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Analysis of how Donald Trump is projected to win the 2024 presidential race

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Analysis of how Donald Trump is projected to win the 2024 presidential race – CBS News


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CBS News political contributor and Democratic strategist Joel Payne joins “CBS Mornings” to discuss Trump’s projected victory in the 2024 presidential race.

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Key moments of the 2024 campaign in photos

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CBS News projected early Wednesday that Donald Trump will be the president-elect, ending a wild and unprecedented 2024 presidential race.

From President Biden’s sudden exit, Vice President Kamala Harris’ late entry and two assassination attempts against Trump, the path to this Election Day was historic and unpredictable.

Here are some key moments from the campaign: 

Trump’s guilty verdict

Trump Hush Money Trial
Trump walks out of court and toward the media following the verdict in his hush money trial in New York on May 30, 2024.

Mark Peterson/New York Magazine via AP, Pool


Trump was found guilty in May 2024 of 34 felonies by the jury in his hush money trial in New York City, becoming the first former American president in history to be convicted of a crime. He was convicted on allegations of falsifying business records in an effort to hide a $130,000 payment to the adult film star Stormy Daniels prior to the 2016 election. 

Trump has denied the charges and maintained his innocence. Addressing the trial after the verdict came down, Trump called the situation “very unfair” and “rigged.”

DeSantis drops out

Election 2024 DeSantis
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks to supporters during a caucus night party on Jan. 15, 2024, in West Des Moines, Iowa.

Charlie Neibergall / AP


Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis had entered the race fresh off a nearly 20-point victory in the Florida’s governor’s race in 2020, and had looked like the future for the party. But he ended his Republican presidential campaign ahead of the New Hampshire primary in January, following his significant loss to Trump in the Iowa caucuses

Nikki Haley suspends her presidential campaign 

Republican Presidential Candidate Nikki Haley Announces She's Suspending Her Campaign
Nikki Haley walks off stage after announcing the suspension of her presidential campaign on March 6, 2024 in Daniel Island, South Carolina. 

Anna Moneymaker / Getty Images


Hours after winning just one state — Vermont — on Super Tuesday, the last remaining Republican in the race, former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley, suspended her campaign. Her dropping out cleared the path for Trump to get the nomination. Exit polls showed Trump leading Haley among broad segments of the GOP electorate, with voters saying immigration and the economy were their most important issues. 

Haley stopped short of endorsing Trump, and later when asked by Margaret Brennan on “Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan” if she thought Trump was a “good candidate,” Haley said “I think he is the Republican nominee.” 

Biden’s fumbling debate performance

Donald Trump And Joe Biden Participate In First Presidential Debate
U.S. President Joe Biden walks off stage during the CNN Presidential Debate at the CNN Studios on June 27, 2024 in Atlanta, Georgia. 

Justin Sullivan / Getty Images


Mr. Biden struggled through the first presidential debate against Trump in June, speaking in a hoarse voice and at times appearing to lose his train of thought while answering questions. Officials in Mr. Biden’s camp later attributed the president’s lackluster performance to a cold, which they said he’d had for several days, but Americans and some government leaders questioned whether the debate was a sign the 81-year-old politician would not be fit enough to serve a second term.

The Butler assassination attempt

Election 2024 Trump Shooting
Trump is surrounded by U.S. Secret Service agents at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, 2024, where a shooter opened fire into the crowd.

Evan Vucci / AP


While Mr. Biden faced mounting pressures to end his reelection campaign after the debate, Trump was shot while speaking to a crowd of supporters from the podium of his July rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. The assassination attempt against the former president ultimately killed one spectator at the rally and critically injured two others, and eventually led the now-former director of the Secret Service to resign from her post. A bullet pierced Trump’s ear when the shooter opened fire onto the crowd, and Secret Service agents quickly rushed him from the stage.

Biden exits the race

News Reports In Times Square As President Biden Drops Out Of Race
Screens at the Fox News headquarters in New York City display news reports announcing Biden dropped out of the presidential race on Sunday, July 21, 2024.

Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images


Mr. Biden announced his decision to drop out of the presidential race on July 21, at the same time endorsing Harris for the Democratic nomination.

