CBS News
CBS News poll: Gender gap, enthusiasm, economy make for tight Harris-Trump race on Democratic convention eve
When Kamala Harris became the Democratic presidential nominee, the party saw a major surge in enthusiasm from its voters. It pulled the party into an effectively even race with Donald Trump and Republicans, and it has continued to motivate Democrats to vote today.
She and Trump are even across the battleground states that will decide the Electoral College, and now Harris has a 3-point edge nationally.
The late-changing campaign has also opened an historic dynamic, a race within the race to define both Harris and the key issues.
Trump, for his part, keeps a lot of his advantages: he leads with people who say the economy is a major factor, and he leads with voters who say they aren’t doing as well financially.
Yet voters tell us it’s about more issues than that — abortion, the state of democracy, the border among them — and the contest is marked by a pronounced gender gap between men and women and very different views of which candidate would help them.
Heading into the convention, many voters are still learning about Harris, creating a crucial test for the party this week. A third says they don’t yet know what she stands for. Most voters think her views are similar — but not entirely the same — as Joe Biden’s. And she’s somewhat — but not entirely — seen as connected to Mr. Biden’s economy.
Democrats have continued to close the gap with Republicans in expressing their intention to vote; today, they are effectively even with Republicans in saying so.
Behind the gender-gap election
The gender gap has grown a little more and is approaching 2020 levels now. But it’s more than a vote break. It underpins very different priorities and perceptions.
First, women are more likely than men to see Harris as someone who “fights for people like you” a lot. And women are likelier to see Harris than Trump as fighting for people like them.
Second, views on gender equality efforts connect to voting.
People who think efforts at promoting gender equality between men and women are going too far in America today are voting overwhelmingly for Trump. That’s especially the case for men who think so.
Those who think efforts to promote equally aren’t going far enough or are about right are for Harris.
Third, women help Harris on the economy more than they did Mr. Biden.
Though still trailing Trump on the issue, Harris is doing 8 points better than Mr. Biden was in June among women who say the economy is a major factor for them. She’s effectively even with Trump now among this group. She is also 7 points better from where Mr. Biden was in June among women who say inflation is a major factor.
Abortion: Deja-vu from ’22?
For rank-and-file Democrats, abortion and the state of democracy outpace the economy as major factors in their vote.
Pro-abortion rights voters may feel even better about Harris than about Mr. Biden, at least in terms of vote. She gets a higher vote share than he was getting among women who want abortion to be legal.
And 71% of voters think Harris will try to pass a national law protecting abortion.
Three-quarters of voters want mifepristone available. Nine in 10 believe Harris would make or keep it so, while seven in 10 say Trump will try to restrict access to it.
But Democrats are far more likely than independents or Republicans to call abortion a major factor.
Fewer voters overall say abortion is a “major factor” in their vote than say the economy is.
So a key metric to watch in this campaign is whether that view expands more beyond the party’s ranks.
The race to define Harris (And how much separation from Biden does she need?)
People know Trump, agree with him or not. Nearly nine in 10 voters say they know what he stands for.
But it’s a little less so for Harris, as she’s just become the nominee. Around a third say they don’t know what she stands for yet.
This adds another key to watch at the convention as Democrats try to define her message before the Trump campaign does.
People who think her policy views are entirely the same as Mr. Biden’s, who are mostly Republicans, are voting for Trump.
But Harris does better among voters who think her views are mostly but not entirely the same as Mr. Biden’s. This clearly goes for Democrats, but it goes for independents too.
How tied is she to Biden’s economy?
The economy has long been seen as bad, but Harris’ role as vice president is only somewhat tied to it.
Most voters across party lines say Harris’ decisions as vice president have impacted the U.S. economy at least some, but few say they have had “a lot” of impact.
Meanwhile, Trump leads in perceptions of being able to make food and grocery prices go down. This was measured largely prior to Harris laying out inflation plans in a Friday speech. However that sentiment looks to be driven more by general confidence than by any particular policy.
When we follow up with voters who think Trump winning means lower grocery prices for them and ask why, most say it’s mainly because of a “general confidence” they have in Trump rather than specific policies they’ve heard him propose.
Whether Trump can keep or expand that gap, or Harris can start to close it, could be another key item to watch at the convention and in the coming weeks.
How tied is she to the border?
Trump remains overwhelmingly seen by voters as having policies that would reduce border crossings.
Trump also leads among those who say the border is a major factor in their vote. In fact it is the largest lead he has among any issue group, even higher than inflation. (That’s partially because Republicans overwhelmingly call it a factor.)
