature of 66 degrees Fahrenheit at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport – nearly 16 degrees above average.
Global temperatures are only expected to continue to rise, furthering weather extremes – and impacting cherry blossoms. Even if greenhouse gas emissions – a primary driver of global warming – drastically decrease worldwide today, the emissions already put into the atmosphere will continue to have an impact for decades to come.
Scientists with non-profit group Climate Central have also said climate change is having an impact on blossoms. In 2018, the organization said that from 1931 to 1960, cherry blossoms in D.C. were blooming on average around April 6. From 1981 to 2010, however, the average was April 1. They also predict that in the future, blooms could happen as early as the first week of March.
Last year’s cherry blossoms stayed on trees for a little more than a week. But how long this year’s bloom remains is still a question. The National Weather Service is expecting a cold front into the Northeast U.S. at the beginning of the week that could bring some snow and wind gusts of up to 30 mph across the region, and while cool and calm can extend the life of the blossoms, rain and wind can bring their end.
Americans are expected to spend more money heating their homes this winter than on holiday gifts, according to new research.
The elevated cost of staying warm indoors amid cold outdoor temperatures comes after an unusually hot summer, that led to households spending bigger shares of their budgets on cooling costs, compared with previous years, according to a report from the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA).
On average, spending on home heating this winter is projected to increase by 8.7% to $941, up from $866 last winter. The increased costs are attributed in part to both expected colder temperatures in the Northeast and Midwest states.
The new average expenditure on heating costs outpaces the $902 the average household is expected to spend on Christmas presents this year, according to a forecast from the National Retail Federation.
What’s driving up home heating costs?
There are different ways to keep residences warm. Families that use electricity to heat their homes are expected to face the largest increase in costs — more than 14% — which will bring the total up to $1,189 from $1,040 from mid-November through mid-March, which NEADA considers to be the winter period.
Driving up prices is the rising cost of updating and maintaining the electric grid. Plus, colder weather is expected to lead to increased consumption.
“It’s colder, and the cost of electricity is up as the grid is rebuilt. So we’re seeing both higher prices and greater usage,” NEADA Executive Director Mark Wolfe told CBS MoneyWatch.
Natural gas, propane and heating oil cost differences
Natural gas and propane users are also expected to be hit with bigger bills this winter. Heating costs for natural gas are up just over 3%, for an average cost of $634 for the winter period, compared with $615 for 2023-2024. Costs are expected to rise only modestly in line with wholesale prices.
Propane costs are up 4.4%, with families expected to spend an average of $1,231 heating homes, up from $1,179 last season.
Heating oil costs, by contrast, have declined 2.7%, which means average spending this winter will be $1,518, down from $1,560 last winter.
Early start to the season
November was colder than usual, with temperatures dropping prematurely after a “very expensive summer” of heat waves straining cooling resources, said Wolfe.
Blame climate change for the big swings in temperature, he added.
“Weather conditions can be very unpredictable even though over time, winters are getting warmer and summers are getting hotter. It’s not a straight line, and for consumers, it’s quite upsetting because higher utility bills are coming right before Christmas,” Wolfe said.
Steps to take now
There are steps consumers can take to help keep a lid on home heating costs.
Wolfe urges people to have their thermostats serviced now, before the coldest temperatures of the season roll in. That way, families won’t be on the hook for an emergency repair if their thermostat breaks in the middle of a cold front. A tune-up will also help heating systems run more efficiently, he said.
Always close the furnace flue, or else it will lead heat outside the house, advises Wolfe. Lastly, manually turn down the heat at night, if you can, to save up to 10% on your energy bill.
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There’s still time to become a mega-millionaire for Christmas, but lady luck will have to be on your side.
No one matched Mega Millions‘ all six winning numbers last Tuesday, and the jackpot now stands at $862 million ahead of Friday night’s drawing.
The jackpot has been rolling since it was last won at $810 million in Texas on Sept. 10.
If there is a sole winner, they have a choice between an annuity, with an initial payment and then 29 annual payments, or a one-time lump sum payment. Most winners choose a cash payout.
For Friday night’s drawing, that would be an estimated $392.1 million before taxes.
If won at that level, it would be the largest prize ever won in December and the seventh largest in Mega Millions history.
According to Mega Millions, 13 jackpots have been won during December since the game began in 2002. Three were won in the days after Christmas, while the other 10 were won before Christmas. There has never been a jackpot win on Christmas Day, although over the years drawings have been conducted on Christmas six times – in 2007, 2009, 2012, 2015, 2018 and 2020.
Mega Millions drawings are held on Tuesday and Friday, tickets cost $2. The odds of winning the jackpot are about 1 in 303 million.
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