“While it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as president for my term,” he posted in a statement on social media. “My very first decision as the party nominee in 2020 was to pick Kamala Harris as my Vice President. And it’s been the best decision I’ve made. Today I want to offer my full support and endorsement for Kamala to be the nominee of our party this year. Democrats — it’s time to come together and beat Trump. Let’s do this.” 

Harris launches her presidential campaign

Election 2024 Democrats
Harris speaks at her campaign headquarters in Wilmington, Del., Monday, July 22, 2024.

Erin Schaff/The New York Times via AP, Pool


Harris officially launched her campaign July 21, soon after Mr. Biden announced his decision to end his. The vice president’s entry into the into the race following his withdrawal revitalized the energy of their party, with Harris’ campaign raising hundreds of millions in its first week and drawing a medley of endorsements from the nation’s top Democrats.

“I am honored to have the president’s endorsement and my intention is to earn and win this nomination,” Harris said in a statement announcing her campaign. “Over the past year, I have traveled across the country, talking with Americans about the clear choice in this momentous election. And that is what I will continue to do in the days and weeks ahead. 

Brat summer

kamala-brat.png
“Brat summer” helped jumpstart Harris’ presidential campaign.

CBS News


Two days after Mr. Biden bowed out and Harris’ bid emerged, the social media account on X previously dedicated to the president’s reelection pursuit transformed to focus instead on her campaign. The transition was marked by a neon green banner at the top of the social media profile bearing the title “kamala hq.” Its style and format imitated the cover of “Brat,” the album by British pop star Charli XCX whose then-recent viral tweet — “Kamala IS brat” — swept the Internet and sparked a frenzy of memes that seemed to engage Gen Z voters in a promising new way. 

Harris supporters began to show up at rallies dressed in trademark green 

“You think you just fell out of a coconut tree?”

MoveOn's Scoop the Vote Truck Tour Kickoff in Philadelphia, PA with Ben and Jerry
A view of a Scoop The Vote flier and Ben’s Best Kamala’s Coconut Jubilee, as Ben & Jerry’s participated in a get-out-the-vote event for Harris in Philadelphia on September 16, 2024.

Lisa Lake/Getty Images for MoveOn


With the explosion of “brat”-themed merchandise and viral videos linked to Harris’s campaign came another Internet trend, stemming from a speech where the Democratic nominee recalled something her mother used to say to her.

“‘I don’t know what’s wrong with you young people. You think you just fell out of a coconut tree?'” Harris said, quoting her mother. “You exist in the context of all in which you live and what came before you.” 

TikTok edits incorporating the “coconut tree” clip and elements from the Charli XCX album became enormously popular, and many felt the swarm of attention from young people previously unhappy with the election prospects helped kickstart the momentum of Harris’ bid.

JD Vance becomes the Republican vice presidential nominee

Election 2024 Trump
Republican vice presidential candidate Sen. JD Vance waves as Trump pumps his fist at a campaign rally on Saturday, July 27, 2024, in St. Cloud, Minn.

Alex Brandon / AP


Trump announced Sen. JD Vance of Ohio as his vice presidential running mate in July, before accepting the Republican presidential nomination at the party’s convention in Milwaukee.

“After lengthy deliberation and thought, and considering the tremendous talents of many others, I have decided that the person best suited to assume the position of Vice President of the United States is Senator J.D. Vance of the Great State of Ohio,” Trump said in a social media post.

Harris chooses Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate

Election 2024 Harris
Democratic vice presidential nominee Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz speaks at a campaign rally at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas on Saturday, Aug. 10, 2024.

Jae Hong / AP


Harris announced she’d chosen Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her vice presidential running mate in August.

“One of the things that stood out to me about Tim is how his convictions on fighting for middle class families run deep. It’s personal,” Harris wrote on social media when she unveiled her pick.

“He grew up in a small town in Nebraska, spending summers working on his family’s farm,” the post continued. “His father died of cancer when he was 19, and his family relied on Social Security survivor benefit checks to make ends meet. At 17, he enlisted in the National Guard, serving for 24 years. He used his GI Bill benefits to go to college, and become a teacher. He served as both the football coach and the adviser of the Gay-Straight Alliance.”

