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Americans are flocking to U.S. regions most threatened by climate change
Americans often pull up roots in search of better jobs and cheaper housing. But in recent years, those moves have drawn more people into regions with higher risk of natural disasters, which have become more destructive because of climate change.
Hurricane Milton, a powerful Category 4 storm on Tuesday afternoon, is on a path to hit the Tampa-St. Petersburg, Florida, area late Wednesday or very early Thursday morning. Yet the metropolitan region has grown by 39% since 2000, boosting its population by an additional 1 million residents during that time.
Last month’s Hurricane Helene devastated parts of western North Carolina, including the city of Asheville, the population of which has increased by 13% since 2000, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The region attracted new residents during the past few decades by appealing to retirees, remote workers and other professionals pursuing Asheville’s highly rated quality of life.
The population growth of Tampa and Asheville are part of a trend noted by economists, demographers and scientists: Regions facing heightened risks from climate change drawing in more residents. The juxtaposition of growing populations and intensifying natural disasters, in turn, creates the risk for even greater losses to human life and property.
High-risk counties outgrow low-risk areas
The populations of high-risk counties have grown at a rate that’s 3 percentage points faster than low-risk counties over the last three decades, according to research from economists Agustin Indaco, Francesc Ortega and Xinle Pang.
“Our results show that, in general, the U.S. population is not retreating from high-risk areas,” they noted in a 2023 paper published in Econofact. “In fact, there’s increasing agglomeration in areas with high climate risk.”
Added the economists, “These results imply that, even in the optimistic (and unlikely) event that climate risk were to remain constant, natural hazards with record-breaking damages will continue to take place over the foreseeable future.”
Pandemic trends
To be sure, it’s not only communities in Florida and the Southwest that are experiencing the combination of population growth and more damaging climate disasters. Regions in western states from Washington to Arizona at higher risk of more frequent heat waves and wildfires have also seen recent population growth, according to research from the University of Vermont and the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Climate disasters have also brought suffering to regions that haven’t been considered high-risk, such as Vermont, which was hit with deadly flooding in 2023 and 2024, with the latest storm stemming from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl.
Regardless, Americans are increasingly flocking to disaster-prone areas, an issue that picked up speed during the pandemic as some people sought to take advantage of remote work and shift their residences in search of more affordable housing or a new lifestyle.
During the first two years of the pandemic, migration of Americans to high-risk areas from regions with lower climate risk more than doubled, according to Freddie Mac. More people moved to places with higher risks of wildfire, drought and hurricanes, although there was one exception, as earthquake-prone areas in California actually saw an outflow of residents, Freddie Mac researchers found.
But that may be due to residents leaving the state because of its high cost of housing, rather than fears about earthquakes, the researchers noted. In fact, some of those people who left California may have simply shifted to regions exposed to other climate-related risks, they added.
“[T]here is little evidence that, on average, natural hazards are a strong driver of out-migration,” the researchers noted. “Instead, it is the affordability of the area as suggested by out-migration from places like California and New York that pushes people out, unless there is a major natural disaster that provides information about the riskiness of the area they are residing in.”
Tipping point?
The question is whether natural disasters and climate change could create a tipping point where residents begin to move away from high-risk regions.
Already, there’s some evidence that some Americans have become climate migrants, with First Street Foundation, a nonprofit that studies climate change, finding in a 2023 report that 3.2 million Americans have moved due to mounting risks of flooding where they live. Some of those regions, which First Street calls “climate abandonment areas,” exist in even some of the country’s fastest-growing metropolitan areas, including coastal Florida and Texas’ Gulf coast.
Some homes in disaster-prone areas are already facing higher insurance costs — if homeowners can even get a policy. Florida homeowners have already shouldered a 45% increase in insurance rates from 2017 to 2022, according to a recent report from the Florida Policy Project.
The average annual premium for a Florida homeowner is $5,500 — about 140% higher than the typical U.S. homeowner’s cost of $2,285, according to Bankrate.
And the growing risk of wildfires has made parts of California essentially uninsurable, according to a 2023 First Street analysis.
