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These middle-class jobs are shrinking, and could one day disappear
Dozens of occupations that collectively employ hundreds of thousands of Americans in decent-paying jobs are likely to shrink over the next decade, according to recent government data.
These jobs face a range of challenges, from the impact of artificial intelligence to changing consumer habits that will result in fewer workers needed to fill jobs. All together, these generally middle-class professions — which pay from $40,000 on the low end to more than $100,000 a year — are forecast to shed more than 600,000 jobs by 2033, figures from the Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics show.
The projections highlight the shifting nature of the labor market, which overall is projected to add 6.7 million new jobs through 2033, the BLS said in an August 29 report. But even as employment continues to grow in the U.S., winners and losers are set to emerge, with experts pointing to growth in careers that will require postsecondary training or education, such as professional certificates or college degrees.
“There are many types of jobs that will disappear”
Most shrinking middle-class jobs only require a high school degree to enter the field, with experts noting that better-paying careers that are growing now generally require higher levels of education.
“It’s the evolution of the world of work,” noted Nicole Smith, chief economist at Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce. “There is a transitioning happening in the labor market, with many new jobs requiring postsecondary credentials.”
She added, “There are many types of jobs that will disappear.” But workers that remain in these occupations will likely have the skills to adapt to new technology, such as artificial intelligence or other forms of automation, she added.
To be sure, such shifts are nothing new. The American labor market is perpetually changing, with the U.S. largely transitioning from an agricultural and manufacturing economy in the 19th and early 20th centuries into today’s service-based economy. But periods of change can be painful for workers, who are often caught unprepared or unable to move into new professions.
Among the top losers are likely to be people working in entry-level office jobs, such as clerks who answer telephones, schedule appointments or file paperwork, according to the Labor Department. This occupation is forecast to shed 6% of its employees by 2033 — a loss of nearly 150,000 jobs — representing a continuation of job losses that began years ago due to changes in technology and automation.
“Many clerks will struggle to transition to new jobs, especially if they lack the necessary skills for higher-paying or more technical roles that are in higher demand,” ZipRecruiter chief economist Julia Pollak told CBS MoneyWatch.
Demand is also projected to dwindle for computer programmers — once viewed as a ticket to a good-paying career — with the BLS forecasting the occupation will shed 10% of its workers by 2033. The main reason: Automation is making coders more efficient, which means employers will require fewer programmers over time.
Even so, many STEM-related jobs are also forecast to surge, with the BLS projecting that the economy will add more than 300,000 new software developers in the next decade.
Education required
About 15.2 million new middle-class jobs will be created through 2031, according to a July report from Georgetown’s Center on Education and the Workforce, which defines these roles as paying at least $43,000 annually.
But the lion’s share of those new jobs will be held by workers with postsecondary education, including a bachelor’s degree, associates degree or a training certificate, the researchers noted. Some good jobs will be still available to people with only high school diplomas, but these will be focused in blue-collar jobs such as transportation and construction, Georgetown found.
At the same time, many Americans are questioning the value of a college degree, with more people saying they don’t feel the cost is worth it. Only about 1 in 4 Americans say a bachelor’s degree is necessary to secure a good-paying job, according to a March survey from the Pew Research Center.
Still, Georgetown’s analysis finds it will likely get harder to secure a good job without some sort of additional educational attainment beyond high school.
“There is pushback against everyone having a bachelor’s degree,” Smith noted. But, she added, “The trouble comes when we say no degree is required at all.”
Where middle-class jobs are growing
While dozens of fields offering decent pay are likely to shed workers over the next decade, there are plenty of occupations where demand for skilled workers is expected to surge. Many of them will require postsecondary credentials, from bachelor’s degrees to apprenticeships.
For instance, the CHIPS and Science Act is resulting in billions invested in new semiconductor plants in the U.S. Those facilities are expected to hire tens of thousands of workers, but many of these jobs will require specialized training, unlike many manufacturing jobs from earlier eras.
“They require you to sit down in a community college for six months to a year to be able to man those machines,” Smith said. “You don’t walk out of high school with those skills.”
Police arrested a man on murder charges this month, 14 years after he allegedly killed a man in Virginia, but the victim’s body has never been found.
Shane Ryan Donahue, a Virginia man, is presumed deceased, the Prince William County Police Department said Tuesday. He was last seen leaving his parents’ home in Nokesville, Virginia, on March 22, 2010. Donahue, 23, was headed to his house in Nokesville, but never made it there.
Donahue was added to the National Missing and Unidentified Persons System after he vanished. According to records, Donahue did not have a car and regularly got rides from friends. He frequented Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Fauquier County, Virginia, and Northern Virginia.
The case stumped investigators, who followed a number of leads over the years. This spring, detectives reactivated the investigation and started looking at every detail of the case from scratch, officials said. They revisited people who had been interviewed during the initial investigation and reviewed “digital evidence in greater detail due to advances in analytical technology and modern police investigative practices,” according to a news release.
