With Christmas only a few days away, many Americans may be dreaming of a white Christmas, but few will end up walking in a winter wonderland. The warm and above-average temperatures in the weather forecast across the continental U.S. for Christmas week of 2024 are expected to keep any precipitation that falls as rain, not snow, for many parts of the country.  

Where is most likely to get snow on Christmas?

If you’re looking for fluffy white flakes, some spots have a better chance than others. 

This year, the only parts of the U.S. likely to see a white Christmas will be in the Rocky Mountains and along the U.S. border with Canada. That includes some northern areas of North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, upstate New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine.

Weather forecast for holiday travel

For those who are trying to travel on Monday, the more difficult regions will be in the Upper Midwest and in the northern Rockies. Falling snowflakes can be found in states like Idaho, western Montana, northern Minnesota, Wisconsin and northern Michigan. Interstate travel will be hazardous through parts of I-15, I-90, I-84, I-94 and I-75.  

The wintry weather conditions shift from the Great Lakes region into the Northeast on Tuesday. Cold air pushes through to bring upwards of a half a foot of snow to the interior Northeast.  

Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will bring rain showers to the Mississippi Valley. In the West, the next atmospheric river will deliver rain to the lower elevations, with snow falling in the Cascade Mountains. Hazardous interstate travel conditions will be found along I-5, I-90, I-94, I-80, I-81 and even parts of I-95 up the East Coast. 

Map of snow forecast for Christmas Day 2024

On Wednesday, Christmas Day, not many locations will see the fresh snowfall of picture-book holidays.  

The definition of a “white Christmas” by the National Weather Service is having at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. The only areas likely to meet that qualification on Christmas Day this year will be in the Rockies and along the U.S.-Canada border. 

The moisture from the atmospheric river in the West will move into the Rockies to bring light snow to the higher elevations.  

Elsewhere, rain showers stick around in the Mississippi Valley, making for a soggy Christmas Day. Temperatures are forecast to be well above the freezing mark most places, which means precipitation will mainly be rain. Messy travel on Christmas could be found along Interstate 40, I-55, I-40, I-70, I-80 and I-90.  

On Thursday, the next round of weather moves into the Northwest. Lower elevation rain can be expected along I-5, while in the interior Northwest.heavier snowfall is forecast in the Cascades and down into the Sierra Nevada mountains. Lingering rain showers continue in the Mississippi Valley and into parts of the Midwest. 

Are white Christmases getting rarer? 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has tracked snowfall data across the U.S. for years, and says there have been some notable changes over the past four decades, “consistent with the reality of long-term warming.” 

When comparing the average probability of Christmas snowfall from 1981-2010 to the period from 1991-2020, NOAA says, “More areas experienced decreases in their chances of a white Christmas than experienced increases.” 

The NOAA map below shows areas with the highest historic probability of seeing a white Christmas. Areas shaded in light blue have a higher than average chance, while the northern and mountain locations marked in white have historically had snow on Christmas at least 90% of the time. 

You can explore an interactive version of the map on NOAA’s website here.