For some Tampa residents, Hurricane Milton will be the second storm within weeks to damage the region. Many are now evacuating, leading to clogged roads and empty gas stations. Whether that deters other people from moving to the Florida is yet to be seen, but in the near-term, residents told CBS Miami that the impact could be severe.
“Fo most of us, this is everything we have — the largest part of everybody’s financial well-being is locked up in their homes,” Florida resident Jeff Garvey told CBS Miami.
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3 big risks of waiting for gold prices to fall
Gold has been a standout performer in the financial markets this year, with prices climbing rapidly and setting new records. At the start of the year, gold was trading at just above $2,000 per ounce, but its value has soared past multiple milestones in recent months, and, today, gold prices hover above $2,650 per ounce. This upward trend has resulted in big rewards for early investors who saw the precious metal as a safe haven in uncertain economic times. Those who got in before prices surged are now enjoying substantial gains.
For investors who have yet to buy gold, though, the current high prices present a dilemma. Many are hesitant to jump in at a time when the price is near a record high and are instead waiting in hopes that prices will retreat, allowing them to purchase gold at a discount. This cautious approach makes sense in traditional investing logic. After all, buying low and selling high is the golden rule. But in the case of gold, waiting for lower prices may not be as wise as it seems.
While it’s tempting to wait for a price drop, the reality is that this gold investing strategy could be fraught with risks — especially right now. Below, we’ll analyze why.
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3 big risks of waiting for gold prices to fall
Waiting for gold’s price to drop could be a risky bet for the following reasons:
Gold’s price may not drop substantially
One of the primary risks in waiting to buy gold at a lower price is the possibility that the anticipated dip may never happen — or may not be as substantial as you hope. Recent trends in the gold market have shown that while gold’s price may experience short-term fluctuations, these dips have not been drastic. Part of the reason is that gold tends to be highly resilient historically, particularly in times of economic uncertainty, like what we’re facing today. Economic issues tend to push the price of gold higher rather than lower.
Even when gold prices have dipped recently, those drops have been short-lived, bouncing back quickly. In some cases, these dips have been quickly followed by the price of gold reaching new highs. This pattern makes it difficult to predict the market. So, waiting for a significant drop could mean missing out on the chance to buy gold at all. If the price continues to rise — and analysts are already predicting that it will — those waiting for a cheaper entry point could be left empty-handed.
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Your portfolio could be vulnerable without it
Gold has long been considered a hedge against stock market volatility, economic downturns and inflation. And while the stock market has performed well recently, it has experienced heightened volatility in recent months. This matters because when the market underperforms or experiences wild fluctuations, gold tends to shine as a stable store of value. This makes gold an essential component of a well-balanced investment portfolio, providing a level of protection against broader market risks.
If you delay investing in gold while waiting for lower prices, you may leave your portfolio vulnerable to future market shocks, should they occur. Gold provides a critical layer of security during such times, and without it, your portfolio may be overly exposed to short-term market shocks that gold could have helped to cushion.
You could miss out on quick returns
While gold is often viewed as a long-term investment, it also presents opportunities for short-term gains, particularly in today’s rapidly rising market. While the price is currently high, many analysts believe that gold’s price is far from reaching its peak — and some experts predict that it could soon hit $3,000 per ounce or higher. If this upward trend continues, buying now — even at the current high prices — could result in significant profits in the near future.
By waiting for a price drop, though, you may miss out on these potential gains. Market timing is notoriously difficult, and even if gold prices were to dip slightly, the price could quickly rebound, leaving those who waited with no opportunity to benefit from the current rally. Investing in gold now could allow you to take advantage of the potential for short-term profits while also securing a position in a valuable long-term asset. And if gold continues to climb, today’s prices may soon seem like a bargain.
The bottom line
Investing in gold has long been a strategy for preserving wealth and protecting portfolios against volatility, so it makes sense to add it to your portfolio, but if you’re waiting for lower prices to enter the market, that may not be the most prudent approach. The price of gold may not drop substantially and delaying your investment could leave your portfolio vulnerable to stock market fluctuations. You might also miss out on an opportunity for both short- and long-term profits. So, given the current trajectory of gold prices and the uncertain economic environment, now may be the right time to consider investing in gold rather than waiting for a dip that may never come.