Second apparent assassination attempt

A law enforcement officer walks in front of a sign for former President Donald Trump's Trump International Golf Course in West Palm Beach, Florida, after shots were fired Sept. 15, 2024.
A law enforcement officer walks in front of a sign for former President Donald Trump’s Trump International Golf Course in West Palm Beach, Florida, after shots were fired Sept. 15, 2024.

Reuters/Marco Bello


In September, a man was taken into custody after pointing a high-powered rifle at the Florida course where Trump was playing golf. Secret Service agents said at the time they had engaged with the suspect and, with the man’s arrest, opened an investigation into the incident that FBI officials called an apparent attempted assassination of the former president

A federal grand jury in Miami indicted Ryan Wesley Routh Tuesday on a charge of attempting to kill Trump on Sept. 15

Harris and Trump’s first, and only, debate

Democracy News Alliance Election
In this image released on Friday, October, 18, 2024, a person in Washington, D.C., stops to watch a screen displaying the presidential debate between Harris and Trump.

Democracy News Alliance/news aktuell via AP Images / AP


Trump and Harris sparred in a contentious presidential debate in Philadelphia in September. The debate, hosted by ABC, saw the two candidates slashing over key issues like abortion rights, immigration, the economy and foreign policy.

“They’re eating the dogs … they’re eating the cats”

Election 2024 Haitian Immigrants
Wilda Brooks of West Palm Beach, Fla., holds up a sign reading “We don’t eat pets,” during a rally by members of South Florida’s Haitian-American community to condemn hate speech and misinformation about Haitian immigrants on Sunday, Sept. 22, 2024.

Rebecca Blackwell / AP


Among a medley of blatant falsehoods and baseless claims made by Trump during his debate against Harris was one that stood out from the rest. While speaking about immigration, the former president repeated a story that had been circulating on social media that alleged, confusingly, that Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio, were abducting and eating people’s pets. 

Trump, Vance and others had already amplified those rumors prior to the debate, where Trump doubled down, saying: “In Springfield, they’re eating the dogs — the people that came in, they’re eating the cats. They’re eating — they’re eating the pets of the people that live there and this is what’s happening in our country, and it’s a shame.” 

In response, ABC “World News Tonight” anchor David Muir told Trump during the debate that city officials in Springfield disputed the claims.

Racist Madison Square Garden rally draws outcry 

Election 2024 Trump
Tony Hinchcliffe speaks at Trump’s campaign rally at Madison Square Garden on Sunday, Oct. 27, 2024, in New York City.

Evan Vucci / AP


As the presidential race neared a close at the end of October, Trump held a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden in New York City and vowed to win his home state in the election. He didn’t, and the campaign event itself drove a wave of criticism after his guest speakers gave remarks that were riddled with offensive, racist comments. In part of the opening remarks that received significant backlash, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe referred to Puerto Rico as a “floating island of garbage” in his speech.

Trump’s garbage truck stunt

Donald Trump Campaigns In The Swing State Of Wisconsin
Trump holds a press conference from inside trash hauler at Green Bay Austin Straubel International Airport on October 30, 2024 in Green Bay, Wisconsin.

Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images


As both Trump and Harris’ campaigns zeroed in on key battlegrounds in the lead-up to the Election Day, the Republican nominee addressed reporters in Green Bay, Wisconsin, while wearing a construction vest from behind the wheel of a garbage truck that was emblazoned with his campaign slogan.

The stunt, he said, was crafted “in honor of Kamala and Joe Biden” after Mr. Biden appeared to call Trump’s supporters “garbage,” although the White House and Mr. Biden clarified that remark was about the Madison Square Garden rally comedian. 

Voters turn out in record numbers

APTOPIX Election 2024 America Votes Nevada
People line up to vote outside Allegiant Stadium, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, in Las Vegas.

John Locher / AP


Polling stations across the country have seen record-breaking turnout from voters in this election, with more than 78 million people casting ballots early, including more than 40 million who voted in person. 

