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The world could soon see a massive oil glut. Here’s why.

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Good Question: What factors influence the price of gas?


Good Question: What factors influence the price of gas?

03:01

The world could have a glut of oil by the end of the decade because of rising production combined with declining demand as consumers and businesses switch to electric vehicles and renewable energy, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency.

The International Energy Agency said Wednesday that the world’s total oil supply capacity is expected to rise to about 114 million barrels a day by 2030, which the group said would amount to “staggering” 8 million barrels a day beyond projected demand. 

That type of spare capacity hasn’t been seen outside the COVID-19 lockdowns of 2020, when economies across the world shut down as governments sought to stop the spread of the deadly virus, the IEA said. The extra capacity could have “significant consequences for oil markets,” ranging from the U.S. to OPEC member nations such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, it added.

“This report’s projections, based on the latest data, show a major supply surplus emerging this decade, suggesting that oil companies may want to make sure their business strategies and plans are prepared for the changes taking place,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol in a statement. 

Among the drivers for rising oil supplies are expectations that Americans and consumers in other developed nations will continue to shift to electric vehicles. Global sales of EVs could reach 40 million cars in 2030, with almost one in two new cars projected to be an EV at that time, the IEA forecasted.

Could gas prices decline?

It’s possible that an oversupply of oil could lead to a “lower price environment,” according to the IEA report. However, the analysis includes three projections for where oil prices could be in 2030, ranging from a high of more than $90 a barrel to a low of less than $60 a barrel within six years. Currently, oil is trading at about $82 a barrel. 

Still, one expert cautioned against reading too much into the report.

“It’s a long-range outlook, so it could be way off, or very close, but I’m a bit more concerned with the slowdown in EV adoption and the tremendous costs for countries adopting EVs,” Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told CBS MoneyWatch in an email. 

Cheaper gas prices might not materialize by 2030 because some refineries have shut down in the U.S. and Europe, and there are fewer plans to build new facilities given the shift into solar, wind and other renewable energy sources, he added. 

“[T]he future is hazy when it comes to this potential impact to gasoline prices,” De Haan said. “We’ll still need refineries for some time, and if they shut down as the transition occurs, that could lead gas prices higher in the long run.”

In the short term, drivers are getting some near-term relief, as gas prices are now dropping across the nation due to weaker demand and lower oil prices. The average price for regular unleaded gas in the U.S. was $3.44 per gallon on Monday, down about 9 cents from a week ago and 14 cents from a year earlier, according to AAA. 



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Rep. Mike Turner says all “candidates need to deescalate” after Trump assassination attempts

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Rep. Mike Turner, an Ohio Republican who chairs the House Intelligence Committee, responded Sunday to Eric Trump’s implication that his father’s Democratic opponents were responsible for the attempts on former President Trump’s life, saying the innuendo was “of course” inaccurate but political candidates on both sides of the aisle “need to deescalate” their rhetoric.

“No, of course not,” Turner said in his latest appearance on “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan,” after being asked whether he believes there was truth to claims made by the former president, his son Eric, and his vice presidential running mate, Sen. JD Vance, at a rally where each either implied or suggested Democrats tried to kill him.

Trump returned Saturday to Butler, Pennsylvania, to speak to supporters gathered at the Butler Farm Show fairgrounds, the site of the July 13 assassination attempt against him. A gunman facing Trump on the podium at that rally opened fire into the crowd, grazing Trump’s ear, killing one attendee and injuring two others, according to authorities. The gunman was killed by a Secret Service sniper, officials said. 

Another apparent assassination attempt happened in September when a suspect pointed a gun in Trump’s direction on the Florida course where he was playing golf. The FBI has opened probes into both incidents. 

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Rep. Mike Turner on “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan,” Oct. 6, 2024.

CBS News


Trump, his son and Vance all acknowledged the assassination attempt in Butler at Saturday’s campaign event.

“Over the past eight years, those who want to stop us from achieving this future have slandered me impeached me indicted me tried to throw me off the ballot and, who knows, maybe even tried to kill me,” said the former president, while Eric Trump claimed his father’s political opponents “tried to kill him, and it’s because the Democratic party, they can’t do anything right.”

Vance, in his remarks, addressed Trump’s Democratic challenger in the presidential race, Vice President Kamala Harris, and suggested that the Republican nominee “took a bullet for democracy.”

Brennan asked Turner: “You don’t mean to imply here anything that would suggest Eric Trump’s allegations that Democrats are trying to kill him?”

“No, of course not,” Turner responded. “But I do think that Vice President Harris needs to actively state and acknowledge that her administration is saying a foreign power, which would be an act of war, is actively trying to kill her opponent.”

The attempts on Trump’s life came after a citizen of Pakistan with ties to Iran was arrested and charged with allegedly planning a murder-for-hire scheme targeting Trump, among others. Although the timing of the charges coincided with the first attempt, there was no indication that the two incidents were related.

Turner criticized Harris for what he viewed as a failure to openly condemn the alleged plot.

“I think there’s certainly a role for her to play and for the president to play in this, in both identifying that there are threats against Donald Trump that need to be acknowledged and responded to, to deter,” he said. “I think all the candidates need to de-escalate, certainly in their language.”

