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Holiday creep starts even earlier this year, with shorter selling window for retailers
Get ready for holiday merchandise to hit store shelves earlier than usual this year, and for retailers to roll out seasonal promotions well before temperatures drop. Discounted pricing once reserved for Black Friday and Cyber Monday is now going into effect in early October.
“Holiday creep,” the term for when retailers start selling holiday-themed items before the traditional start of the season, is a phenomenon that’s been at play for years, as retailers try to get a jump-start on sales.
This year, given that the window between Thanksgiving and Christmas is almost one week shorter compared with last, stores will have even less time to clear merchandise from shelves and capture consumers’ dollars. To make up for that time, they’re hosting holiday sales events as early as the beginning of October, before the leaves have even started to fall in many places.
For example, Wayfair hosted is hosting its seasonal sales event, Way Day, on October 5 through October 9. Target Circle Week runs from October 6 through October 12, and Amazon Prime Big Deals Day will be held on October 8 and 9.
Walmart this year released its “Top Toys List” on September 9-15, to start tempting customers weeks before Santa’s arrival. “‘Tis the season for toys!” read a press release announcing the list.
“It’s been an ongoing retail movement over the last few years of bringing sales forward, it’s ‘holiday creep,’ or ‘Black October’ — whatever you want to call it,” said Adam Davis, managing director of Wells Fargo retail finance, told CBS MoneyWatch. “Retailers are trying to maximize sales by elongating the season to get as much share of wallet as possible.”Getting ahead of the Black Friday crowd
Another reason for holiday creep? Limited consumer spending dollars. Most shoppers have fixed budgets, or set dollar amounts they’re willing to spend on holiday merchandise and gifts. So, retailers compete with one another for consumers’ precious dollars. If they’ve blown through their budgets before Thanksgiving arrives, stores that wait until Black Friday to reveal deals will have missed an opportunity to lure them in.
“There’s a finite budget, for the most part, of what consumers are willing to spend. And retailers want to capture their dollars earlier in the season, so they don’t get caught up in the clutter of Black Friday and Cyber Monday, being one of many companies promoting deals and getting lost in the mix,” Davis said.
In other words, consumers don’t have to wait until Black Friday to look for sales on winter coats, toys and appliances.
“A lot of direct-to-consumer companies are following the lead of Amazon, which has its big Prime Day coming up. They are following suit because they don’t want to lose out on extra traffic from consumers,” Davis added.
This year, aggressive promotions start now
Still, early price cuts aren’t usually as deep as those introduced around Black Friday and Cyber Monday, by which time retailers panic if they haven’t sold a substantial amount of their inventory. If consumers take their chances and wait until after Christmas to start shopping, they could secure even better deals, but there’s no guarantee that product will be available.
“Retailers like to grab customers now, in early October and November, because they can sell product at higher margins than after Thanksgiving, when they’re in panic mode because sales aren’t there and they need to rapidly discount things,” Davis explained.
Retail expert Mark A. Cohen, former director of retail studies at Columbia Business School, said that while promotional creep is as intrinsic to the holiday season as Christmas jingles, “it does get a little bit more pronounced when the calendar shifts to compress the Thanksgiving to Christmas season.”
“The march to a successful outcome is underway. And whereas traditionally, retailers would keep their promotional behavior under wraps and protect their gross margins, I think now they are more insecure than they have ever been and don’t want to have any excess inventory coming out of holiday season,” he said. “So they are promoting aggressively now.”
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Gold has been a standout performer in the financial markets this year, with prices climbing rapidly and setting new records. At the start of the year, gold was trading at just above $2,000 per ounce, but its value has soared past multiple milestones in recent months, and, today, gold prices hover above $2,650 per ounce. This upward trend has resulted in big rewards for early investors who saw the precious metal as a safe haven in uncertain economic times. Those who got in before prices surged are now enjoying substantial gains.
For investors who have yet to buy gold, though, the current high prices present a dilemma. Many are hesitant to jump in at a time when the price is near a record high and are instead waiting in hopes that prices will retreat, allowing them to purchase gold at a discount. This cautious approach makes sense in traditional investing logic. After all, buying low and selling high is the golden rule. But in the case of gold, waiting for lower prices may not be as wise as it seems.
While it’s tempting to wait for a price drop, the reality is that this gold investing strategy could be fraught with risks — especially right now. Below, we’ll analyze why.
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3 big risks of waiting for gold prices to fall
Waiting for gold’s price to drop could be a risky bet for the following reasons:
Gold’s price may not drop substantially
One of the primary risks in waiting to buy gold at a lower price is the possibility that the anticipated dip may never happen — or may not be as substantial as you hope. Recent trends in the gold market have shown that while gold’s price may experience short-term fluctuations, these dips have not been drastic. Part of the reason is that gold tends to be highly resilient historically, particularly in times of economic uncertainty, like what we’re facing today. Economic issues tend to push the price of gold higher rather than lower.
Even when gold prices have dipped recently, those drops have been short-lived, bouncing back quickly. In some cases, these dips have been quickly followed by the price of gold reaching new highs. This pattern makes it difficult to predict the market. So, waiting for a significant drop could mean missing out on the chance to buy gold at all. If the price continues to rise — and analysts are already predicting that it will — those waiting for a cheaper entry point could be left empty-handed.
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Your portfolio could be vulnerable without it
Gold has long been considered a hedge against stock market volatility, economic downturns and inflation. And while the stock market has performed well recently, it has experienced heightened volatility in recent months. This matters because when the market underperforms or experiences wild fluctuations, gold tends to shine as a stable store of value. This makes gold an essential component of a well-balanced investment portfolio, providing a level of protection against broader market risks.
If you delay investing in gold while waiting for lower prices, you may leave your portfolio vulnerable to future market shocks, should they occur. Gold provides a critical layer of security during such times, and without it, your portfolio may be overly exposed to short-term market shocks that gold could have helped to cushion.
You could miss out on quick returns
While gold is often viewed as a long-term investment, it also presents opportunities for short-term gains, particularly in today’s rapidly rising market. While the price is currently high, many analysts believe that gold’s price is far from reaching its peak — and some experts predict that it could soon hit $3,000 per ounce or higher. If this upward trend continues, buying now — even at the current high prices — could result in significant profits in the near future.
By waiting for a price drop, though, you may miss out on these potential gains. Market timing is notoriously difficult, and even if gold prices were to dip slightly, the price could quickly rebound, leaving those who waited with no opportunity to benefit from the current rally. Investing in gold now could allow you to take advantage of the potential for short-term profits while also securing a position in a valuable long-term asset. And if gold continues to climb, today’s prices may soon seem like a bargain.
The bottom line
Investing in gold has long been a strategy for preserving wealth and protecting portfolios against volatility, so it makes sense to add it to your portfolio, but if you’re waiting for lower prices to enter the market, that may not be the most prudent approach. The price of gold may not drop substantially and delaying your investment could leave your portfolio vulnerable to stock market fluctuations. You might also miss out on an opportunity for both short- and long-term profits. So, given the current trajectory of gold prices and the uncertain economic environment, now may be the right time to consider investing in gold rather than waiting for a dip that may never come.
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