CBS News
Trump maintains edge over Biden in battleground states on eve of GOP convention, CBS News poll finds
Donald Trump and the Republican Party will begin their convention week with a narrow but consistent advantage across the battleground states, which would translate into Trump being better positioned to win in the Electoral College right now.
Things essentially haven’t changed since the immediate aftermath of the debate, when sentiment shifted slightly toward Trump, so this remains a fairly stable contest in that regard.
These polls and estimates were completed before the shooting at the Trump rally Saturday in Pennsylvania.
These state-level estimates are derived from CBS News’ statistical model, based on this survey of voters across the seven battleground states.
As has been the case for months, Trump benefits from the larger percentage of Republicans who say they’re likely to vote than Democrats to say they’ll turn out this year.
Across the battlegrounds, Mr. Biden continues to trail overwhelmingly among voters who do not think he has the cognitive and mental health to serve.
Despite positive macroeconomic measures and news about the U.S. economy, just half of voters say their own financial situation is good, and Trump benefits from winning the votes of people who say their incomes have not kept up with inflation.
National picture: Biden and the Democrats
Meanwhile, in our separate national survey that takes a look at Democrats and a look ahead to what Republicans want at the convention:
This week, neither the continued discussion over whether Mr. Biden should step aside as the party’s nominee, nor his pushback against the idea, has moved the needle on that topic much either way.
Almost half of Democrats say he should — only slightly higher than it was right after the debate.
When Democratic voters are asked to turn into campaign strategists, there’s no consensus about how a hypothetical Kamala Harris candidacy might fare in terms of her electoral fortunes.
But views on it are strongly related to views about Mr. Biden: those who think Harris would do better against Trump do think Mr. Biden ought to step down.
Trump and his VP
In another sign of how this is Donald Trump’s party: after cruising through the primaries, there is greater satisfaction among rank-and-file Republicans with having Trump as the nominee today than there was when he first won the nomination in 2016. Twice as many Republicans are excited about it today than they were then.
With Trump expected to soon reveal his choice of a running mate, Republican voters would generally be satisfied — but not necessarily enthusiastic — about some reportedly being considered. Many voters aren’t sure either way, which is not surprising before a convention.
(Nikki Haley, who is reportedly not on that list, would draw the most dissatisfaction and would especially disappoint MAGA Republicans.)
Their nominee’s prospects may be looking up, but Republicans voice continuing suspicion about the electoral process.
Fully half the party already says they should challenge the results if Trump does not win this year.
As they have since the last election, a large majority of Republicans do not believe Biden was legitimately elected in 2020, and most believe there was widespread fraud in the vote.
Overall, attention to the campaign remains up after the debate, with about six in 10 registered voters saying they’re thinking “a lot” about the 2024 race these days.
Data and results above are based on the following:
Battleground states survey: This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a representative sample of 1,093 registered voters living in battleground states interviewed between July 5-12, 2024. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, and education, based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as past vote. The margin of error for the total sample is ±3.4 points. Battlegrounds: AZ GA MI NC NV PA WI.
State-level estimates of vote choice: The CBS statistical model applies multilevel regression with post-stratification to produce estimates of two-way support in each battleground state, incorporating survey responses, voter files, and U.S. Census data, as well as past vote in states.
National survey: This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a representative sample of 2,004 registered voters nationwide interviewed between July 10-13 , 2024. The data includes an oversample in self-identified Republicans. The sample was weighted by gender, age, race, and education, based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and Current Population Survey, as well as past vote. The margin of error for the total sample is ±2.8 points.
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Paul Whelan, freed in prisoner swap with Russia, tells other American detainees: “We’re coming for you”
Washington — Nearly seven weeks after the Russians handed over Paul Whelan on a tarmac in Ankara, Turkey, the Marine veteran stood on the steps of the U.S. Capitol with a message for other Americans who are held abroad.
“We’re coming for you,” he told reporters Tuesday night after he met with lawmakers. “It might take time, but we’re coming.”
Whelan said he spoke with lawmakers about how the government can better support detainees after they’re released.
“We spoke about how the next person’s experience could be better,” he said. “What the government could do for the next person that’s held hostage and comes home — the care and support that other people might need, especially people that are in a worse situation. There are people coming back that lived in the dirt without shoes for three years, people that were locked up in hideous conditions for 20 years. They need support.”
CBS News
The U.S. secured Whelan’s release in August in one of the largest prisoner swaps since the end of the Cold War. The complex deal came after months of sensitive negotiations between the U.S., Russia, Germany, Slovenia, Poland and Norway.
As part of the deal, Russia released 16 prisoners while the Western countries released eight Russians. Whelan was released alongside Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich, Russian-American radio journalist Alsu Kurmasheva and Vladimir Kara-Murza, a U.S. green card holder and Kremlin critic.
Whelan, who had been the longest-held American detainee in Russia, was arrested in December 2018 when he traveled to the country to attend a friend’s wedding. He was convicted of espionage in a secret trial and sentenced to 16 years in prison in 2020.
Whelan, his family and the U.S. government vehemently denied that he was a spy and accused Russia of using him as a political pawn. The U.S. government considered him to be wrongfully detained, a rare designation that put more government resources toward securing his release.
But a deal to secure his freedom was long elusive. He remained behind bars as Russia freed Marine veteran Trevor Reed and women’s basketball star Brittney Griner — both of whom were detained after Whelan’s arrest — in prisoner swaps with the U.S.
The U.S. said it pushed for his inclusion in both exchanges, but Russia refused. It led to Whelan advocating for his own release from a remote prison camp, calling government officials and journalists to make sure that he wasn’t forgotten.
When the plane carrying Whelan, Gershkovish and Kurmasheva landed in Maryland on Aug. 1, Whelan was the first to disembark. He was greeted by President Biden, who gave Whelan his American flag pin, and Vice President Kamala Harris.
“Whether he likes it or not, he changed the world,” Rep. Haley Stevens, a Michigan Democrat, told reporters Tuesday.
Whelan’s case and his family’s constant pressure on the U.S. government brought more attention to the cases of Americans who are wrongfully detained by foreign governments.
Haley said Whelan is a reminder to other Americans considering traveling to Russia that “you have a target on your back.”
Whelan said it’s been an adjustment acclimating to life back in the U.S., especially learning the latest technology like his iPhone 15.
“I was in a really remote part of Russia,” he said. “We really didn’t have much. The conditions were poor. The Russians said the poor conditions were part of the punishment. And coming back to see this sort of thing now is a bit of a shock, but it’s a good shock.”