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When will the next big solar storm slam Earth? New discovery about sun’s magnetic field could improve forecasts
New research indicates the sun’s magnetic field originates much closer to the surface than previously thought, a finding that could help predict periods of extreme solar storms like the ones that slammed Earth earlier this month.
The magnetic field appears to generate 20,000 miles beneath the sun’s surface. Previous calculations put the roots of this process more than 130,000 miles below, an international team reported Wednesday.
The sun’s intense magnetic energy is the source of solar flares and eruptions of plasma known as coronal mass ejections. When directed toward Earth, they can create stunning auroras but also disrupt power and communications.
“We still don’t understand the sun well enough to make accurate predictions” of space weather, lead author Geoffrey Vasil of the University of Edinburgh said in an email.
The latest findings published in the journal Nature “will be an important step toward finally resolving” this mysterious process known as solar dynamo, added co-author Daniel Lecoanet of Northwestern University.
/ AP
Galileo was among the first astronomers to turn a telescope skyward and study sunspots, back in the early 1600s. Solar flares and coronal mass ejections tend to occur near sunspots, dark patches as big as Earth that are located near the most intense portions of the sun’s shifting magnetic field.
Vasil and his team developed new models of the interaction between the sun’s magnetic field and the flow of plasma, which varies at different latitudes during an 11-year cycle. They fed their calculations into a NASA supercomputer in Northern California – the same one used in the 2015 movie “The Martian” to verify the best flight path to rescue the main character. The results suggested a shallow magnetic field and additional research is needed to confirm this.
The modeling was “highly simplified,” University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Ellen Zweibel, who was not part of the team, said in an accompanying editorial.
The results are intriguing and “sure to inspire future studies,” Zweibel said.
Preparing for “potentially much more dangerous” storm
The new knowledge should improve long-term solar forecasts, allowing scientists to better predict the strength of our star’s future cycles. The sun is approaching its peak level of activity in the current 11-year cycle, thus the recent flareups.
Strong solar flares and outbursts of billions of tons of plasma earlier this month unleashed severe solar storms that produced auroras in unexpected places. Last week, the sun spewed out the biggest solar flare in almost 20 years, but it steered clear of Earth.
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center
That came just days after an “extreme” G5 geomagnetic storm reached Earth after NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center warned of the potential for a severe impact.
Better understanding of the sun can ensure “we are prepared for when the next storm — potentially much more dangerous — hits Earth,” Lecoanet said.
Earth is currently in Solar Cycle 25, which began in 2020. The last cycle maintained an average length of 11 years and was the weakest solar cycle to occur in a century, the National Weather Service said. Although the current cycle has been forecast to be fairly weak and similar to the one prior, NOAA officials saw “a steady increase in sunspot activity” from the get-go.
Li Cohen contributed to this report.
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Kamala Harris will speak with “60 Minutes” tomorrow. Here’s what to know for the interview.
Voters will get the chance to hear from Vice President Kamala Harris on Monday as she presents her case for why she should be president in a “60 Minutes” election special.
For decades, “60 Minutes” has featured both Republican and Democratic nominees for presidents, but this year, former President Donald Trump backed out after previously indicating he would be on the show. Correspondent Scott Pelley, who’d been set to interview Trump, will instead travel to Arizona’s Maricopa County, home to more than 60% of Arizona’s voters and a critical battleground in a key swing state.
One thing is certain about the election; with the U.S. deeply involved in both the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, whoever wins on Nov. 5 will become a wartime president.
What Harris will discuss
Israel’s war started one year ago after Hamas launched a surprise terror attack and correspondent Bill Whitaker will discuss the ongoing war with Harris.
Harris will also discuss the economy, immigration, her record as vice president and the differences between herself and Trump.
Democratic vice presidential candidate Gov. Tim Walz will also appear.
Whitaker joined the Democratic ticket on the campaign trail this week to gain insight into their platform’s priorities and values, and what the candidates believe voters should know.
Why Trump pulled out of the “60 Minutes” interview
Leading up to the candidate hour, Trump, through campaign spokespeople, was the first candidate to accept the “60 Minutes” request to be interviewed for the special, according to CBS News. It had been agreed that both candidates would receive equal time during the broadcast.
Trump last sat down with 60 Minutes in 2020. He walked out during the interview with Lesley Stahl. Trump referenced the incident on Tuesday night at a Milwaukee press conference when asked about his decision not to participate in the Oct. 7 “60 Minutes” election special.
“Well, right now, I went to – they came to me and would like me to do an interview, but first I want to get an apology, because the last time I did an interview with them, if you remember, they challenged me on the computer,” Trump said. “They said the ‘laptop from hell’ was from Russia, and I said it wasn’t from Russia. It was from Hunter, and I never got an apology, so I’m sort of waiting. I’d love to do ’60 Minutes.’ I do everything.”
The Republican nominee for president emphasized that he felt he was owed an apology from “60 Minutes.”
“Let’s see if they do it. I wouldn’t mind doing 60,” Trump continued. “I’ve done ’60 Minutes’ a lot.”
In a statement on Tuesday, Trump campaign communications director Steven Cheung said that Trump’s team had not agreed to an interview.
“Fake News,” Cheung said in a post on X. “60 Minutes begged for an interview, even after they were caught lying about Hunter Biden’s laptop back in 2020. There were initial discussions, but nothing was ever scheduled or locked in. They also insisted on doing live fact checking, which is unprecedented.”
Previous Trump, Harris appearances on 60 Minutes
Trump previously sat down with “60 Minutes'” Mike Wallace in 1985, Pelley in 2015 and Lesley Stahl twice in 2016, first in July of that year and then again in November of 2016. He also spoke with Stahl again in 2018 and 2020.
Harris previously sat down with Whitaker last year. She also was interviewed by Norah O’Donnell, “CBS Evening News” anchor and “60 Minutes” contributing correspondent, in 2020.