But the congressman did acknowledge that a Biden-Harris Justice Department official, Matthew Olsen, the head of the national security division, said the U.S. government has been “intensely tracking Iranian lethal plotting efforts targeting former and current U.S. government officials — and that includes the former president.”

“I would say that we are very concerned — gravely concerned — about Iranian plotting,” Olsen told CBS News in a recent interview.



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Maps show track of Hurricane Milton as forecasters predict landfall in Florida this week

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South Florida prepares for heavy rainfall, flooding in wake of Tropical Storm Milton


South Florida prepares for heavy rainfall, flooding in wake of Tropical Storm Milton

04:09

Hurricane Milton rapidly intensified into a Category 1 storm on Sunday, and it has set its path on Florida’s Gulf Coast.

Forecasters predict Milton will make landfall around the Tampa Bay area on Wednesday, bringing with it upwards of 120 mph winds and drenching an area still reeling from Hurricane Helene.

As of 2 p.m. ET on Sunday, Milton was centered about 290 miles west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and about 815 miles west-southwest of Tampa. It had maximum sustained winds of nearly 80 mph and was inching north-northeast at 6 mph.

Path of Hurricane Milton

A map from the National Hurricane Center shows Milton continuing to strengthen into a major hurricane as it approaches Florida’s western coast.

“Milton is forecast to rapidly intensify during the next couple of days and become a major hurricane on Monday,” forecasters said.

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The projected path of Hurricane Milton as of Oct. 6, 2024

NOAA/National Hurricane Center


The storm is expected to remain north of Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula, with heavy rainfall expected as Milton makes its way northeast toward Florida. Tropical storm watches are currently in effect from Celestun to Cancún, Mexico.

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The current wind field for Hurricane Milton as of Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024.

NOAA/National Hurricane Center


The hurricane center said hurricane and storm surge watches could be issued for parts of Florida later Sunday.

Florida officials prepare for more impact

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Sunday that while it remains to be seen just where Milton will strike, it’s clear that Florida is going to be hit hard. “I don’t think there’s any scenario where we don’t have major impacts at this point,” he said.

“You have time to prepare — all day today, all day Monday, probably all day Tuesday to be sure your hurricane preparedness plan is in place,” the governor said. “If you’re on that west coast of Florida, barrier islands, just assume you’ll be asked to leave.”

Tropical Weather
This GOES-16 GeoColor satellite image taken at 4:50 p.m. EDT and provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) shows Tropical Storm Milton, center, off the coast of Mexico in the Gulf of Mexico, Saturday, Oct. 5, 2024.

NOAA via AP


DeSantis expanded his state of emergency declaration Sunday to 51 counties and said Floridians should prepare for more power outages and disruptions, making sure they have a week’s worth of food and water and are ready to hit the road. 

The Federal Emergency Management Agency, meanwhile, coordinated with the governor and briefed President Biden Sunday on how it has staged lifesaving resources.

“I highly encourage you to evacuate” if you’re in an evacuation zone, said Kevin Guthrie, executive director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management. “We are preparing … for the largest evacuation that we have seen, most likely since 2017, Hurricane Irma. “

As many as 4,000 National Guard troops are helping state crews to remove debris, DeSantis said.

“All available state assets … are being marshaled to help remove debris,” DeSantis said. “We’re going 24-7 … it’s all hands on deck.”



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American and U.K. climbers rescued after 2 days stranded on Himalayan mountains in India

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An American climber was rescued after she and another alpinist from the U.K. were stranded for two days at more than 20,000 feet in the Himalayan mountains.

Michelle Dvorak, 31, and Fay Manners, 37, went missing on Thursday after their equipment and food tumbled down a ravine while trekking up India’s Chaukhamba mountain, CBS News partner BBC reported.

The pair sent an emergency message but search and rescue teams were unable to find them.

Rescued British and U.S. climbers pose for a photo with rescuers in Joshimath, Uttarakhand
Rescued British and U.S. climbers pose for a photo with rescuers in Joshimath, Uttarakhand, India on October 6, 2024.

INDIAN AIR FORCE/Handout via REUTERS


Manners told the BBC they were “terrified” as they tried to make part of the descent down the treacherous mountains without supplies.

“I watched the bag tumble down the mountain and I immediately knew the consequence of what was to come,” she said. “We had none of our safety equipment left. No tent. No stove to melt snow for water. No warm clothes for the evening.”

The terrifying ordeal intensified when it started to snow. They took cover on a ledge while waiting for rescuers.

“I felt hypothermic, constantly shaking and with the lack of food my body was running out of energy to keep warm,” Manners said.

The rescue was made difficult because of the conditions, including bad weather, fog and high altitude.

“The helicopter flew passed again, couldn’t see us. We were destroyed,” Manners told the BBC.

British and U.S. climbers are rescued at the location given as Uttarakhand
British and U.S. climbers are rescued at the location given as Uttarakhand, India on October 6, 2024.

INDIAN AIR FORCE/Handout via REUTERS


On the second day, the pair began to cautiously abseil down the mountain. They spotted a team of French climbers coming toward them. Manners said they shared their equipment and food and contacted the helicopter company with an exact location.

“I cried with relief knowing we might survive,” she said.

The Indian Air Force said in a post on the X social media platform that their helicopter airlifted the climbers from 17,400 feet after “battling two days of bad weather.”

Chaukhamba is a mountain massif in the Garhwal Himalaya in northern India.



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