Trump was photographed with former first lady Melania Trump on Election Day, after they voted at the Morton and Barbara Mandel Recreation Center in Palm Beach, Florida.

Trump wins the presidency

Election 2024 Trump
Trump greets Vance at an election night watch party at the Palm Beach Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Fla.

Evan Vucci / AP


Trump defeated Harris to become the 47th president of the United States, CBS News projected early Wednesday morning. He received support on Election Day from multiple battleground states, which would have been vital to either candidate in order to win.

“I want to thank the American people for the extraordinary honor of being elected your 47th president and your 45th president,” Trump said at his election headquarters in Florida on Wednesday, declaring victory. “And every citizen, I will fight for you, for your family and for your future. Every single day, I will be fighting for you with every breath in my body.”



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Considering a home equity loan now? Why you should open one before the end of 2024

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gettyimages-2154900122.jpg
By opening a home equity loan before the end of the year, borrowers could potentially realize some tax relief.

Getty Images


There are always ways to borrow money, some more cost-effective than others. But in recent years, only one has remained relatively cheap: home equity. As inflation soared and rates on credit cards and personal loans surged alongside it, home equity loans and home equity lines of credit (HELOCs) remained relatively inexpensive. While not immune from this rising trend, they stayed relatively low thanks to the home in question serving as collateral. And now, with inflation significantly lower than it was and with a cut to the federal funds rate issued in September and another poised to be issued this week, home equity loans are becoming even more affordable for borrowers.

But an interest rate that’s lower than most popular alternatives isn’t the only timely benefit right now. There’s another, arguably equally beneficial feature for borrowers, one that could negate much of the concern surrounding rates on these products. That said, borrowers will need to act promptly to exploit this opportunity. Below, we’ll explain why, specifically, it’s worth opening a home equity loan before the end of 2024.

Start by seeing what home equity loan rate you’re eligible for here.

Why you should open a home equity loan before the end of 2024

There are just under eight weeks left in 2024. Considering that the amount of time it takes to have your home equity disbursed varies by lender (it can take a few weeks or even months), the window of opportunity to utilize your home equity loan this year is closing. Here’s why that matters: If you use a home equity loan for IRS-eligible home repairs and renovations, you’ll be able to deduct the interest paid on the loan when you file your taxes in the spring. 

“Interest on home equity loans and lines of credit are deductible only if the borrowed funds are used to buy, build, or substantially improve the taxpayer’s home that secures the loan,” the IRS tells taxpayers online. “The loan must be secured by the taxpayer’s main home or second home (qualified residence), and meet other requirements.

“Generally, you can deduct the home mortgage interest and points reported to you on Form 1098 on Schedule A (Form 1040), line 8a,” the IRS explains. “However, any interest showing in box 1 of Form 1098 from a home equity loan, or a line of credit or credit card loan secured by the property, is not deductible if the proceeds were not used to buy, build, or substantially improve a qualified home.”

So if you’re planning on using your home for these reasons (a financial advisor or accountant can delve into exactly what qualifies), then you can add a potentially significant deduction into your taxes before filing next April. But if you wait much longer, you may not even get your funds until January. Or, if you get it before then, the amount you utilize this year will do little to alleviate your overall 2024 tax burden. For all of these reasons, then, if you’re planning on completing home projects – and want to use your home equity to do it – it makes sense to open a home equity loan now, before December 31, 2024.

Get started with a home equity loan now.

The bottom line

If you’re looking for an additional tax deduction and are in the process of finalizing financing for some select home projects, it makes sense to take out a home equity loan now, before the end of the year. But a HELOC will also qualify for the same tax benefits, should you prefer the features of a revolving line of credit versus the lump sum the home equity loan offers. Regardless of which option you choose, however, it’s important to act promptly and strategically. And as your home functions as collateral in these unique borrowing scenarios, you should only withdraw as much as you can afford to repay to avoid losing your home.



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Why Trump’s win could spur retailers to push up prices

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As President-elect Donald Trump readies to return to the Oval Office, retailers that depend on foreign suppliers are prepared to pass along the cost of his proposed import tariffs to consumers, who can expect to pay more for products, from toys to auto parts. 

