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This is when mortgage interest rates will fall, experts say

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Current mortgage interest rates are high but they may not stay elevated for long.

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Over the past year and half, the Fed has gradually increased interest rates by about 5%. While the hikes have helped to cool inflation, they’ve also driven up the cost of getting a mortgage. During the pandemic, Americans saw record-low mortgage rates in the ballpark of 3%. Now, they’ve plateaued around 7%. If you’re wondering how long they’ll stay there and if it’s a good time to buy a home, then it helps to know what some experts think. 

Start by exploring your mortgage options here to see what rate you’re eligible for.

When do experts think mortgage rates will drop?

Experts tend to agree that mortgage rates will likely drop over the next year and hit 5% by the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025. 

5% by late 2024 or early 2025

“As the Fed continues to battle inflation and gets closer to their 2% goal, mortgage rates should respond positively to the stabilization and begin slowly decreasing in early 2024. My prediction is that we see rates around 6.5% in Q1 of 2024 and 5% in Q4,” says Brian Shahwan, vice president and mortgage banker at William Raveis Mortgage. 

“Many mortgage rate forecasts from leading institutions don’t predict a drop to 6% or below until the end of 2024 or early 2025,” adds Christopher L. Stroup, MBA, CFP, a financial advisor at Abacus Wealth Partners.

Travis Saling, loan officer at Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation agreed, saying, “The Fed increased rates to help slow inflation and it’s worked. My prediction would be [mortgage rates] moving into the low 6% range by the end of next year and into the 5% range by 2025.”

“I don’t think that we’re going to see lower mortgage rates until sometime next year – second half? When rates dip, I think they’ll be in the 6% to 6.5% range. Perhaps, a bit below 6%. But, I don’t anticipate rates getting to sub-5% any time soon,” says Kevin Leibowitz, president and CEO of Grayton Mortgage.

See what mortgage interest you’d qualify for here now.

A recession could drive a drop sooner

While the consensus is that rates will enter a steady but slow decline in the coming year or two, a recession could change that. 

“As consumers begin facing the real effects of the Feds increased rate hikes over the past year in their credit card debts, auto debts, and newly re-introduced student loan payments, this may push the economy into a recession-which would rapidly decrease mortgage rates,” says Shahwan, “If CPI moves higher or the Fed continues raising the Fed Funds rate, the chances of a recession, in my opinion, are much greater.”

Saling also notes the possibility. He said, “[The Fed] is taking a wait-and-see approach to see if they need to raise rates higher. They could start to cut rates if the economy starts to falter because of the higher rates.”

Should you wait to buy a new home?

While rates will likely drop slightly in 2024, that doesn’t necessarily mean you should wait to buy a home

Buying when rates are on the higher end can mean lower home prices and fewer bidding wars. It can also be beneficial to start building equity and reaping tax benefits as soon as possible. 

“Regardless of where mortgage rates go from here, there is one piece of advice I always deliver to my clients in the home buying process: You marry the house, but date the rate,” says Stroup. “If you choose to implement this strategy, you assume today’s interest rates as a necessary evil. Then, you plan to refinance your mortgage at some point in the future once rates fall.”

How to track mortgage rates

Want to keep an eye on mortgage rates in the year to come? Leibowitz says to check the Federal Reserve Economic Database

He adds, “Typically, rates in the market don’t drop until there’s some bad news (recession, higher unemployment, deflation, etc.). We haven’t seen any of these items occur. There’s talk of a ‘soft landing,’ but these are difficult to engineer. The members of the Fed know this, so I believe that they’re not in any hurry to reduce rates.”

Explore today’s mortgage rates now to learn more.



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Israel retrieves bodies of 5 hostages believed killed during Oct. 7 Hamas attack, military says

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Israeli forces recovered the bodies of five people believed to have been killed during the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas militants on southern Israel and brought into the Gaza Strip, where they were being held hostage, the military said Thursday.

The army said the bodies of hostage Maya Goren as well as four soldiers had been returned to Israel. The troops were identified as Sgt. Oren Goldin, Staff Sgt. Tomer Ahimas, Sgt. Maj. Ravid Aryeh Katz and Sgt. Kiril Brodski.

