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Will mortgage rates fall after the June Fed meeting? Here’s what experts think

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The upcoming Fed meeting could have an impact on whether mortgage rates decline in the near future, experts say.

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After the latest report revealed that inflation remains high at 3.4% — and after the May Consumer Price Index All Urban Consumers report showed a 0.3% increase in April — the Federal Reserve elected to hold the federal funds rate steady for the sixth consecutive meeting. This, in turn, further delayed the anticipated rate cuts that had, at one point, been expected to occur in mid-2024.

While the Federal Reserve doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, the rates offered by lenders tend to follow the agency’s lead. As such, mortgage rates remain elevated, and once again have climbed over the 7% mark on average, with the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate averaging 7.18% as of June 4, 2024.

The Fed’s next meeting is set for June 11 and 12, and many potential borrowers are hopeful that a rate cut occur, followed by a drop to mortgage rates. Late last year, the agency hinted at multiple rate cuts in 2024, but persistent inflation has delayed such cuts. So, any rate drop would be welcome news for potential homebuyers looking for lower borrowing costs. But will mortgage rates fall after the June Fed meeting? Here’s what experts say.

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Will mortgage rates fall after the June Fed meeting? Here’s what experts think

We consulted several experts to get their take on the Federal Reserve’s potential course and how it could influence mortgage rates. Here’s what they had to say.

Joseph Camberato, CEO at NationalBusinessCapital.com:

“I highly doubt we’re going to get a rate cut just yet. I really believe we’re finally headed in the right direction, albeit very slowly. Inflation still rose 0.3% in April, which was better than expected, but it’s still up 3.4% for the year and unemployment remains the same. The Fed is looking for it to worsen to lower rates.

If the Fed keeps rates the same, mortgage rates will probably remain unchanged in the short term.”

Daniel McKeever, assistant professor at the School of Management at Binghamton University, State University of New York:

“I think the probability of a June rate cut is pretty low. Just take a look at the minutes from the Fed’s most recent policy meeting (April 30 and May 1). There appears to be a pretty clear consensus to continue chasing a 2% inflation target, even if it takes longer than initially thought. Rate hikes aren’t off the table, either, in the event that persistent rates in the 5.25% to 5.50% range don’t appear to have the same impact that they once did.

The most probable outcome is that the Fed doesn’t change rates. Mortgage rates track extremely closely with the Fed’s benchmark rate. Since the Fed completed the bulk of its aggressive rate hikes in spring 2022, average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates have hovered around 7% pretty consistently. I’d expect to see them stay there if the Fed keeps its benchmark rate the same at the upcoming meeting.”

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Van Hesser, chief strategist at Kroll Bond Rating Agency:

No (the Fed will not cut rates). Inflation remains meaningfully above the Fed’s 2% target, and it is taking longer than usual for restrictive rates to slow the economy. That has a lot to do with the extraordinary amount of stimulus deployed in the pandemic era.

Over the near term, with the Fed keeping rates elevated, we do not expect mortgage rates to fall materially. As the economy slows in 2024’s second half and the Fed begins to ease monetary policy, we would expect mortgage rates to fall gradually and modestly but remain well above the sub-3% lows hit during the pandemic.”

Emily Overton, capital markets analyst at Veterans United Home Loans:

“It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will keep rates unchanged at this month’s meeting. While this decision is expected, markets eagerly anticipate what the Fed’s new dot plot and summary of economic projections will reveal.

Markets currently anticipate one cut this year, so if the Fed keeps three cuts on the table, we should see a small improvement in mortgage rates. However, if the Fed were to match market expectations, then mortgage rates should remain relatively unchanged.”

The bottom line 

The consensus among these experts suggests the Federal Reserve is likely to keep the federal funds rate where it is, but it could lower rates later in the year. Consequently, mortgage rates are likely to stay in the current 7% range, with little room to drop much lower, at least in the near future, experts say.

“If a prospective buyer is looking to buy a home this year, waiting for lower rates may not necessarily result in more savings as rates are likely to hover near current levels,” says Overton. “For a seller, waiting for home prices to rise may also not be a feasible option because we haven’t seen a huge uptick in buying activity, and recent data suggests home prices may have peaked as delistings and price drops are increasing.”



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Starstruck: The public’s one-sided bond with celebrities

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Starstruck: The public’s one-sided bond with celebrities – CBS News


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Parasocial relationships are those that are one-sided – like the fascination and devotion that fans hold for their favorite celebrities. Correspondent Susan Spencer talks with journalist Jancee Dunn about her experience interviewing her hero, rock star Stevie Nicks; and with experts about how that intense fan-celebrity relationship speaks to the human condition.

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Brush with fame: The public’s one-sided bond with celebrities

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Journalist Jancee Dunn admits it: She has been obsessed with rock star Stevie Nicks ever since high school. “I listened to Stevie’s music for hours and hours and hours,” she said. “I tried to dress, in an ill-advised moment, like Stevie! And she’s just kind of bound up in my early years in a way that is really intense and deeply personal.”

