Flight bookings between Canada and the United States have dropped by 70%, according to a new report by flight analytics company OAG Aviation. The steep decline comes as trade tensions rise between the two countries, leading to uncertainty and hesitation among travellers—especially Canadians.
The March 26 report reveals that travel demand between the two countries has “collapsed”, and many airlines are now adjusting their operations due to this sharp downturn.
Why Are People Canceling Trips?
Experts say the main reason is uncertainty caused by trade tensions. President Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican imports—set to begin April 2—has worried many Canadians, who now prefer to spend their money at home rather than in the U.S.
“Travellers are holding off on making reservations,” the OAG report explains.
“This drop reflects a serious decline in interest from the Canadian side.”
This shift aligns with recent appeals from Canadian leaders, including former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who encouraged Canadians to “choose Canada” and support their local economy.
Canadians Are Exploring Their Own Country
According to Dr. Ruby Dhalla, a former Canadian Member of Parliament:
“Instead of going to the U.S., families are now exploring cities, towns, and villages in Canada, learning more about the country’s history and culture.”
This trend reflects a broader national movement to support domestic tourism in response to rising political and economic tensions.
Airlines Cut Flight Capacity
Airlines are now reacting to the drop in demand by cutting seat capacity on Canada-U.S. routes—especially during the summer months of July and August, which are usually peak travel periods.
Between March and October, more than 320,000 seats have been removed from flights between the two countries.
“It’s going to be a nervous few months for airlines,” the report added. “Unless things improve, even the popular ‘snowbird’ market could be affected next year.”
Possible Airfare Deals for Travelers
Interestingly, while this is bad news for airlines, travellers who still plan to visit the U.S. from Canada may benefit from cheaper airfares in the coming months.
Airlines will likely try to stimulate demand by offering special deals and discounts, especially on routes where booking numbers are low.
Routes Being Cancelled
Canadian airlines are feeling the pinch more than U.S. airlines. One reason is that Canadians are driving the drop in demand, and American travellers usually stay loyal to U.S.-based carriers.
Flair Airlines, a Canadian low-cost carrier, recently announced it will cut several routes, including:
- Toronto to Nashville
- Calgary to Las Vegas
- Edmonton to Las Vegas
Air Canada also revealed in its latest earnings call that it is reducing capacity on certain U.S. leisure routes starting in March 2025, citing changing travel patterns.
The decline in flight bookings between Canada and the U.S. shows how political and economic decisions can quickly affect travel and tourism. As Canadians respond to trade uncertainty by choosing local trips over U.S. vacations, airlines are cutting back services.
Until the trade situation improves, expect to see fewer Canada-U.S. flights, cheaper fares on selected routes, and a continued shift in how Canadians choose to travel.