Harris is somewhat, but not entirely, tied to U.S. border policy: a third think her decisions as vice president had “a lot” to do with the current situation. While this is largely driven by Republicans, this is higher than the number of voters that connect her decisions as vice president to the economy.
But border crossing attempts are reportedly down, and the percentage of voters calling the border a crisis, while still high, is down slightly from the spring.
For all that, so much of this contest is already locked in. Very few voters express openness to considering another candidate — more evidence this will probably be decided by turnout.
So, for Democrats, the convention will in part be about maintaining that enthusiasm among the base.
Updated state-level estimates from CBS News’ statistical model show close races in all seven battlegrounds — they are all well within the margin of error, with both Harris and Trump in position to win if the election were today.
Here’s how the issues shape up relating to vote choice. Voters can identify multiple items as factors in their decision.
And that all leads into the Democrats’ convention as a guide to what to watch, as they — and Republicans countering it — compete in the contest within the contest to define what 2024 will ultimately be about.
This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a representative sample of 3,258 registered voters nationwide interviewed between August 14-16, 2024. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the U.S. Census American Community Survey and the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, as well as past vote. Respondents were selected to be representative of registered voters nationwide. The margin of error for registered voters is ±2.1 points.
Watch CBS News
Be the first to know
Get browser notifications for breaking news, live events, and exclusive reporting.
CBS News
Sen. Duckworth says Trump defense secretary pick is “flat-out wrong” about women in combat roles
Democratic Sen. Tammy Duckworth said Sunday that Pete Hegseth, President-elect Donald Trump’s pick for defense secretary is “flat-out wrong” in his view that women should not serve in the military in combat roles.
“Our military could not go to war without the women who wear this uniform,” Duckworth said on “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan.” “And frankly, America’s daughters are just as capable of defending liberty and freedom as her sons.”
Trump tapped Hegseth, a former Fox News host and Army veteran who served in Iraq and Afghanistan as his pick to head the Defense Department earlier this month. The 44-year-old has drawn criticism for his stance on women in combat roles, along with his level of experience.
Duckworth, who in 2004 deployed to Iraq as a Blackhawk helicopter pilot and sustained severe injuries when her helicopter was hit by an RPG, outlined that women who serve in combat roles have met the same standards as men, passing rigorous testing. She said Hegseth’s position “just shows his lack of understanding of where our military is,” while arguing that he’s “inordinately unqualified for the position.”
CBS News
“Our military could not go to war without the 220,000-plus women who serve in uniform,” Duckworth said. She added that having women in the military “does make us more effective, does make us more lethal.”
Hegseth has also drawn scrutiny amid recently unearthed details about an investigation into an alleged sexual assault in 2017. Hegseth denies the allegation and characterized the incident as a consensual encounter. The Monterey County district attorney’s office declined to file charges as none were “supported by proof beyond a reasonable doubt.” His lawyer has acknowledged that Hegseth paid a confidential financial settlement to the woman out of concern that the allegation would jeopardize his employment.
Duckworth, an Illinois Democrat who serves on the Armed Services and Foreign Relations Committees, said it’s “really troubling” that Trump would nominate someone who “has admitted that he’s paid off a victim who has claimed rape allegations against him.”
“This is not the kind of person you want to lead the Department of Defense,” she added.
The comments come after Trump announced a slew of picks for top posts in his administration in recent days. Meanwhile, one pick — former Rep. Matt Gaetz for attorney general — has already withdrawn his name from consideration after he faced intense scrutiny amid a House Ethics Committee investigation and a tenuous path to Senate confirmation.
While Duckworth acknowledged that she’s glad her Senate Republicans “held the line” on Gaetz and also elected Sen. John Thune as leader over a candidate favored by many in Trump’s orbit, she said she’s “deeply concerned” her Republican colleagues will green light Trump’s nominees.
“From what I’m hearing from my Republican colleagues on everything from defense secretary to other posts, it sounds like they are ready to roll over for Mr. Trump,” Duckworth said.
But Duckworth didn’t rule out supporting some of the nominees herself during the Senate confirmation process, pledged to evaluate each candidate based on their ability to do the job, and their willingness to put the needs of the American people before “a retribution campaign for Mr. Trump.”
Meanwhile, a CBS News poll released on Sunday found that 33% of Americans say Hegseth is a “good choice” for defense secretary, including 64% of Trump voters. But 39% of Americans said they hadn’t heard enough yet about the pick. More broadly, Americans generally say they want Trump to appoint people who’ll speak their minds and who have experience in the field or agency they’ll run.