The bodies were recovered on Wednesday during an operation in Khan Yunis, the main city in the southern Gaza Strip, the military said.

The military had announced Goren’s death in December.

maya-goren.jpg
Maya Goren, a 56-year-old kindergarten teacher believed to have been killed during the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas attack on southern Israel whose body was being held hostage in southern Gaza. Israeli military said on July 25, 2024 that her body had been recovered by Israeli forces.  

The Hostages Families Forum / Handout via REUTERS


Thursday’s announcement came after two Israeli kibbutzim, Nir Oz and Nir Yitzhak, said in separate statements that the army had retrieved the bodies of Goren and Goldin.

“Last night, we were informed that in a military rescue operation, the body of the late Maya Goren was recovered,” kibbutz Nir Oz said, adding that her family had been informed and more information would follow. Goren was a 56-year-old kindergarten teacher.

Later, kibbutz Nir Yitzhak said the army had returned Goldin’s body.

“This evening, we were informed about the rescue operation for the late Oren Goldin, a member of the kibbutz emergency team, who fell on October 7 during the attack by Hamas militants,” Nir Yitzhak said.

On October 7, Hamas militants attacked southern Israeli communities, which resulted in the deaths of 1,197 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.

Militants also seized 251 hostages, 111 of whom remain in Gaza, including 39 the military says are dead.

Israel’s retaliatory military campaign in Gaza has killed at least 39,145 people, also mostly civilians, according to the health ministry in the Hamas-run territory.



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Missouri Supreme Court halts release of man whose murder conviction was overturned

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The Missouri Supreme Court halted the immediate release Wednesday of a man whose murder conviction was overturned — just as the man was about to walk free.

A St. Louis Circuit Court judge had ordered Christopher Dunn, now 52, to be released by 6 p.m. CDT Wednesday and threatened the prison warden with contempt if Dunn remained imprisoned. But Republican Attorney General Andrew Bailey has been fighting Dunn’s release.

The situation was chaotic as the deadline set by the judge approached. Corrections Department spokesperson Karen Pojmann told The Associated Press that Dunn was out of the prison facility and waiting for a ride. His wife told the AP she was on his way to pick him up. Minutes later, Pojmann corrected herself and said that while Dunn was signing paperwork to be released, the Missouri Supreme Court issued a ruling that put his freedom on hold.

St. Louis Circuit Judge Jason Sengheiser overturned Dunn’s murder conviction Monday, citing evidence of “actual innocence” in the 1990 killing. He ordered Dunn’s immediate release then, but Bailey appealed, and the state Department of Corrections declined to release Dunn.

St. Louis Circuit Attorney Gabe Gore had filed a motion Wednesday urging the judge to immediately order Dunn’s freedom.

“The Attorney General cannot unilaterally decide to ignore this Court’s Order,” Gore wrote.

An attorney for the Department of Corrections told a lawyer in Gore’s office that Bailey advised the agency not to release Dunn until the appeal plays out, according to a court filing. When told it was improper to ignore a court order, the Department of Corrections attorney “responded that the Attorney General’s Office is legal counsel to the DOC and the DOC would be following the advice of counsel.”

Dunn’s attorney, Tricia Rojo Bushnell, the executive director of the Midwest Innocence Project, expressed her frustration.

“What is this bringing to taxpayers in Missouri? What is this use of our resources and our state’s time getting us?” she said. “All it’s doing is keeping innocent people in prison.”

Dunn’s wife said while driving to the prison that they were numb when he didn’t get out earlier this week.

“If you know a little about the story, you know we’ve had a lot of disappointments where we thought we’d finally get his freedom and it was snatched away,” Kira Dunn said. “So we were just bracing ourselves.”

Dunn’s situation is similar to what happened to Sandra Hemme.

The 64-year-old woman spent 43 years in prison for the fatal stabbing of a woman in St. Joseph in 1980. A judge on June 14 cited evidence of “actual innocence” and overturned her conviction. She had been the longest held wrongly incarcerated woman known in the U.S., according to the National Innocence Project, which worked to free Hemme.

