ST PAUL, Minnesota — People with breathing problems are likely to face some difficulties this summer, as the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency (MPCA) predicts a “moderately active” summer season for air quality.
While not expected to be a “extreme” year, MPCA scientists anticipate a number of events and warnings this summer due to high levels of ozone, wildfire smoke, and dust particles, which are a new category.
“Minnesotans rely on accurate, science-based forecasts to plan their days and protect their health,” stated Matt Taraldsen, an MPCA meteorologist.
“We want to provide people with the information they need to make informed decisions, whether it’s rescheduling a run, protecting a child with asthma, or delaying backyard chores. This summer, conditions are lining up for several air quality alert days, so being ‘air-aware’ is more important than ever.
Starting this summer, the MPCA will issue alerts for PM10, a type of pollution commonly associated with blowing dust. The addition comes after a significant dust event in October 2024, which caused unhealthy air quality in parts of Minnesota. Dust events will occur infrequently, perhaps once every two years.
MPCA is also launching a new Minnesota AQI Facebook page, which will provide forecasts, alerts, and real-time updates during major air quality events.
Here are some predictions for the upcoming air-quality season.
Ozone and drought conditions
- Forecast models predict four to seven days when ozone levels may reach unhealthy levels for some sensitive groups. That number is slightly above Minnesota’s historical average.
- Highest risk areas include the Twin Cities suburbs and parts of southeastern Minnesota near Rochester.
- Continuing drought and below-average rainfall are expected to lead to more sunny days, creating favorable conditions for ozone.
Wildfire smoke outlook
- Between 12 and 16 days of wildfire smoke impact are expected in Minnesota this summer.
- Drought-stressed vegetation and elevated wildfire activity in Canada will contribute to smoke risk.
- A neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern could lead to more variable wind patterns, increasing the likelihood that smoke will reach Minnesota.
- Smoke from wildfires can contain fine particles that pose health risks, even for healthy individuals.