Sen. Rand Paul, a Kentucky Republican who also appeared on “Face the Nation” on Sunday, said he believes that Hegseth can run the massive Defense Department, despite his lack of experience managing a large organization. Though he did not address Hegseth’s comments about women in combat roles, Paul said he believes the “vast majority of people” support leaders who are picked based on merit, citing Hegseth’s criticism of the Pentagon for what he says has been a move away from merit-based hiring and toward hiring based on “racial characteristics.”
Hezbollah fired at least 185 rockets and other projectiles into Israel on Sunday, wounding seven people in the militant group’s heaviest barrage in several days, in response to deadly Israeli strikes in Beirut while negotiators pressed on with cease-fire efforts to halt the war.
Meanwhile, an Israeli strike on a Lebanese army center killed one soldier and wounded 18 others on the southwestern coastal road between Tyre and Naqoura, Lebanon’s military said. Israel’s military expressed regret and said the strike occurred in an area of combat against Hezbollah, adding that its operations are directed solely against the militants. The strike was under review.
Hussein Malla / AP
Israeli strikes have killed over 40 Lebanese troops since the start of the war between Israel and Hezbollah, even as Lebanon’s military has largely kept to the sidelines.
Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati, condemned it as an assault on U.S.-led cease-fire efforts, calling it a “direct, bloody message rejecting all efforts and ongoing contacts” to end the war.
“(Israel is) again writing in Lebanese blood a brazen rejection of the solution that is being discussed,” a statement from his office read.
The strike occurred in southwestern Lebanon on the coastal road between Tyre and Naqoura, where there has been heavy fighting between Israel and Hezbollah.
Hezbollah began firing rockets, missiles and drones into Israel after Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack out of the Gaza Strip ignited the war there. Hezbollah has portrayed the attacks as an act of solidarity with the Palestinians and Hamas. Iran supports both armed groups.
Israel has launched retaliatory airstrikes since the rocket fire began, and in September the low-level conflict erupted into all-out war, as Israel launched waves of airstrikes across large parts of Lebanon and killed Hezbollah’s top leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and several of his top commanders.
Hezbollah fired a total of around 160 rockets and other projectiles into Israel on Sunday, some of which were intercepted, the Israeli military said.
Oded Balilty / AP
Israel’s Magen David Adom rescue service said it was treating two people in the central city of Petah Tikva, a 23-year-old man who was lightly wounded by a blast and a 70-year-old woman suffering from smoke inhalation from a car that caught fire. The first responders said they treated three other people in northern Israel, closer to the border, including a 60-year-old man in serious condition.
It was unclear whether the injuries and damage were caused by the rockets or interceptors.
Israeli airstrikes early Saturday pounded central Beirut, killing at least 20 people and wounding 66, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry.
Israeli attacks have killed more than 3,500 people in Lebanon, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry. The fighting has displaced about 1.2 million people, or a quarter of Lebanon’s population.
On the Israeli side, about 90 soldiers and nearly 50 civilians have been killed by bombardments in northern Israel and in battle following Israel’s ground invasion in early October. Around 60,000 Israelis have been displaced from the country’s north.
The Biden administration has spent months trying to broker a cease-fire, and U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein was back in the region last week.
The European Union’s top diplomat called for more pressure on both Israel and Hezbollah to reach a deal, saying one was “pending with a final agreement from the Israeli government.”
Josep Borrell spoke Sunday after meeting with Mikati and Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally who has been mediating with the group.
Borrell said the EU is ready to allocate 200 million euros ($208m) to assist the Lebanese military, which would deploy additional forces to the south.
The emerging agreement would pave the way for the withdrawal of Hezbollah militants and Israeli troops from southern Lebanon below the Litani River in accordance with the U.N. Security Council resolution that ended the 2006 war. Lebanese troops would patrol the area, with the presence of U.N. peacekeepers.
Lebanon’s army reflects the religious diversity of the country and is respected as a national institution, but it does not have the military capability to impose its will on Hezbollah or resist Israel’s invasion.
Sen. Tammy Duckworth says Pete Hegseth is “flat-out wrong” about women in combat roles
Sen. Duckworth says Trump defense secretary pick is “flat-out wrong” about women in combat roles
Israeli strike kills Lebanese soldier as Hezbollah fires at least 185 rockets at Israel
Sen. Tammy Duckworth says Pete Hegseth is “flat-out wrong” about women in combat roles
Sen. Duckworth says Trump defense secretary pick is “flat-out wrong” about women in combat roles