Appeals by Bailey — all the way up to the Missouri Supreme Court — kept Hemme imprisoned at the Chillicothe Correctional Center. During a court hearing Friday, Judge Ryan Horsman said that if Hemme wasn’t released within hours, Bailey himself would have to appear in court with contempt of court on the table. Hemme was released later that day.

The judge also scolded Bailey’s office for calling the warden and telling prison officials not to release Hemme after he ordered her to be freed on her own recognizance.

Dunn, who is Black, was 18 in 1990 when 15-year-old Ricco Rogers was killed. Among the key evidence used to convict him of first-degree murder was testimony from two boys who were at the scene of the shooting. Both later recanted their testimony, saying they had been coerced by police and prosecutors.

At an evidentiary hearing in 2020, another judge agreed that a jury would likely find Dunn not guilty based on new evidence. But that judge, William Hickle, declined to exonerate Dunn, citing a 2016 Missouri Supreme Court ruling that only death row inmates — not those like Dunn sentenced to life in prison without the possibility of parole — could make a “freestanding” claim of actual innocence.

A 2021 law now allows prosecutors to seek court hearings in cases with new evidence of a wrongful conviction.

Although Bailey’s office is not required to oppose such efforts, lawyers for his office said at the hearing that initial testimony from two boys at the scene who identified Dunn as the shooter was correct, even though they recanted as adults.

He also raised opposition at a hearing for Lamar Johnson, who spent 28 years in prison for murder. Another St. Louis judge ruled in February 2023 that Johnson was wrongfully convicted, and he was freed.

Another hearing begins Aug. 21 for death row inmate Marcellus Williams. Bailey’s office is opposing the challenge to Williams’ conviction, too. Timing is of the essence: Williams is scheduled to be executed Sept. 24.

Steven Puro, professor emeritus of political science at St. Louis University, said Bailey is in a highly competitive race for the attorney general position with the primary quickly approaching on Aug. 6.

“Bailey is trying to show that he is, quote, ‘tough on crime,’ which is a very important Republican conservative position,” he said. “Clearly, he’s angering members of the judicial system that he will have to argue before in the future. But he’s making the strategic notion that he needs to get his name before the voters and try to use that to win the primary election.”

Michael Wolff, a former Missouri Supreme Court judge and chief justice, agreed, saying it seems this has become political for Bailey.

“But one of the things is that no matter what your beliefs are, if a court orders something to happen, it’s not your purview to say no,” he said. “The court has to be obeyed.”



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U.S. intercepts Russian, Chinese bombers off Alaskan coast

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7/24: The Daily Report with John Dickerson


7/24: The Daily Report with John Dickerson

44:14

The U.S. military intercepted several Russian and Chinese bombers in international airspace near the coast of Alaska Wednesday.

Two Russian Tu-95s and two Chinese H-6s entered what is known as the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone, North American Aerospace Defense Command said in a statement Wednesday night.

The aircraft were “detected, tracked and intercepted,” NORAD said. They remained in the Alaska ADIZ and did not enter U.S. airspace.

The bombers were intercepted by U.S. F-16 and F-35 fighter jets, along with Canadian CF-18s and other support aircraft, a U.S. defense official confirmed to CBS News.  

The official said that this marks the first time ever that Russian and Chinese aircraft have jointly entered the Alaska ADIZ, and the first time Chinese H-6s have encroached off Alaska.

While the Alaska ADIZ is considered part of international airspace, it is defined as an area where sovereign U.S. airspace ends but “that requires the ready identification of all aircraft in the interest of national security,” according to NORAD.  

The activity from the Russian and Chinese bombers was “not seen as a threat,” NORAD noted.

Tu-95 bomber
FTupolev Tu-95 bomber and missile platforms take part in a rehearsal for a 2020 Victory Day parade in Moscow’s Tverskaya Street, Russia on June 20, 2020. 

Sefa Karacan/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images


In February, the U.S. detected four Russian warplanes flying in the Alaska ADIZ, as was another Russian military aircraft in May 2023.

And in February 2023, Russian warplanes were intercepted there twice in one week. And that same month, a Chinese spy balloon was detected near Alaska before eventually making its way across the continental U.S. and being shot down off the coast of South Carolina. 

Eleanor Watson contributed to this report. 



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