The years flew by, but her feelings never faded. So, imagine her joy when, in 1997, Harper’s Bazaar assigned her to interview Stevie Nicks at her California home! 

Dunn began prepping immediately, rehearsing in front of a mirror how she would say “Hell-o, Stevie.”

Did Nicks understand what a fan she was? “I kept it together so I wouldn’t creep her out; I don’t think she fully knew what a fan that I was,” she said. “I knew to kind of pull it back!”

The interview even featured a surreal tour of the rock star’s closet, filled with capes she had worn on stage and her famous platform boots. Dunn said it was, indubitably, one of the happiest afternoons of her life. Her only keepsake: A precious autographed T-shirt that she stores folded in a special place in her closet.

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Journalist Jancee Dunn shows Susan Spencer her T-shirt autographed by Stevie Nicks. 

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Asked if she ever though, This is fun, this is great, but Stevie’s just a person like me, Dunn replied, “No! No, why would I think that? It’s Stevie Nicks! Never did I think that, because it’s not true. She’s different. She’s otherworldly.”

Sociologist Kerry Ferris, a professor at Northern Illinois University, says our excitement over celebrities stems from them embodying things that we want for ourselves: “They have some combination of talent and good looks and wealth and renown,” she said.

Ferris has a database of dozens of celebrity encounter stories: “There’s a whole sort of category of encounters that involve physical contact, and fans really get excited about that: ‘I touched so-and-so.’ ‘I gave them a hug.’ ‘I shook their hand.’ ‘I sat next to them on the bus.’ And then, they get off the bus! It’s very fleeting. But it becomes the nugget of the celebrity-sighting story.”

Ferris said these stories typically follow a pattern. First comes disbelief (Is that really Beyoncé?), then strategizing (should I go introduce myself?), and then, often, embarrassment! “People get really worried about how stupid they must have sounded, looked or seemed,” Ferris said.

Psychologists refer to this kind of one-sided relationship as “parasocial.” University of Indianapolis professor Travis Cooper, who teaches in the philosophy and religion department, explains: “The fan is going to typically know a whole lot about the star, maybe their life history (depends on the level of their fandom). And the star is going to know nothing about that fan.”

The intensity of the feeling, Cooper said, is what makes such a relationship so mystifying. He should know – he’s had his own celebrity encounter.

One day, to his surprise, he spotted the actor Jesse Eisenberg at his local Y, an event he described as two worlds colliding: “I had my academic training, all that stuff kind of in my head that filters out how I see the world, all that on the one hand; and then on the other hand, I had this very visceral experience,” Cooper said. “There was a slight embarrassment, almost a giddiness, almost a fanboy kind of reaction at some point.”

He said he doesn’t consider himself a fanboy: “I’d like to not. But I feel like, in that moment, that’s kind of what happened.”

Even mention of a celebrity sighting or encounter is bound to stop the conversation. “It’s a brush with a person larger-than-life,” said Vance Ricks, a professor at Northeastern University in Boston. “And so, maybe some of the glory from that person rubs off on you.”

He says we therefore irrationally treasure these relationships. “It’s a little funny or ironic to call it a ‘relationship,’ when it’s so unidirectional,” he said. “What you’re often doing is projecting a sense of being understood by that person, or of knowing about that person.”

What does that tell us about the human condition? “Many of us want some kind of attachment,” Ricks said. “And in some cases, we may create that.”

Jancee Dunn felt that attachment, especially when – after she interviewed Stevie Nicks – the rock star graciously invited her to be an overnight house guest. “I thought, ‘Okay, should I? Shouldn’t I?’ It seemed invasive, it seemed weird. I said no, and I got in the cab. And as I’m pulling away, I mean, I couldn’t have been two blocks down the street where I thought, You idiot!”

She feels the same regret decades later, and even wrote about it for The New York Times, where she is a columnist for the Well section. “Even now, if I’m at the grocery store or the pharmacy, and I hear ‘Edge of Seventeen’ or one of Stevie’s hits, I get a pain in my heart,” she laughed.

What would Dunn like to tell Nicks today? “Stevie, if you were to invite me over to your house again, I would happily spend the night, I would clean up in the morning, and I would be a very good guest!” she laughed.

      
For more info:

       
Story produced by Amiel Weisfogel. Editor: George Pozderec. 

     
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Israel says it has killed another high-ranking Hezbollah official as conflict escalates

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The Israeli military said Sunday that it killed another high-ranking Hezbollah official in an airstrike as the terrorist group in Lebanon reels from a string of devastating blows and the killing of its longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah.

The Israel Defense Forces said it killed Nabil Kaouk, the deputy head of Hezbollah’s Central County, in an airstrike on Saturday. Hezbollah confirmed his death, making him the seventh senior Hezbollah leader slain in Israeli strikes in a little over a week. They include founding members who had evaded death or detention for decades.

