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Will mortgage rates fall this spring? Here’s what the experts think
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Mortgage rates fell to low levels during the pandemic, dropping below 3% as real estate prices soared. But subsequent issues with inflation ultimately caused the Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark interest rate, which led consumer interest rates to climb over time. In turn, today’s average 30-year mortgage rate is much higher than it was during the pandemic at 6.88% (as of April 1, 2024).
Meanwhile, home prices have continued to climb and issues with low inventory are still common in many markets. Against this backdrop, many prospective homebuyers are watching and waiting to see if mortgage rates fall, which could help make homebuying more affordable overall. But what do experts think could happen with mortgage rates this spring? Here’s what you should know.
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Will mortgage rates fall this spring? Here’s what the experts think.
Many experts expect that mortgage rates won’t experience many, if any, drops this spring. Rather, experts expect that rate cuts could happen in the second half of the year instead.
Why mortgage rates might not budge much this spring
While mortgage rates don’t exactly depend on the Fed’s rate decisions, the Fed does have a big influence on the direction they take. And until issues with persistent inflation show more signs of easing, mortgage rates might not drop much.
“While we’re all eager for mortgage rates to head south this spring, I’m inclined to think it’s unlikely, especially with the Federal Reserve maintaining its ‘hold and observe’ strategy for now,” says Matt Dunbar, SVP of Southeast Region at Churchill Mortgage. “Despite their recent communications regarding future rate cuts, expecting a substantial drop in mortgage rates in the short term might be overly optimistic.”
That said, mortgage rates could start to fall toward the end of the spring, given the Fed’s meeting schedule.
“I don’t expect mortgage rates to fall until around the June 12th Fed meeting. The Fed isn’t expected to cut rates during their May meeting, which means any real drop in interest rates would not happen until late spring/early summer at the earliest,” says Will Matheson, co-founder and managing partner at Matheson Capital.
Even then, the initial Fed rate cut is expected to be 25 basis points, so that might not have a dramatic effect on mortgage interest rates.
“I expect rates to start falling during the second half of this year, when the Fed is projected to start cutting rates. By the end of the year, I expect mortgage rates to be down by 0.75-1.00 percentage points,” says Matheson.
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Expect ebbs and flows
Although the Fed isn’t expected to cut rates until at least June, mortgage rates could fluctuate up or down before then, based on the available data. However, buyers might not want to draw too many conclusions from these fluctuations.
“I don’t think mortgage rates are going to fall significantly this spring. Sure, we’ve seen some rates fall over the past few days, but mortgage rates tend to ebb and flow, and I don’t think we’re at a steady decline yet,” says Seamus Nally, CEO of TurboTenant.
“All signs point to rates dropping by the end of the year though, likely somewhere around 6%. Everyone is expecting the Federal Reserve to cut the benchmark interest rate in the latter half of the year, and once that happens, that is when I expect mortgage rates to start making a solid decline,” he adds.
Keep an eye on the data
While small fluctuations in mortgage rates might not indicate much, the mortgage market could get a head start before the Fed cuts interest rates. However, that depends on what data comes in.
“Based on incoming economic and CPI data, we could see some easing into the mid-to-low sixes, though surprises in data could potentially nudge rates in the opposite direction,” says Dunbar.
After the spring season ends, what happens with mortgage rates will again depend on how the economy’s doing and how the Fed interprets economic data.
“In the future, whether rates might drop depends largely on how the Federal Reserve perceives the economy’s progress toward its inflation and growth targets,” says Dunbar.
The bottom line
Overall, expert mortgage rate predictions typically don’t expect there to be much of a reduction in mortgage rates this spring, but perhaps a larger drop will happen later this year. But it’s worth noting that because much remains uncertain, it’s tough to get the market timing right. In turn, homebuyers might want to focus on getting the best deal on a home that fits their needs rather than trying to time the mortgage market. And if you do decide to buy a home now, there may be ways to get a lower mortgage rate, such as improving your credit score, putting down a larger down payment or getting seller concessions.
At least 11 employees were taken to hospitals and residents were urged to shelter in place on Tuesday after an explosion at a Louisville, Kentucky, business.
The Louisville Metro Emergency Services reported on social media a “hazardous materials incident” at 1901 Payne St., in Louisville. The address belongs to a facility operated by Givaudan Sense Colour, a manufacturer of food colorings for soft drinks and other products, according to officials and online records.
Louisville Mayor Craig Greenberg said emergency teams responded to the blast around 3 p.m. News outlets reported that neighbors heard what sounded like an explosion coming from the business. Overhead news video footage showed an industrial building with a large hole in its roof.
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“The cause at this point of the explosion is unknown,” Greenberg said in a news conference. No one died in the explosion, he added.
Greenberg said officials spoke to employees inside the plant. “They have initially conveyed that everything was normal activity when the explosion occurred,” he said.
The Louisville Fire Department said in a post on the social platform X that multiple agencies were responding to a “large-scale incident.”
The Louisville Metro Emergency Services first urged people within a mile of the business to shelter in place, but that order was lifted in the afternoon. An evacuation order for the two surrounding blocks around the site of the explosion was still in place Tuesday afternoon.
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A rare square 37-carat emerald owned by the Aga Khan fetched nearly $9 million at auction in Geneva on Tuesday, making it the world’s most expensive green stone.
Sold by Christie’s, the Cartier diamond and emerald brooch, which can also be worn as a pendant, dethrones a piece of jewelry made by the fashion house Bulgari, which Richard Burton gave as a wedding gift to fellow actor Elizabeth Taylor, as the most precious emerald.
In 1960, Prince Sadruddin Aga Khan commissioned Cartier to set the emerald in a brooch with 20 marquise-cut diamonds for British socialite Nina Dyer, to whom he was briefly married.
Dyer then auctioned off the emerald to raise money for animals in 1969.
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By chance that was Christie’s very first such sale in Switzerland on the shores of Lake Geneva, with the emerald finding its way back to the 110th edition this year.
It was bought by jeweler Van Cleef & Arpels before passing a few years later into the hands of Harry Winston, nicknamed the “King of Diamonds.”
“Emeralds are hot right now, and this one ticks all the boxes,” said Christie’s EMEA Head of Jewellery Max Fawcett. “…We might see an emerald of this quality come up for sale once every five or six years.”
Also set with diamonds, the previous record-holder fetched $6.5 million at an auction of part of Hollywood legend Elizabeth Taylor’s renowned jewelry collection in New York.
