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Austria election results put far-right Freedom Party on top, but leader Herbert Kickl faces coalition hurdles
Berlin — Austria’s far-right Freedom Party (FPO) emerged Monday as the winners in national parliamentary elections, marking a first victory for a far-right Austrian party since World War II. The Freedom Party, led by Herbert Kickl, secured 29.2% of the vote, topping the center-right Austrian People’s Party with 26.5% and the Social Democrats with 21%.
The far-right win reflects a broader European trend of rising popularity for nationalist, anti-immigration parties, fueled by public frustration over issues including inflation, the war in Ukraine and rising migrant populations.
Kickl’s party has drawn widespread attention for its anti-immigrant, nationalist rhetoric, with the party campaigning on a vow to seal the country’s borders to create “Fortress Austria.”
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The Freedom Party has promised a crackdown on immigration, including the forced “remigration” of non-Austrian nationals and stricter control over asylum laws. Kickl, a former interior minister, has also been critical of Austria’s participation in international sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.
The party leader has promised to lead Austria as a “Volkskanzler,” or chancellor of the people — a term used by the German Nazi party to refer to Adolf Hitler. His campaign leaned heavily on nationalist sentiment, with promises to restrict immigration and distance Austria from European Union policies on Ukraine and Russia.
The results of Austria’s vote largely mirror the trend seen in recent elections in neighboring Germany, where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party made significant gains. The AfD won big in rural areas in Germany’s state elections, taking more than 30% of the vote in the states of Thuringia and Saxony.
Despite its victory, the Freedom Party did not win anywhere near enough of the vote to form a new government on its own, so it will need to find partners to build a governing coalition. That is certain to prove a challenge.
Austria’s other major parties, including the center-right FPO and the Social Democrats, have already said they will not form a coalition with the far-right, raising doubts about the path to power for Kickl’s party. Without a coalition partner, the Freedom Party may struggle to build the necessary majority in parliament to for the next government.
The same situation is faced by the AfD in Germany, where the party’s rise has been met with firm opposition from the established parties, making it difficult for them to participate in government.
The election results also highlight the decline of the center-right in Austria, which has been in power in various coalitions for the last decade.
Current Chancellor Karl Nehammer, who led the People’s Party to second place on Sunday, saw his party lose significant ground compared to its 2019 results, as many Austrians appeared to blame the center-right movement for Austria’s economic challenges and some controversial policies, including a temporary COVID vaccine mandate.
Germany’s Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his Social Democrat SPD also saw their popularity wane in the recent state elections in the eastern states of Saxony and Thuringia.
Kickl’s ascent has not been without controversy, including allegations during his tenure as interior minister that the FPO was involved in the 2019 “Ibiza Affair,” a corruption scandal that brought down the Freedom Party’s last coalition government with the center-right.
But he has, since then, helped rebuild the party’s reputation – much like the AfD in Germany, in part by positioning it as a defender of national sovereignty and staunch critic of the EU.
Both Kickl and his counterparts in Germany now face major hurdles in converting their electoral success into governance.
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“Rust” armorer’s involuntary manslaughter conviction upheld in fatal on set shooting by Alec Baldwin
An involuntary manslaughter conviction against the armorer in the fatal shooting of a cinematographer by Alec Baldwin on the set of the Western film “Rust” was upheld by a New Mexico judge on Monday.
Armorer Hannah Gutierrez-Reed, who was responsible for providing dummy and blank rounds to the movie set, sought to dismiss her conviction or convene a new trial in the shooting death, alleging misconduct and suppression of evidence by law enforcement. She filed her request days after Baldwin’s own trial over the 2021 fatal shooting of cinematographer Halyna Hutchins on the set outside Santa Fe collapsed due to withheld evidence.
Gutierrez-Reed was convicted by a jury in March in a trial overseen by Judge Mary Marlowe Sommer, who later sentenced her to the maximum 18-month penalty. Gutierrez-Reed already has an appeal of her involuntary manslaughter conviction pending in a higher court.
Jim Weber / AP
Prosecutors blamed Gutierrez-Reed for unwittingly bringing live ammunition onto the set of “Rust” and for failing to follow basic gun safety protocols.
Gutierrez-Reed’s attorneys argued that her case should be reconsidered because prosecutors failed to share evidence that might have been exculpatory.
She was acquitted at trial of allegations she tampered with evidence in the “Rust” investigation. Gutierrez-Reed also has pleaded not guilty to a separate felony charge that she allegedly carried a gun into a bar in Santa Fe, New Mexico, where firearms are prohibited. A proposed plea agreement is awaiting court review.
Baldwin, the lead actor and co-producer for “Rust,” was pointing a gun at Hutchins during a rehearsal on a movie set outside Santa Fe in October 2021 when the revolver went off, killing Hutchins and wounding director Joel Souza.
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Mortgage interest rates aren’t perfect right now but they’re certainly becoming a lot more favorable for borrowers. After surging to their highest level in more than 20 years in 2023, mortgage rates have since dropped by more than a full percentage point on average. In mid-September, they fell to their lowest level in more than two years. And that’s before presumed additional rate cuts to come courtesy of the Federal Reserve in November and December.
But there is no Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for October, so borrowers hoping for some relief via that channel will need to look elsewhere. That doesn’t mean that mortgage interest rates can’t still fall in the month, though. It may just be as a result of activity unrelated to the Fed.
So what could make mortgage interest rates fall further in October? Below, we’ll detail three things buyers should watch for.
In the market to buy a home? See how low of a mortgage interest rate you could secure now.
What could make mortgage interest rates drop in October?
While predicting the future of mortgage interest rates is inherently difficult, there are some factors to take into consideration that could cause mortgage rates to fall further in October. Here are three to know now:
Unemployment numbers
Unemployment statistics for September will be released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday, October 4. A rise in the unemployment rate for that period or any revisions that show a wider, growing issue with employment could be an indicator that further Fed action is required to help the economy. Understanding this dynamic, then, lenders may preemptively begin lowering their mortgage rate offers in response. It may not be a substantial reduction — and it may be temporary — but it could mean a lower rate than today’s average of 6.21%.
Start reviewing your current mortgage rate options online today.
Cooling inflation
A continually cooling inflation rate will give the Fed the confidence it requires to issue additional rate cuts. When the next inflation report is released on October 10, then, mortgage rates could fall again if the latest inflation numbers show additional progress toward getting the rate down to the Fed’s target 2% goal. Remember that mortgage interest rates change daily, so while they may appear unchanged when the report’s released, they could be markedly different the next day and in the days after.
Broader market uncertainty
While not clearly defined and without a specific correlation to mortgage rates, broader market uncertainty could also contribute to a moderate drop in mortgage interest rates in October. With geopolitical concerns elevated right now and a looming presidential election in the U.S. barely a month away, lenders may started adjusting their mortgage rate offers to better prepare for any volatility in the final months of the year.
Similarly, any public comments from Fed officials about the future of rate cuts could cause lenders to reconsider their current mortgage rates and adjust them downward again. And, as has been seen in recent years with the pandemic, unforeseen events could cause dramatic changes to the lending environment as well.
The bottom line
Predicting the future of mortgage rates is an inexact science heavily reliant upon speculation. But with new data tied to unemployment and inflation set to be released in October, as well as some broader economic trends tied to both geopolitical and domestic concerns, there’s enough action taking place in the month that could encourage lenders to lower mortgage interest rate offers yet again. But you’ll need to monitor the rate climate closely to take advantage and start taking certain steps now, like improving your credit score, so you’re truly prepared to act when the opportunity presents itself.
Have more questions? Learn more about your mortgage options here now.