Kaouk was a veteran member of Hezbollah going back to the 1980s and served as Hezbollah’s military commander in southern Lebanon during the 2006 war with Israel. He often appeared in local media, where he would comment on politics and security developments, and he gave eulogies at the funerals of senior militants. The United States had announced sanctions against him in 2020.

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Sheikh Nabil Kaouk, Hezbollah chief of the South Lebanon region, seen in 2006.

RAMZI HAIDAR/AFP via Getty Images


The announcement of Kaouk’s death came a day after the Israeli military said it killed Nasrallah in an afternoon airstrike on Friday in Beirut. The IDF said it targeted the group’s “central headquarters,” which were “embedded under a residential building” in Beirut’s southern suburbs.

On Sunday, Hezbollah confirmed that among those killed in Friday’s airstrike was also Ali Karaki, one of the group’s senior commanders.

The Iran-backed group confirmed its longtime leader “has joined his fellow martyrs.”

Several senior Hezbollah commanders have been killed in Israeli strikes in recent weeks, including founding members of the group who have evaded death or detention for decades. The U.S. designated terrorist group was also targeted by a sophisticated attack on its pages and walkie-talkies that was widely blamed on Israel.

A wave of Israeli airstrikes across large parts of Lebanon has killed more than 1,000 people – including 156 women and 87 children – in fewer than two weeks, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry.

Hezbollah has continued to fire rockets and missiles into northern Israel, but most have been intercepted or fallen in open areas, causing few casualties and only scattered damage.

Thousands of people in shelters after strikes

A Lebanese cabinet minister spearheading the country’s emergency response said that the government estimates about 250,000 people have left their homes and taken refuge in government-run shelters and informal ones.

Nasrallah's death hits headlines in Iranian newspapers
A view of the front pages of the newspapers featured news about the death of Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli strike in the Lebanese capital on Friday, at a store in Tehran, Iran on September 29, 2024.

Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty Images


Environment Minister Nasser Yassin told the Associated Press that the total number is about “four times as many directly affected and/or displaced outside the shelters.”

The United Nations said that as of Friday, 211,319 people were forced to relocate, and that was before some intensive Israeli airstrikes over Beirut’s southern suburbs in recent days.

The Lebanese government has converted schools and other facilities into temporary shelters. Still, many are sleeping on the streets or in public squares, as the government and non-governmental organizations try to find them places to stay.

LEBANON-ISRAEL-PALESTINIAN-CONFLICT
A displaced family fleeing violence in southern Lebanon takes shelter at the entrance of a branch of Iran’s Saderat Bank in Sidon.

MAHMOUD ZAYYAT/AFP via Getty Images


Fighting escalates as airstrikes continue

Amid the escalation from Israel — who is said to be sending ground troops to the border with Lebanon for a possible limited ground incursion next week, according to a U.S. official — Lebanon’s military called for calm among the Lebanese “at this dangerous and delicate stage.”

Government officials fear that the country’s deep political divisions at a time of war could rekindle sectarian strife and violence in the small Mediterranean country.

“The Israeli enemy is working to implement its destructive plans and spread division among the Lebanese,” the military said.

Military vehicles have been deployed in different parts of the capital as thousands of displaced people continue moving from the south to Beirut.

Meanwhile, Lebanon’s state news agency said an Israeli airstrike early Sunday destroyed a home in the northeast village of al-Ain, killing 11 people. Six of the bodies were recovered from under the rubble as the search continued for the remaining five, National News Agency reported.

Lebanon Israel
A destroyed building at the site of an Israeli airstrike in Beirut’s southern suburbs, Sunday, Sept. 29, 2024.

Hassan Ammar / AP


In southern Lebanon, the Islamic Risala Scout Association said five of its members were killed while performing their duties. It said four of the men killed were from the southern village of Tayr Debba while the fifth was from nearby Kabrikha.

Hezbollah began firing rockets, missiles and drones into northern Israel after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack out of Gaza triggered the war there. Hezbollah and Hamas are allies that consider themselves part of an Iran-backed “Axis of Resistance” against Israel.

Israel has responded with waves of airstrikes, and the conflict has steadily ratcheted up to the brink of all-out war, raising fears of a region-wide conflagration.

A senior Israeli official said Friday that Israel was not seeking a broader regional war but that Hezbollah’s military capabilities had been meaningfully degraded by the recent series of Israeli military operations and that the objective of the strike was to leave Hezbollah with a significant leadership gap.

Israel says it is determined to return some 60,000 of its citizens to communities in the north that were evacuated nearly a year ago. Hezbollah has said it will only halt its rocket fire if there is a cease-fire in Gaza, which has proven elusive despite months of indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas led by the United States, Qatar and Egypt.



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