Officers said Donahue was last seen leaving his parents’ home with Timothy Sean Hickerson, now a 43-year-old Florida resident. Investigators connected Hickerson to a burglary at Donahue’s home that happened just days before the Virginia man disappeared.
Detectives got an arrest warrant this month and, with the help of Florida’s Flagler County Sheriff’s Office, Hickerson was taken into custody in Palm Coast, Florida. Hickerson was charged with murder and burglary, is now set to be extradited to Virginia.
Former President Donald Trump, an avowed proponent of tax cuts, is floating the idea of reversing a measure passed during his tenure in the White House that effectively raised taxes for many U.S. homeowners.
In a post Tuesday on Truth Social, Trump suggested he would scrap a $10,000 cap on deducting state and local taxes (SALT) that was passed as part of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act — a massive revamp that he has said boosted economic growth.
Now, in the run-up to the November election, Trump said in the post he would “get SALT back, lower your taxes, and so much more,” although he stopped short of offering details. Trump made the post ahead of a speech he’s giving Wednesday at the Nassau Coliseum on Long Island.
Trump’s new proposal for getting rid of his $10,000 SALT deduction cap comes as the presidential hopeful is pitching several additional tax cuts that would, if enacted, reduce taxes for major groups of voters. He’s also vowed to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits, a pledge that could get support from the nation’s senior citizens, as well as to end income taxes on tipped workers and on overtime pay, ideas that would help lower- and middle-income Americans.
Yet Trump’s reversal on the SALT deduction has sparked skepticism from lawmakers as well as economists and policy experts.
“So … now Trump is against the SALT tax cap which *checks notes* is a key part of the — only — major piece of legislation passed during his administration?” noted Chris Koski, a political science professor at Reed College in Portland, Oregon, on X.
Rep. Tom Suozzi, a Democrat from Nassau, Queens, said in a statement on Wednesday that he is “happy that the former president is saying that he has finally reversed his devastating decision in 2017 to cap the State and Local Tax (SALT) deduction.” He also urged Trump to convince Republican lawmakers to vote to restore the full deduction “if he is truly serious.”
The SALT deduction cap “has been a body blow to my constituents for the past 7 years,” Suozzi added.
Senator Chuck Schumer, a Democrat from New York, wrote on X,”Donald Trump took away your SALT dedications and hurt so many Long Island families. Now, he’s coming to Long Island to pretend he supports SALT. It won’t work.”
Asked for details about Trump’s proposal to restore the SALT writeoff, a spokeswoman for the Trump campaign told CBS MoneyWatch: “While his pro-growth, pro-energy policies will make life affordable again, President Trump is also going to quickly move tax relief for working people and seniors.”
Here’s what to know about the SALT deduction.
What is the SALT deduction?
The state and local tax deduction allows taxpayers who itemize to deduct property taxes, sales taxes and state or local income taxes from their federal income taxes. Prior to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, there was no limit on how much people could deduct through the SALT deduction.
But the 2017 tax overhaul passed under Trump limited the deduction to $10,000 – a blow to many homeowners in states with high property taxes, many of which are Democratic leaning. At the time of the law’s passage, the Treasury Department estimated that almost 11 million taxpayers in high-tax states like New York and New Jersey would forfeit $323 billion in deductions.
Who benefits from the SALT deduction?
Homeowners with high property taxes, such as people in New York, New Jersey and California, were the biggest beneficiaries of the the full SALT deduction.
But some experts also noted that the SALT deduction primarily put more money in the pockets of higher-earning Americans. About 80% of the full SALT deduction had helped people earning more than $100,000 a year, according to the Tax Foundation.
What happened after Trump capped the SALT deduction at $10,000?
The limit has increasingly impacted middle-class homeowners across the U.S. because of rising property taxes and incomes. Some lawmakers have also sought to either repeal or increase the SALT cap, but none of those efforts have borne fruit.
Earlier this year, some lawmakers sought to double the SALT deduction cap to $20,000 for married couples, with the change retroactive for the 2023 tax year. But that bill was blocked in the House in February.
Won’t the SALT deduction cap expire anyway?
Yes, the SALT deduction cap is a provision that’s due to expire in 2025, as are many other parts of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, such as a reduction of the individual tax brackets. But Trump has previously indicated he wants to extend the provisions in his signature tax law.
How much would it cost the U.S. to repeal the SALT deduction cap?
It won’t be cheap, according to the the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a think tank that focuses on budget and policy issues.
Eliminating the $10,000 deduction limit “would increase the cost of extending the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) by $1.2 trillion over a decade,” the group estimates, adding that such a measure would be a “costly mistake.”
Extending the TCJA’s tax cuts would increase the nation’s deficit by $3.9 trillion over the next decade, the group estimates. By adding in a expiration or repeal of the SALT deduction cap, that would grow to $5.1 trillion, it added.
“Lawmakers should not extend the TCJA without a plan to – at a minimum – offset the costs of extension, but ideally the plan would raise revenues relative to current law and help put the nation’s debt on a better trajectory,” the group said in a statement.
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