Americans stand to lose between $46 billion and $78 billion in spending power each year on products including apparel, toys, furniture, household appliances, footwear and travel goods due to the new tariffs, the National Retail Federation stated in findings released Monday. 

“Retailers rely heavily on imported products and manufacturing components so that they can offer their customers a variety of products at affordable prices,” NRF Vice President of Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “A tariff is a tax paid by the U.S. importer, not a foreign country or the exporter. This tax ultimately comes out of consumers’ pockets through higher prices.”

For example, a $40 toaster oven would retail for $48 to $52 after the tariffs, while a $50 pair of running shoes would jump to to $59 to $64, according to the industry trade group. A $2,000 mattress and box spring set would cost $2,128 to $2,190, the NRF noted.

In his first term, the Trump administration imposed tariffs of up to 25% on more than $360 billion in products from China. President Joe Biden’s White House kept most of those tariffs and added more onto goods including Chinese electric cars and microchips. 

Now, the former president has said he plans to impose a 60% tax on goods from China and a 10% to 20% fee on all of the $3 trillion in foreign goods the United States imports annually.

The broad-based tariffs would reignite inflation, as they’d mostly be paid by U.S. consumers, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned, offering a general view shared by other economists. 

“A consistent theoretical and empirical finding in economics is that domestic consumers and domestic firms bear the burden of a tariff, not the foreign country,” the nonpartisan Budget Lab at Yale University stated in an analysis published in mid October. 

Trump has repeatedly contended that foreign companies would foot the bill, telling a gathering last month at the Economic Club of Chicago that “the countries will pay” the tariffs, or taxes on imported goods. In reality, American importers pay the tariffs to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency when their goods cross the border.

“These policy steps would amount to regressive tax cuts, only partially paid for by regressive tax increases,” and cost a typical middle-income household about $1,700 in increased taxes a year,” according to economists at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. The proposed tariffs would shift tax burdens from the well-off to lower-income Americans, the nonprofit stated in a policy brief published in August.

Harvard professor and former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers questioned the wisdom of taxing imports, noting the potential impact on purchasing gifts for children. “For parents, we’re coming up on the holiday season and most of our toys are imported from China,” Summers tweeted on Thanksgiving Day. 

Trump has argued that tariffs compel American companies to make goods on U.S. soil rather than purchasing from foreign suppliers. 

But companies including auto-parts supplier AutoZone have other plans. 

“If we get tariffs, we will pass those tariff costs back to the consumer,” Philip Daniele, CEO of AutoZone, told an earnings call in late September. “We’ll generally raise prices ahead of — we know what the tariffs will be — we generally raise prices ahead of that,” Daniele said. 

Asked how he viewed the impact of inflation and tariffs on his business, Daniele stated that “historically, the industry sees 3%-5% inflation in average ticket and 1%-3% decline in transactions.” 

Major suppliers to AutoZone include companies based in China, India and Germany, the Memphis, Tennessee-based company said in a June press release.


Trump proposes to replace income taxes with steep tariffs | Reality Check

02:44

Stanley Black & Decker CEO Donald Allan Jr. last week said his tool-producing company has been planning for the possibility of a “new tariff regime” since the spring. “Obviously, coming out of the gate, there would be price increases associated with tariffs that we [would] put into the market.” 

Allan downplayed the idea of moving manufacturing back to the U.S., saying it would not be cost-effective.

The company’s options could include “moving production and aspects of the supply chain to different parts of the world,” including from China to other parts of Asia and possibly Mexico, the executive said.

Such a shift has already been made by Shelton, Connecticut-based Acme United, which now has its Westcott brand products like rulers made in Thailand and the Philippines, avoiding the tariffs targeting China, CEO Walter Johnsen said in an earnings call.

Acme has also switched production of certain medical products to India, Egypt and U.S. plants in Florida, North Carolina and Washington state, the executive said.

Businesses have also stocked up, placing bigger-than-usual import orders ahead of new tariffs taking hold, as the U.S. imported 11% more Chinese products in July and August than they did during the same two-month period a year ago, according to the Census Bureau.



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