Interest rates are on the decline. Or at least the federal funds rate is. That seems to be the confusing but somewhat accurate interpretation in recent weeks after the Federal Reserve issued its first cut to the federal funds rate in more than four years in September. Cut to a range between 4.75% to 5%, the expectation was that rates on borrowing products would soon ease. While mortgage rates did temporarily drop in the month, they rose again by close to a full percentage point in October. And credit card interest rates, admittedly influenced by a complex series of factors besides just the federal funds rate, just hit a record 23% last week. 

Against this backdrop, then, prospective home equity borrowers may be wondering about the future of home equity loan interest rates. Specifically, what will happen to home equity loan rates after this week’s Fed rate cut? That’s what we’ll break down below.

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What will happen to home equity loan rates after this week’s Fed rate cut?

The average home equity loan interest rate is 8.35% right now. And while that could certainly fall if the Fed issues a 25 basis point cut to the federal funds rate as expected on Thursday, it’s unlikely that home equity loan rates will change dramatically once the meeting has concluded. Here are three reasons why:

Lenders may have already made adjustments: A Fed rate cut this week is essentially a certainty (the CME Group’s FedWatch tool has it pegged at over 99%). Understanding this, many lenders may have already priced this presumed cut into what they offer borrowers. Remember that mortgage rates, for example, actually hit a two-year low before the Fed formally issued a rate cut in September. Home equity loan lenders may have done the same thing here. 

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The Fed doesn’t directly dictate home equity loan rates: Can the Federal Reserve influence home equity loan rates? Sure. But they can’t and won’t directly dictate what lenders can offer borrowers. So even if there is a 25 basis point reduction this week, don’t expect home equity loan rates to fall by the same margin. If there’s a 50 basis point cut, however, then rates may fall more significantly. 

Market conditions also play a role: The Fed’s actions (or lack thereof) are only one component in a series of factors that affect home equity loan interest rates. Economic growth considerations, like the unemployment rate and inflation, also play a major role in what lenders ultimately offer borrowers. And figures there have been mixed lately with unemployment in October poor while inflation continues to drop closer to the Fed’s preferred 2% target. With these additional factors moving in opposite directions, then, it may negate any additional significant reductions in home equity loan rates, at least temporarily. 

The bottom line

Home equity loan rates, in theory, could fall after this week’s Fed rate cut. But that drop is unlikely to be significant and, for many borrowers, that cut may already be preemptively priced in with their current lender offers. Still, the rate climate is evolving and home equity loan rates are significantly cheaper than many alternatives. So it may still make sense to pursue this unique borrowing option now while looking for an opportunity to refinance your loan to a lower rate in the future.

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