Homebuyers and homeowners looking to refinance both received positive news earlier this month when mortgage interest rates plunged to their lowest level in two years. That drop was partially due to the expectation that the Federal Reserve would cut its federal funds rate. And the Fed did take that action later the same day, making a larger-than-expected 50 basis points cut. Still, most (if not all) of that cut had already been priced in in advance by mortgage lenders. That leads to the question, then, about when mortgage interest rates will fall again.

Predicting the rate changes for any product can be difficult, if not impossible (especially for mortgage interest rates which are influenced by a variety of factors besides just the Federal Reserve). But that doesn’t mean that buyers and owners can’t still get an approximate idea of when rates will adjust downward. Below, we’ll detail three calendar dates to monitor in which rates could fall.

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When will mortgage interest rates fall again?

With so many factors driving mortgage interest rates, it’s worth monitoring each day. But the following three dates could be particularly influential:

October 3, 2024

Intercontinental Exchange Inc (ICE), a closely followed financial services company that monitors mortgage activity, will release it’s next mortgage monitor report on this date. And it could be an interesting one now that mortgage rates are consistently cooling. Review it, then, for information on trends, home prices and buyer sentiment, specifically. Lenders will also be reviewing it to gauge any movement they want to get ahead of and, accordingly, could start lowering their mortgage rates in response.

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October 4, 2024

Unemployment data for the month prior is typically released on the first Friday of a new month. So keep an eye out when September numbers are released on Friday, October 4. While it may seem unrelated to mortgage rates on the surface, a problematic report there showing muted growth, or, worse, an increase in unemployment figures, could play into Fed considerations about additional rate cuts. Mortgage lenders, then, could start pricing in additional reductions in advance. So poor unemployment news on this date could lead to further mortgage rate adjustments that Friday and in the week after.

October 10, 2024

October 10 will be the day the next inflation report is released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Further cooling in the rate there could make the Fed feel more comfortable reducing interest rates again when they meet in November (there’s no Fed meeting scheduled for October). This data will go a long way toward informing the Fed’s long-term approach to rates since it’ll be the first round of inflation data to be released post-September rate cut. Watch it carefully. 

The bottom line

October 3, 4, and 10 could all be days in which mortgage rates may fall again. But while rates may make bigger moves on these dates than some other upcoming ones, the overall climate is a fluid one right now and both buyers and owners should take a more proactive approach as a result. After years of waiting for mortgage rates to finally become affordable again, the time to act could be now for some buyers, or just weeks away for others.

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